Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA
PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF GILLETTE WYOMING TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
CHAMBERLAIN SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 744...WW 745...
DISCUSSION...AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED WITH LITTLE REMAINING CINH
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30-40KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VICINITY OF
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS THAT WILL ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29020.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 746 SEVERE TSTM MT NE SD WY 242005Z - 250300Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25WNW GCC/GILLETTE WY/ - 65SSE 9V9/CHAMBERLAIN SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM N/S /35NNE CZI - 27NNW ONL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29020.
LAT...LON 45790600 44209883 41599883 43180600
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 746 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 746
VALID 250140Z - 250240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..07/25/08
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...LBF...CYS...UNR...FSD...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 746
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC009-015-017-031-041-045-089-091-103-113-149-161-165-171-
250240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BOYD BROWN
CHERRY CUSTER DAWES
HOLT HOOKER KEYA PAHA
LOGAN ROCK SHERIDAN
SIOUX THOMAS
$$
SDC007-015-019-023-031-033-041-047-053-055-071-075-081-085-093-
095-103-105-113-117-121-123-137-250240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BRULE BUTTE
CHARLES MIX CORSON CUSTER
DEWEY FALL RIVER GREGORY
HAAKON JACKSON JONES
LAWRENCE LYMAN MEADE
MELLETTE PENNINGTON PERKINS
SHANNON STANLEY TODD
TRIPP ZIEBACH
$$
WYC005-009-011-027-045-250240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK
NIOBRARA WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 746
VALID 250045Z - 250140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW GCC TO
40 SE 2WX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1903
..SMITH..07/25/08
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...LBF...CYS...UNR...FSD...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 746
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC009-015-017-031-041-045-089-091-103-113-149-161-165-171-
250140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BOYD BROWN
CHERRY CUSTER DAWES
HOLT HOOKER KEYA PAHA
LOGAN ROCK SHERIDAN
SIOUX THOMAS
$$
SDC007-015-019-023-031-033-041-047-053-055-071-075-081-085-093-
095-103-113-117-121-123-137-250140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BRULE BUTTE
CHARLES MIX CORSON CUSTER
DEWEY FALL RIVER GREGORY
HAAKON JACKSON JONES
LAWRENCE LYMAN MEADE
MELLETTE PENNINGTON SHANNON
STANLEY TODD TRIPP
ZIEBACH
$$
WYC005-009-011-027-045-250140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK
NIOBRARA WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 746
VALID 242350Z - 250040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW GCC TO
40 SE 2WX.
..SMITH..07/24/08
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...LBF...CYS...UNR...FSD...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 746
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC009-015-017-031-041-045-089-091-103-113-149-161-165-171-
250040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BOYD BROWN
CHERRY CUSTER DAWES
HOLT HOOKER KEYA PAHA
LOGAN ROCK SHERIDAN
SIOUX THOMAS
$$
SDC007-015-019-023-031-033-041-047-053-055-071-075-081-085-093-
095-103-113-117-121-123-137-250040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BRULE BUTTE
CHARLES MIX CORSON CUSTER
DEWEY FALL RIVER GREGORY
HAAKON JACKSON JONES
LAWRENCE LYMAN MEADE
MELLETTE PENNINGTON SHANNON
STANLEY TODD TRIPP
ZIEBACH
$$
WYC005-009-011-027-045-250040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK
NIOBRARA WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 746
VALID 242240Z - 242340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
PERKINS AND ZIEBACH COUNTIES IN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE ADDED TO THE
WW SHORTLY...PER COORDINATION WITH LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
..SMITH..07/24/08
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...LBF...CYS...UNR...FSD...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 746
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-075-242340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER POWDER RIVER
$$
NEC015-017-031-045-089-103-149-161-165-242340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOYD BROWN CHERRY
DAWES HOLT KEYA PAHA
ROCK SHERIDAN SIOUX
$$
SDC007-015-019-023-033-047-053-055-063-071-075-081-085-093-095-
103-113-117-121-123-242340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BRULE BUTTE
CHARLES MIX CUSTER FALL RIVER
GREGORY HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON JONES LAWRENCE
LYMAN MEADE MELLETTE
PENNINGTON SHANNON STANLEY
TODD TRIPP
$$
WYC005-009-011-027-045-242340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK
NIOBRARA WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 746
VALID 242150Z - 242240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..07/24/08
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...LBF...CYS...UNR...FSD...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 746
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-075-242240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER POWDER RIVER
$$
NEC015-017-031-045-089-103-149-161-165-242240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOYD BROWN CHERRY
DAWES HOLT KEYA PAHA
ROCK SHERIDAN SIOUX
$$
SDC007-015-019-023-033-047-053-055-063-071-075-081-085-093-095-
103-113-117-121-123-242240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BRULE BUTTE
CHARLES MIX CUSTER FALL RIVER
GREGORY HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON JONES LAWRENCE
LYMAN MEADE MELLETTE
PENNINGTON SHANNON STANLEY
TODD TRIPP
$$
WYC005-009-011-027-045-242240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK
NIOBRARA WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.