Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA
MUCH OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF SALEM ILLINOIS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
PADUCAH KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AHEAD
OF UPPER LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS MO. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
COUPLED WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS AS STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP EWD.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 744 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY MO 261930Z - 270200Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45ENE SLO/SALEM IL/ - 35SSE PAH/PADUCAH KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /57SW TTH - 52NE DYR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
LAT...LON 38888680 36598718 36598987 38888958
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 744 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 744
VALID 262330Z - 270040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE HOP TO
40 NNW HOP TO 25 E EVV TO 25 E EVV TO 35 NNE OWB.
STRONGER STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST OF WW 744. IT
APPEARS THAT BY 00Z...THE SEVERE THERAT WILL HAVE ENDED ACROSS
REMAINING PARTS OF WW 744.
..DIAL..09/26/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 744
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC147-163-270040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SPENCER VANDERBURGH
$$
KYC059-101-107-149-177-270040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DAVIESS HENDERSON HOPKINS
MCLEAN MUHLENBERG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 744
VALID 262235Z - 262340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE HOP TO
35 NE PAH TO 40 WSW EVV TO 30 NNE EVV TO 45 SSW BMG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 744
..DIAL..09/26/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 744
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC059-069-262340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GALLATIN HARDIN
$$
INC125-129-147-163-173-262340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PIKE POSEY SPENCER
VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC059-101-107-149-177-225-233-262340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DAVIESS HENDERSON HOPKINS
MCLEAN MUHLENBERG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 744
VALID 262145Z - 262240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CGI
TO 30 ESE MVN TO 35 S HUF.
..DIAL..09/26/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 744
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-047-059-065-069-087-127-151-153-165-185-193-199-262240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS GALLATIN
HAMILTON HARDIN JOHNSON
MASSAC POPE PULASKI
SALINE WABASH WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
INC027-051-083-125-129-147-163-173-262240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DAVIESS GIBSON KNOX
PIKE POSEY SPENCER
VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-039-055-059-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-225-
233-262240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CARLISLE
CRITTENDEN DAVIESS HENDERSON
HICKMAN HOPKINS LIVINGSTON
LYON MCCRACKEN MCLEAN
MARSHALL MUHLENBERG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
MOC133-201-207-262240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI SCOTT STODDARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 744
VALID 262025Z - 262140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..09/26/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 744
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-101-127-145-151-153-159-
165-181-185-191-193-199-262140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LAWRENCE MASSAC PERRY
POPE PULASKI RICHLAND
SALINE UNION WABASH
WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON
$$
INC027-051-083-125-129-147-163-173-262140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DAVIESS GIBSON KNOX
PIKE POSEY SPENCER
VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-039-055-059-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-225-
233-262140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CARLISLE
CRITTENDEN DAVIESS HENDERSON
HICKMAN HOPKINS LIVINGSTON
LYON MCCRACKEN MCLEAN
MARSHALL MUHLENBERG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
MOC031-133-157-201-207-262140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSISSIPPI PERRY
SCOTT STODDARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.