Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 748
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
LAKE ONTARIO
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1135 AM UNTIL
300 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF BUFFALO NEW YORK TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
UTICA NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG S/WV TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATING
EWD INTO NY ATTM. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE
LINE NOW MOVING INTO BUF AREA TO SUPPORT LOW TOPPED/FAST MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE WITH THE LINE
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG JET MOVING OVERHEAD.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 24050.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 748 SEVERE TSTM NY LO 281535Z - 281900Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
15WSW BUF/BUFFALO NY/ - 35NNE UCA/UTICA NY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /16WSW BUF - 55ENE SYR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
LAT...LON 43507900 44277511 42977511 42207900
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 748 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 748
VALID 281755Z - 281840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..09/28/09
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 748
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC011-029-037-045-049-051-053-055-063-065-067-069-073-075-099-
117-121-123-281840-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAYUGA ERIE GENESEE
JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON
MADISON MONROE NIAGARA
ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO
ORLEANS OSWEGO SENECA
WAYNE WYOMING YATES
$$
LOZ042-043-044-045-062-063-064-065-SLZ022-281840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US/CANADIAN BORDER
ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ABOVE OGDENSBURG NY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 748
VALID 281630Z - 281740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E JHW TO
15 SE BUF TO 15 ENE BUF TO 50 NW ROC.
..MEAD..09/28/09
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 748
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC011-037-045-049-051-053-055-065-067-069-073-075-099-117-121-
123-281740-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAYUGA GENESEE JEFFERSON
LEWIS LIVINGSTON MADISON
MONROE ONEIDA ONONDAGA
ONTARIO ORLEANS OSWEGO
SENECA WAYNE WYOMING
YATES
$$
LOZ043-044-045-063-064-065-SLZ022-281740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US/CANADIAN BORDER
ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ABOVE OGDENSBURG NY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.