Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 430 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF
DALLAS TEXAS TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STEPHENVILLE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 742...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
JUST E OF SPS TO E OF ABI. STRONG INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AROUND 30 KT WILL SUPPORT A FEW PERSISTENT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS...AS WELL AS STORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. LATER THIS
EVENING...STORM INTERACTIONS COULD LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MORE
OF A LINEAR MCS...WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 743 SEVERE TSTM TX 212130Z - 220400Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50N DAL/DALLAS TX/ - 30SW SEP/STEPHENVILLE TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /41SSE ADM - 67WNW ACT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
LAT...LON 33569529 31899701 31890008 33569841
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 743 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 743
VALID 220135Z - 220240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE BWD
TO 20 SSW MWL TO 15 SW GYI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2026.
..GRAMS..09/22/09
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 743
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC035-049-085-093-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-147-181-193-217-
221-223-231-251-257-277-281-333-367-397-425-439-220240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE BROWN COLLIN
COMANCHE CORYELL DALLAS
DELTA DENTON EASTLAND
ELLIS ERATH FANNIN
GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL
HOOD HOPKINS HUNT
JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR
LAMPASAS MILLS PARKER
ROCKWALL SOMERVELL TARRANT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 743
VALID 220035Z - 220140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S ABI TO
30 NW SEP TO 55 ESE SPS.
..GRAMS..09/22/09
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 743
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC035-049-083-085-093-097-113-119-121-133-139-143-147-181-217-
221-223-231-251-257-277-363-367-397-399-425-439-497-220140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE BROWN COLEMAN
COLLIN COMANCHE COOKE
DALLAS DELTA DENTON
EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH
FANNIN GRAYSON HILL
HOOD HOPKINS HUNT
JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR
PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL
RUNNELS SOMERVELL TARRANT
WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 743
VALID 212345Z - 220040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW ABI
TO 35 W MWL TO 40 SE SPS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2025.
..GRAMS..09/21/09
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 743
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC035-049-059-083-085-093-097-113-119-121-133-139-143-147-181-
217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-337-363-367-397-399-425-429-439-
497-220040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN
COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE
COOKE DALLAS DELTA
DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS
ERATH FANNIN GRAYSON
HILL HOOD HOPKINS
HUNT JACK JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMAR MONTAGUE
PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL
RUNNELS SOMERVELL STEPHENS
TARRANT WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 743
VALID 212240Z - 212340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..09/21/09
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 743
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC035-049-059-083-085-093-097-113-119-121-133-139-143-147-181-
217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-337-363-367-397-399-417-425-429-
439-497-503-212340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN
COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE
COOKE DALLAS DELTA
DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS
ERATH FANNIN GRAYSON
HILL HOOD HOPKINS
HUNT JACK JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMAR MONTAGUE
PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL
RUNNELS SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL
STEPHENS TARRANT WISE
YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.