Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 727
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NEW JERSEY
EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1130 AM UNTIL 800
PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ALLENTOWN PENNSYLVANIA TO 30 MILES WEST OF WILMINGTON DELAWARE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 726...
DISCUSSION...STORMS ACROSS E-CNTRL PA ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS
THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR WHERE 2000-2500
MLCAPE IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WARM
SECTOR WHERE ONLY A WEAK CAP EXISTS. BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WILL
SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
THREAT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...DIAL
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 727 SEVERE TSTM NJ NY PA CW 211530Z - 220000Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NE ABE/ALLENTOWN PA/ - 30W ILG/WILMINGTON DE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /16W SAX - 40ENE EMI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 41047354 39667483 39667747 41047623
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 727 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 727
VALID 212045Z - 212140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ILG
TO 10 S TTN TO 10 NW EWR TO 25 N EWR.
..DIAL..08/21/09
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 727
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-021-023-025-029-039-212140-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN
ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON
MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH
OCEAN UNION
$$
NYC005-047-061-081-085-212140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRONX KINGS NEW YORK
QUEENS RICHMOND
$$
PAC101-212140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PHILADELPHIA
$$
ANZ338-212140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW YORK HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 727
VALID 211950Z - 212040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ILG TO
15 W TTN TO 35 NW EWR.
..DIAL..08/21/09
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 727
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-039-
212040-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN
ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON
MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH
MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC
SOMERSET UNION
$$
NYC005-047-061-081-085-212040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRONX KINGS NEW YORK
QUEENS RICHMOND
$$
PAC045-091-101-212040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE MONTGOMERY PHILADELPHIA
$$
ANZ338-212040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW YORK HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 727
VALID 211835Z - 211940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ILG TO
10 NE ABE TO 30 ESE AVP.
..DIAL..08/21/09
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 727
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-
039-041-211940-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN
ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON
HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN
PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX
UNION WARREN
$$
NYC005-047-061-081-085-211940-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRONX KINGS NEW YORK
QUEENS RICHMOND
$$
PAC017-029-045-091-095-101-211940-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCKS CHESTER DELAWARE
MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON PHILADELPHIA
$$
ANZ338-211940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW YORK HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 727
VALID 211640Z - 211740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E HGR TO
5 S CXY TO 15 N CXY.
..DIAL..08/21/09
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 727
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-
039-041-211740-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN
ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON
HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN
PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX
UNION WARREN
$$
NYC005-047-061-081-085-211740-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRONX KINGS NEW YORK
QUEENS RICHMOND
$$
PAC011-017-025-029-043-045-071-075-077-089-091-095-101-107-133-
211740-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKS BUCKS CARBON
CHESTER DAUPHIN DELAWARE
LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH
MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON
PHILADELPHIA SCHUYLKILL YORK
$$
ANZ338-211740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW YORK HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.