Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1045 PM UNTIL
600 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
FORT WAYNE INDIANA TO 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF SAGINAW
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 745...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING ALONG STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT OVER
ERN WI/NRN IL EXPECTED TO FUSE INTO A NEARLY SOLID LINE AS UPR VORT
NOW NEAR MSP AMPLIFIES SEWD. ALTHOUGH SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND UPSTREAM MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT
...STRENGTH OF DEEP WIND FIELD...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND
FRONTAL UPLIFT TOGETHER EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A LINE OF STG TO SVR
CONVECTION/STORMS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING STRUCTURES COULD
YIELD DMGG WIND...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IN
LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26050.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 746 SEVERE TSTM IN MI OH LE LH LM 280245Z - 281000Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35SW FWA/FORT WAYNE IN/ - 35WNW MBS/SAGINAW MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /30SW FWA - 30WNW MBS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050.
LAT...LON 40618745 43708662 43708283 40618383
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 746 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 746
VALID 280630Z - 280740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW FDY TO
20 WNW TOL TO 20 ENE TOL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2041.
..PETERS..09/28/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 746
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC003-051-069-137-280740-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN FULTON HENRY
PUTNAM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 746
VALID 280535Z - 280640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MIE
TO 30 SW JXN TO 15 SE JXN TO 20 NW MBS.
..PETERS..09/28/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 746
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-033-053-069-075-151-179-183-280640-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
DE KALB GRANT HUNTINGTON
JAY STEUBEN WELLS
WHITLEY
$$
MIC017-023-049-059-063-087-091-093-099-115-125-145-147-151-155-
157-161-163-280640-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY BRANCH GENESEE
HILLSDALE HURON LAPEER
LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MONROE OAKLAND SAGINAW
ST. CLAIR SANILAC SHIAWASSEE
TUSCOLA WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
OHC003-039-051-069-125-137-161-171-280640-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN DEFIANCE FULTON
HENRY PAULDING PUTNAM
VAN WERT WILLIAMS
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-
280640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 746
VALID 280445Z - 280540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSE VPZ TO
10 ESE BEH TO 10 SSE MKG TO 35 WNW MBS.
..DIAL..09/28/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 746
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-075-085-087-091-099-103-
113-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-280540-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
CASS DE KALB ELKHART
FULTON GRANT HUNTINGTON
JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE
LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI
NOBLE PULASKI ST. JOSEPH
STARKE STEUBEN WABASH
WELLS WHITE WHITLEY
$$
MIC005-015-017-023-025-027-037-045-049-057-059-063-065-067-075-
077-081-087-091-093-099-111-115-117-125-139-145-147-149-151-155-
157-159-161-163-280540-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BAY
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
CLINTON EATON GENESEE
GRATIOT HILLSDALE HURON
INGHAM IONIA JACKSON
KALAMAZOO KENT LAPEER
LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MIDLAND MONROE MONTCALM
OAKLAND OTTAWA SAGINAW
ST. CLAIR ST. JOSEPH SANILAC
SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA VAN BUREN
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
OHC003-039-051-069-125-137-161-171-280540-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN DEFIANCE FULTON
HENRY PAULDING PUTNAM
VAN WERT WILLIAMS
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-
280540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
