Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT
MASSACHUSETTS
NEW HAMPSHIRE
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
VERMONT
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1050 AM UNTIL 700
PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BERLIN NEW HAMPSHIRE TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MONTICELLO
NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM SERN NY THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 2500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 35-45 KT
BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOWING
SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...DIAL
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 726 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NH NY PA VT 211450Z - 212300Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10NW BML/BERLIN NH/ - 30SSE MSV/MONTICELLO NY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /43SSE YSC - 14N SAX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 44746980 41297312 41297601 44747284
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 726 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 726
VALID 212040Z - 212140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BDR
TO 10 E PSF TO 15 SSE MWN TO 15 NE BML.
..DIAL..08/21/09
ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 726
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-005-212140-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD LITCHFIELD
$$
MEC007-025-212140-
ME
. MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN SOMERSET
$$
MAC003-212140-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
$$
NYC087-119-212140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ROCKLAND WESTCHESTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 726
VALID 211950Z - 212040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MSV TO
25 NNW POU TO 15 NE LEB TO 25 W BML.
..DIAL..08/21/09
ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 726
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-003-005-013-015-212040-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD
TOLLAND WINDHAM
$$
MEC007-017-025-212040-
ME
. MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN OXFORD SOMERSET
$$
MAC003-011-013-015-017-027-212040-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX WORCESTER
$$
NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-212040-
NH
. NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE
COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH
MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD
SULLIVAN
$$
NYC021-027-071-079-087-119-212040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA DUTCHESS ORANGE
PUTNAM ROCKLAND WESTCHESTER
$$
VTC025-212040-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WINDHAM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 726
VALID 211835Z - 211940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E AVP TO
15 NNE MSV TO 15 S ALB TO 15 S RUT TO 10 S EFK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1946
..DIAL..08/21/09
ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 726
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-003-005-013-015-211940-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD
TOLLAND WINDHAM
$$
MAC003-011-013-015-017-027-211940-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX WORCESTER
$$
NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-211940-
NH
. NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE
COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH
MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD
SULLIVAN
$$
NYC021-027-039-071-079-083-087-105-111-119-211940-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA DUTCHESS GREENE
ORANGE PUTNAM RENSSELAER
ROCKLAND SULLIVAN ULSTER
WESTCHESTER
$$
PAC103-211940-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PIKE
$$
VTC003-005-017-025-027-211940-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNINGTON CALEDONIA ORANGE
WINDHAM WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 726
VALID 211640Z - 211740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW MSV
TO 30 SW ALB TO 15 WSW GFL TO 25 NW GFL.
..DIAL..08/21/09
ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 726
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-003-005-013-015-211740-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD
TOLLAND WINDHAM
$$
MAC003-011-013-015-017-027-211740-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX WORCESTER
$$
NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-211740-
NH
. NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE
COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH
MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD
SULLIVAN
$$
NYC001-021-025-027-039-071-079-083-087-091-093-105-111-113-115-
119-211740-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY COLUMBIA DELAWARE
DUTCHESS GREENE ORANGE
PUTNAM RENSSELAER ROCKLAND
SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SULLIVAN
ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON
WESTCHESTER
$$
PAC069-103-127-211740-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LACKAWANNA PIKE WAYNE
$$
VTC001-003-005-007-015-017-021-023-025-027-211740-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADDISON BENNINGTON CALEDONIA
CHITTENDEN LAMOILLE ORANGE
RUTLAND WASHINGTON WINDHAM
WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.