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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EXTREME NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS MO/SE KS AND OK THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHILE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM
2000-3000 J/KG BASED ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F. IT APPEARS THAT LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT AS
STORMS GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE BAND ALONG THE FRONT AND
SPREAD EWD/SEWD.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 742 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK TX 211900Z - 220300Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50NNW SGF/SPRINGFIELD MO/ - 40SSE SPS/WICHITA FALLS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /37NNW SGF - 38SSE SPS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 37889236 33439693 33439954 37889511
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 742 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 742
VALID 220135Z - 220240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW GYI
TO 20 NNE ADM TO 10 NNW FYV.
..GRAMS..09/22/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 742
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC015-033-047-087-131-143-220240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN
MADISON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON
$$
OKC001-005-013-023-029-061-069-077-079-095-121-127-135-220240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CHOCTAW COAL HASKELL
JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE
MARSHALL PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA
SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 742
VALID 220030Z - 220140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MWL
TO 25 NW ADM TO 30 NE CQB TO 25 ESE BVO TO 10 ESE GMJ.
..GRAMS..09/22/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 742
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-220140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
OKC001-005-013-019-021-029-035-037-041-061-063-069-077-079-085-
091-095-097-099-101-107-111-115-121-123-131-133-135-143-145-
220140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CARTER CHEROKEE COAL
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON
LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE
MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES
MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG
PONTOTOC ROGERS SEMINOLE
SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 742
VALID 212340Z - 220040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE SPS
TO 10 SSW CQB TO 25 E BVO TO 20 SSE UMN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2025.
..GRAMS..09/21/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 742
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-220040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-043-077-109-119-145-209-220040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN GREENE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON
STONE
$$
OKC001-005-013-019-021-029-035-037-041-049-061-063-069-077-079-
081-085-091-095-097-099-101-107-111-115-121-123-125-131-133-135-
143-145-220040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CARTER CHEROKEE COAL
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
GARVIN HASKELL HUGHES
JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE
LINCOLN LOVE MCINTOSH
MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY
MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
OTTAWA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE
SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 742
VALID 212240Z - 212340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SPS TO
15 ESE OKC TO 35 ENE BVO TO 30 WSW TBN.
..GRAMS..09/21/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 742
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-212340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-043-077-109-119-145-209-212340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN GREENE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON
STONE
$$
OKC001-005-013-019-021-027-029-035-037-041-049-061-063-067-069-
077-079-081-085-087-091-095-097-099-101-107-111-115-121-123-125-
131-133-135-137-143-145-212340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CARTER CHEROKEE CLEVELAND
COAL CRAIG CREEK
DELAWARE GARVIN HASKELL
HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN
LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH
MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY
MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
OTTAWA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE
SEQUOYAH STEPHENS TULSA
WAGONER
$$
TXC077-212340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 742
VALID 212135Z - 212240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW SPS
TO 15 ENE OKC TO 45 N SGF.
..GRAMS..09/21/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 742
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-212240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-043-057-059-077-097-109-119-145-167-209-212240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN DADE
DALLAS GREENE JASPER
LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON
POLK STONE
$$
OKC001-005-013-019-021-027-029-035-037-041-049-061-063-067-069-
077-079-081-085-087-091-095-097-099-101-107-111-115-121-123-125-
131-133-135-137-143-145-212240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CARTER CHEROKEE CLEVELAND
COAL CRAIG CREEK
DELAWARE GARVIN HASKELL
HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN
LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH
MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY
MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
OTTAWA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE
SEQUOYAH STEPHENS TULSA
WAGONER
$$
TXC077-212240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 742
VALID 212030Z - 212140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BOTHWELL..09/21/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 742
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-212140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC021-037-099-125-133-212140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE
MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
$$
MOC009-011-015-029-043-057-059-077-085-097-109-119-141-145-167-
209-212140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CAMDEN CHRISTIAN DADE
DALLAS GREENE HICKORY
JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD
MORGAN NEWTON POLK
STONE
$$
OKC001-005-013-019-021-027-029-031-033-035-037-041-049-051-061-
063-067-069-077-079-081-083-085-087-091-095-097-099-101-105-107-
109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-131-133-135-137-143-145-147-
212140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CARTER CHEROKEE CLEVELAND
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
GARVIN GRADY HASKELL
HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN
LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN
MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES
MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOWATA
OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE
SEQUOYAH STEPHENS TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
TXC009-077-485-212140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER CLAY WICHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.