Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF EASTERN MONTANA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF
GLASGOW MONTANA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF MILES CITY MONTANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING NNWWD THRU CENTRAL MT
WITH A 35-40KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET ERN MT. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE ERN MT AND WITH 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT 1-2
HOURS. INITIALLY STORMS WILL FORM ECENTRAL MT THEN MOVE N/NEWD THRU
THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THREAT OF BOTH LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 18030.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 740 SEVERE TSTM MT 132035Z - 140400Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55N GGW/GLASGOW MT/ - 30S MLS/MILES CITY MT/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /48N GGW - 23S MLS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 18030.
LAT...LON 49000462 45970401 45970775 49000861
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 740 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 740
VALID 140230Z - 140340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE BHK TO
25 NNE MLS TO 60 E LWT.
..BROYLES..09/14/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 740
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC019-021-033-055-071-079-083-085-091-105-109-140340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DANIELS DAWSON GARFIELD
MCCONE PHILLIPS PRAIRIE
RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN
VALLEY WIBAUX
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 740
VALID 132335Z - 140040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..09/13/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 740
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC017-019-021-025-033-055-071-079-083-085-087-091-105-109-
140040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON
FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE
PHILLIPS PRAIRIE RICHLAND
ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN
VALLEY WIBAUX
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 740
VALID 132240Z - 132340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..09/13/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 740
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC017-019-021-025-033-055-071-079-083-085-087-091-105-109-
132340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON
FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE
PHILLIPS PRAIRIE RICHLAND
ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN
VALLEY WIBAUX
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 740
VALID 132130Z - 132240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..09/13/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 740
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC017-019-021-025-033-055-071-079-083-085-087-091-105-109-
132240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON
FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE
PHILLIPS PRAIRIE RICHLAND
ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN
VALLEY WIBAUX
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.