Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF WESTERN NEW YORK
SMALL PART OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
LAKE ONTARIO
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF WATERTOWN NEW YORK TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
ELMIRA NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 735...WW 736...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ALONG COLD FRONT JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN NY. WITH A VERY MOIST AND
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS COUPLED WITH THE 40KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY AS ACTIVITY DEVELOP EWD THIS
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23030.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 737 SEVERE TSTM NY PA LO 231810Z - 240000Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30WNW ART/WATERTOWN NY/ - 50SSW ELM/ELMIRA NY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /63NNW SYR - 31E SLT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.
LAT...LON 44157526 41497601 41497852 44157788
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 737 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 737
VALID 232335Z - 240000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW AVP
TO 20 SSE BGM.
WW 737 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240000Z.
..SMITH..07/23/08
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 737
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC025-105-240000-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE SULLIVAN
$$
PAC069-079-103-115-127-131-240000-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LACKAWANNA LUZERNE PIKE
SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 737
VALID 232220Z - 232340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE IPT
TO 25 S BGM.
..SMITH..07/23/08
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 737
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC025-105-232340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE SULLIVAN
$$
PAC069-079-103-115-127-131-232340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LACKAWANNA LUZERNE PIKE
SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 737
VALID 232150Z - 232240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BFD TO
15 SSE BGM.
..SMITH..07/23/08
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 737
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC025-105-232240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE SULLIVAN
$$
PAC069-079-083-103-105-115-117-127-131-232240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LACKAWANNA LUZERNE MCKEAN
PIKE POTTER SUSQUEHANNA
TIOGA WAYNE WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 737
VALID 232030Z - 232140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BFD
TO 30 S ROC TO 20 NW ROC TO 65 W ART.
..SMITH..07/23/08
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 737
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-007-011-015-017-023-025-045-049-051-053-055-065-067-069-
075-077-097-099-101-105-107-109-117-123-232140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY BROOME CAYUGA
CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND
DELAWARE JEFFERSON LEWIS
LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE
ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO
OSWEGO OTSEGO SCHUYLER
SENECA STEUBEN SULLIVAN
TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE
YATES
$$
PAC015-069-079-083-103-105-115-117-127-131-232140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE
MCKEAN PIKE POTTER
SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA WAYNE
WYOMING
$$
LOZ043-044-045-063-064-065-232140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.