Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1000 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF
SHERMAN TEXAS TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 722. WATCH NUMBER 722 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1000 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 723...WW 724...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING INVOF THE RED RVR
AND OVER THE ARKLATEX AS POCKET OF STRONG INSTABILITY IS
INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT BY STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW LVL
INFLOW WILL BE WEAK...INCREASING UPLIFT ABOVE FRONTAL
SURFACE...GLANCING INFLUENCE OF MO UPR VORT...AND MOIST LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DMGG WIND AND HAIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30020.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 725 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 210300Z - 210900Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30W GYI/SHERMAN TX/ - 10SE ELD/EL DORADO AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /30S ADM - 9SSE ELD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30020.
REPLACES WW 722..AR LA OK TX
LAT...LON 34509719 33909269 32319269 32919719
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 725 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 725
VALID 210830Z - 210900Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W GYI TO
10 SW GYI TO 35 SE GYI TO 30 S PRX TO 25 NNE TYR.
WW 725 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210900Z.
..PETERS..08/21/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 725
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC085-097-121-181-223-231-257-379-397-423-467-499-210900-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLLIN COOKE DENTON
GRAYSON HOPKINS HUNT
KAUFMAN RAINS ROCKWALL
SMITH VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 725
VALID 210745Z - 210840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ADM
TO 35 SSE DUA TO 15 SSE PRX TO 35 SE PRX TO 25 NE TYR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1943.
..PETERS..08/21/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 725
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC063-085-097-119-121-147-159-181-183-223-231-257-379-397-423-
449-459-467-499-210840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMP COLLIN COOKE
DELTA DENTON FANNIN
FRANKLIN GRAYSON GREGG
HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
RAINS ROCKWALL SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 725
VALID 210640Z - 210740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ADM
TO 25 WNW PRX TO 25 ESE PRX TO 10 S TXK TO 30 NW ELD TO 35 SSW
HOT.
..PETERS..08/21/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 725
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC011-013-019-027-073-091-103-139-210740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK
COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE MILLER
OUACHITA UNION
$$
LAC015-017-027-061-073-111-119-210740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE
LINCOLN OUACHITA UNION
WEBSTER
$$
OKC085-210740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOVE
$$
TXC063-067-085-097-119-121-147-159-181-183-203-223-231-257-277-
315-343-379-397-423-449-459-467-499-210740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMP CASS COLLIN
COOKE DELTA DENTON
FANNIN FRANKLIN GRAYSON
GREGG HARRISON HOPKINS
HUNT KAUFMAN LAMAR
MARION MORRIS RAINS
ROCKWALL SMITH TITUS
UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 725
VALID 210535Z - 210640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..08/21/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 725
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC011-013-019-027-057-061-073-081-091-099-103-109-133-139-
210640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER
NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE
SEVIER UNION
$$
LAC015-017-027-061-073-111-119-210640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE
LINCOLN OUACHITA UNION
WEBSTER
$$
OKC013-019-023-069-085-089-095-210640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW
JOHNSTON LOVE MCCURTAIN
MARSHALL
$$
TXC037-063-067-085-097-119-121-147-159-181-183-203-223-231-257-
277-315-343-379-387-397-423-449-459-467-499-210640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
COLLIN COOKE DELTA
DENTON FANNIN FRANKLIN
GRAYSON GREGG HARRISON
HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
LAMAR MARION MORRIS
RAINS RED RIVER ROCKWALL
SMITH TITUS UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 725
VALID 210335Z - 210440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..08/21/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 725
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC011-013-019-027-057-061-073-081-091-099-103-109-133-139-
210440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER
NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE
SEVIER UNION
$$
LAC015-017-027-061-073-111-119-210440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE
LINCOLN OUACHITA UNION
WEBSTER
$$
OKC013-019-023-069-085-089-095-210440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW
JOHNSTON LOVE MCCURTAIN
MARSHALL
$$
TXC037-063-067-085-097-119-121-147-159-181-183-203-223-231-257-
277-315-343-379-387-397-423-449-459-467-499-210440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
COLLIN COOKE DELTA
DENTON FANNIN FRANKLIN
GRAYSON GREGG HARRISON
HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
LAMAR MARION MORRIS
RAINS RED RIVER ROCKWALL
SMITH TITUS UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.