SEL8
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 748
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
          LAKE ONTARIO
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1135 AM UNTIL
   300 PM EDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST
   SOUTHWEST OF BUFFALO NEW YORK TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
   UTICA NEW YORK.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG S/WV TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATING
   EWD INTO NY ATTM.  SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE
   LINE NOW MOVING INTO BUF AREA TO SUPPORT LOW TOPPED/FAST MOVING
   THUNDERSTORMS.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE WITH THE LINE
   ENHANCED BY THE STRONG JET MOVING OVERHEAD.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
   A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION
   VECTOR 24050.
   
   
   ...HALES

   SEL8
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 748
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
          LAKE ONTARIO
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1135 AM UNTIL
   300 PM EDT.
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
   WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.0 INCH IN DIAMETER
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST
   SOUTHWEST OF BUFFALO NEW YORK TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
   UTICA NEW YORK.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG S/WV TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATING
   EWD INTO NY ATTM.  SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE
   LINE NOW MOVING INTO BUF AREA TO SUPPORT LOW TOPPED/FAST MOVING
   THUNDERSTORMS.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE WITH THE LINE
   ENHANCED BY THE STRONG JET MOVING OVERHEAD.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
   A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION
   VECTOR 24050.
   
   
   ...HALES

   SEL8
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 748
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
          LAKE ONTARIO
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1135 AM UNTIL
   300 PM EDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST
   SOUTHWEST OF BUFFALO NEW YORK TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
   UTICA NEW YORK.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG S/WV TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATING
   EWD INTO NY ATTM.  SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE
   LINE NOW MOVING INTO BUF AREA TO SUPPORT LOW TOPPED/FAST MOVING
   THUNDERSTORMS.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE WITH THE LINE
   ENHANCED BY THE STRONG JET MOVING OVERHEAD.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
   A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION
   VECTOR 24050.
   
   
   ...HALES

   WOUS64 KWNS 281532
   WOU8
   
   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 748
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 748 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   NYC011-029-037-045-049-051-053-055-063-065-067-069-073-075-099-
   117-121-123-281900-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0748.090928T1535Z-090928T1900Z/
   
   NY 
   .    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   CAYUGA               ERIE                GENESEE             
   JEFFERSON            LEWIS               LIVINGSTON          
   MADISON              MONROE              NIAGARA             
   ONEIDA               ONONDAGA            ONTARIO             
   ORLEANS              OSWEGO              SENECA              
   WAYNE                WYOMING             YATES               
   
   
   LOZ042-043-044-045-062-063-064-065-SLZ022-281900-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0748.090928T1535Z-090928T1900Z/
   
   CW 
   
   .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
   
   NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY 
   
   HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 
   
   SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 
   
   MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 
   
   NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US/CANADIAN BORDER 
   
   HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US/CANADIAN BORDER 
   
   SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US/CANADIAN BORDER 
   
   MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
   TO US/CANADIAN BORDER 
   
   ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ABOVE OGDENSBURG NY 
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...
   
   
   

   SAW8 
   WW 748 SEVERE TSTM NY LO 281535Z - 281900Z
   AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
   15WSW BUF/BUFFALO NY/ - 35NNE UCA/UTICA NY/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /16WSW BUF - 55ENE SYR/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
   
   LAT...LON 43507900 44277511 42977511 42207900
   
   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU8.
   

Watch 748 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 748

VALID 281755Z - 281840Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..MEAD..09/28/09

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 748 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC011-029-037-045-049-051-053-055-063-065-067-069-073-075-099-
117-121-123-281840-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CAYUGA		     ERIE		 GENESEE	     
JEFFERSON	     LEWIS		 LIVINGSTON	     
MADISON 	     MONROE		 NIAGARA	     
ONEIDA		     ONONDAGA		 ONTARIO	     
ORLEANS 	     OSWEGO		 SENECA 	     
WAYNE		     WYOMING		 YATES		     
$$


LOZ042-043-044-045-062-063-064-065-SLZ022-281840-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY 

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 

NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER 

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US/CANADIAN BORDER 

ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ABOVE OGDENSBURG NY 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 748

VALID 281630Z - 281740Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E JHW TO
15 SE BUF TO 15 ENE BUF TO 50 NW ROC.

..MEAD..09/28/09

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 748 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC011-037-045-049-051-053-055-065-067-069-073-075-099-117-121-
123-281740-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CAYUGA		     GENESEE		 JEFFERSON	     
LEWIS		     LIVINGSTON 	 MADISON	     
MONROE		     ONEIDA		 ONONDAGA	     
ONTARIO 	     ORLEANS		 OSWEGO 	     
SENECA		     WAYNE		 WYOMING	     
YATES		     
$$


LOZ043-044-045-063-064-065-SLZ022-281740-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US/CANADIAN BORDER 

ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ABOVE OGDENSBURG NY 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.