Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
730 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 730 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTH OF
BISMARCK NORTH DAKOTA TO 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DEVILS LAKE
NORTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS WILL FOCUS INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL ND THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH SUFFICIENT INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN
MODERATE MUCAPE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...HOWEVER
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ORGANIZATION
INTO CLUSTERS/LINES AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 738 SEVERE TSTM ND 110030Z - 110700Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60S BIS/BISMARCK ND/ - 65NNE DVL/DEVILS LAKE ND/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /52S BIS - 71SW YWG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26020.
LAT...LON 45900220 48979991 48979683 45909929
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 738 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 738
VALID 110450Z - 110540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E Y22 TO
65 N DVL.
..MEAD..09/11/09
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 738
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC005-015-019-021-027-029-031-037-043-045-047-051-059-063-065-
067-069-071-083-085-093-095-099-103-110540-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENSON BURLEIGH CAVALIER
DICKEY EDDY EMMONS
FOSTER GRANT KIDDER
LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH
MORTON NELSON OLIVER
PEMBINA PIERCE RAMSEY
SHERIDAN SIOUX STUTSMAN
TOWNER WALSH WELLS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 738
VALID 110340Z - 110440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW BIS
TO 70 NNW DVL.
..MEAD..09/11/09
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 738
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC005-015-019-021-027-029-031-037-043-045-047-051-059-063-065-
067-069-071-079-083-085-093-095-099-103-110440-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENSON BURLEIGH CAVALIER
DICKEY EDDY EMMONS
FOSTER GRANT KIDDER
LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH
MORTON NELSON OLIVER
PEMBINA PIERCE RAMSEY
ROLETTE SHERIDAN SIOUX
STUTSMAN TOWNER WALSH
WELLS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 738
VALID 110240Z - 110340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..09/11/09
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 738
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC005-015-019-021-027-029-031-037-043-045-047-049-051-055-059-
063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-093-095-099-103-110340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENSON BURLEIGH CAVALIER
DICKEY EDDY EMMONS
FOSTER GRANT KIDDER
LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY
MCINTOSH MCLEAN MORTON
NELSON OLIVER PEMBINA
PIERCE RAMSEY ROLETTE
SHERIDAN SIOUX STUTSMAN
TOWNER WALSH WELLS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 738
VALID 110140Z - 110240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..09/11/09
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 738
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC005-015-019-021-027-029-031-037-043-045-047-049-051-055-059-
063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-093-095-099-103-110240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENSON BURLEIGH CAVALIER
DICKEY EDDY EMMONS
FOSTER GRANT KIDDER
LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY
MCINTOSH MCLEAN MORTON
NELSON OLIVER PEMBINA
PIERCE RAMSEY ROLETTE
SHERIDAN SIOUX STUTSMAN
TOWNER WALSH WELLS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.