Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 720
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1130 PM
UNTIL 800 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
FORT LEONARD WOOD MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 717...WW 718...WW 719...
DISCUSSION...SW MO FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MAINLY E OR SLIGHTLY N OF E...WITH LCLY DMG WIND AND WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON ITS NRN END. ASSOCIATED STORMS MAY INCREASE
SOMEWHAT AS SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER UPON
APPROACHING THE MS RVR VALLEY. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM/REDEVELOP INTO
WRN PART OF WW AS COLD FRONT NOW IN ERN KS INTERACTS WITH ELEVATED
POST-MCS STORMS NOW IN SE KS. THE RESULTING STORM CLUSTER SHOULD
ALSO MOVE E...OR PERHAPS A BIT S OF EAST...WITH A THREAT FOR SVR
HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 720 SEVERE TSTM AR IL MO 200430Z - 201300Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20SSE MVN/MOUNT VERNON IL/ - 65WSW TBN/FORT LEONARD WOOD MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /46W PXV - 5ENE SGF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 36978873 36299322 38479322 39138873
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 720 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 720
VALID 200630Z - 200740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..08/20/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...PAH...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 720
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-049-089-200740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE FULTON
MARION
$$
ILC003-005-027-051-055-077-081-087-119-121-133-145-153-157-163-
181-189-199-200740-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER BOND CLINTON
FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON MADISON
MARION MONROE PERRY
PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
UNION WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON
$$
MOC017-023-029-031-035-051-055-065-071-073-091-093-099-123-125-
131-133-141-143-149-151-157-161-169-179-181-183-186-187-189-201-
203-207-215-221-223-510-200740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAMDEN
CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER COLE
CRAWFORD DENT FRANKLIN
GASCONADE HOWELL IRON
JEFFERSON MADISON MARIES
MILLER MISSISSIPPI MORGAN
NEW MADRID OREGON OSAGE
PERRY PHELPS PULASKI
REYNOLDS RIPLEY ST. CHARLES
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS
SCOTT SHANNON STODDARD
TEXAS WASHINGTON WAYNE
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 720
VALID 200540Z - 200640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..08/20/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...PAH...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 720
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-049-089-200640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE FULTON
MARION
$$
ILC003-005-027-051-055-077-081-087-119-121-133-145-153-157-163-
181-189-199-200640-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER BOND CLINTON
FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON MADISON
MARION MONROE PERRY
PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
UNION WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON
$$
MOC017-023-029-031-035-051-055-065-071-073-091-093-099-123-125-
131-133-141-143-149-151-157-161-169-179-181-183-186-187-189-201-
203-207-215-221-223-510-200640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAMDEN
CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER COLE
CRAWFORD DENT FRANKLIN
GASCONADE HOWELL IRON
JEFFERSON MADISON MARIES
MILLER MISSISSIPPI MORGAN
NEW MADRID OREGON OSAGE
PERRY PHELPS PULASKI
REYNOLDS RIPLEY ST. CHARLES
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS
SCOTT SHANNON STODDARD
TEXAS WASHINGTON WAYNE
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.