Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 733
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
755 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MONTANA
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 755 PM UNTIL
100 AM MDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
WILLISTON NORTH DAKOTA TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEMMON SOUTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 732...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO INCREASE/DEVELOP OVER WW
AREA THROUGH EARLY MON...IN ZONE OF INCREASING LOW LVL WAA/UPR
DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING WRN WY.
STORMS NOW OVER NE MT LIKELY ARE HIGH BASED. THESE SHOULD DEVELOP
DOWNWARD WITH TIME AS THEY ENCOUNTER MOISTENING ELY LOW LVL FLOW N
OF SE MT SFC LOW. OTHER STORMS...LIKELY MORE NEARLY
SFC-BASED...SHOULD FORM SWD AND EWD INTO WRN ND...IN REGION OF
GREATER LOW LVL SPEED/ DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. WHILE LOW LVL CIN WILL BE
A FACTOR OPPOSING A WIDESPREAD TORNADIC THREAT...ABSENCE OF STRONG
LOW LVL LINEAR FORCING AND ENLARGED LOW LVL HODOGRAPHS WITH
STRENGTHENING LLJ SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TORNADOES LATER THIS
EVE/EARLY MON...IN ADDITION TO SVR HAIL AND WIND.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 733 TORNADO MT ND SD 240155Z - 240700Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60NNW ISN/WILLISTON ND/ - 30SW Y22/LEMMON SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /52NNW ISN - 50NW DPR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 48950181 45590044 45590477 48950644
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 733 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 733
VALID 240645Z - 240700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BIS TO
35 N BHK TO 25 NNW GDV TO 65 NNE OLF.
WW 733 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240700Z.
..PETERS..08/24/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 733
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC083-085-091-109-240700-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN
WIBAUX
$$
NDC007-013-023-025-033-053-055-057-059-061-065-075-089-101-105-
240700-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BILLINGS BURKE DIVIDE
DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY MCKENZIE
MCLEAN MERCER MORTON
MOUNTRAIL OLIVER RENVILLE
STARK WARD WILLIAMS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 733
VALID 240545Z - 240640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MBG
TO 25 W Y22 TO 20 NE BHK TO 40 W GDV.
..PETERS..08/24/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 733
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC019-021-055-083-085-091-105-109-240640-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DANIELS DAWSON MCCONE
RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN
VALLEY WIBAUX
$$
NDC001-007-013-023-025-033-037-041-053-055-057-059-061-065-075-
085-087-089-101-105-240640-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BURKE
DIVIDE DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY
GRANT HETTINGER MCKENZIE
MCLEAN MERCER MORTON
MOUNTRAIL OLIVER RENVILLE
SIOUX SLOPE STARK
WARD WILLIAMS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 733
VALID 240455Z - 240540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..08/24/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 733
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-019-021-025-055-079-083-085-091-105-109-240540-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER DANIELS DAWSON
FALLON MCCONE PRAIRIE
RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN
VALLEY WIBAUX
$$
NDC001-007-011-013-023-025-033-037-041-053-055-057-059-061-065-
075-085-087-089-101-105-240540-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
BURKE DIVIDE DUNN
GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER
MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER
MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER
RENVILLE SIOUX SLOPE
STARK WARD WILLIAMS
$$
SDC063-105-240540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDING PERKINS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 733
VALID 240335Z - 240440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..08/24/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 733
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-019-021-025-055-079-083-085-091-105-109-240440-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER DANIELS DAWSON
FALLON MCCONE PRAIRIE
RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN
VALLEY WIBAUX
$$
NDC001-007-011-013-023-025-033-037-041-053-055-057-059-061-065-
075-085-087-089-101-105-240440-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
BURKE DIVIDE DUNN
GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER
MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER
MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER
RENVILLE SIOUX SLOPE
STARK WARD WILLIAMS
$$
SDC063-105-240440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDING PERKINS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.