Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 724
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK
LAKE ONTARIO
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1040 PM
UNTIL 100 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF ELMIRA NEW YORK TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
WATERTOWN NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 722...WW 723...
DISCUSSION...QLCS WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS WILL
CONTINUE GENERALLY ENE...WITH AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO AHEAD OF LINE.
NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTION
LATER THIS EVENING. BUT GIVEN MOIST LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT AND
STRENGTH OF DEEP WIND FIELD...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SVR LIKELY WILL
LINGER FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 23030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 724 SEVERE TSTM NY LO 210240Z - 210500Z
AXIS..35 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30WSW ELM/ELMIRA NY/ - 30NNW ART/WATERTOWN NY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 30NM E/W /38NE SLT - 61SSW YOW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..50 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.
LAT...LON 42007812 44407695 44407554 42007676
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 724 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 724
VALID 210335Z - 210440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..08/21/09
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 724
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC011-015-045-067-069-075-097-099-101-117-123-210440-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAYUGA CHEMUNG JEFFERSON
ONONDAGA ONTARIO OSWEGO
SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN
WAYNE YATES
$$
LOZ044-045-064-065-210440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.