Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 749
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 550 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NORFOLK VIRGINIA TO 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF RALEIGH NORTH
CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS THAT FORMED IN THE PAST 90 MIN ALONG COLD FRONT
OVER THE SRN VA/NRN NC PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN STG/SVR FOR THE
NEXT FEW HRS AS THEY CROSS LOW LVL WARMTH/MOISTURE AXIS. WHILE
MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST...FORCING/STG WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE OF GRT LKS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY DMGG WIND...SVR HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 749 SEVERE TSTM NC VA CW 282150Z - 290200Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20NE ORF/NORFOLK VA/ - 65WSW RDU/RALEIGH NC/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /18NE ORF - 34S GSO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
LAT...LON 37097458 35497851 35498118 37097730
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 749 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 749
VALID 290150Z - 290200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ECG TO
15 NW ECG TO 60 ENE ORF.
WW 749 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 290200Z. STORMS ARE MOVING EAST
OF WW AND WILL CONTINUE A DIMINISHING TREND.
..DIAL..09/29/09
ATTN...WFO...RAH...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 749
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC029-139-143-290200-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMDEN PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS
$$
ANZ656-658-290200-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 749
VALID 290040Z - 290140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SE RWI TO
35 E RZZ TO 45 ENE ORF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046
..DIAL..09/29/09
ATTN...WFO...RAH...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 749
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC015-029-041-053-065-073-091-139-143-290140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN
CURRITUCK EDGECOMBE GATES
HERTFORD PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS
$$
VAC550-810-290140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE VIRGINIA BEACH
$$
ANZ633-656-658-290140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CURRITUCK SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 749
VALID 282335Z - 290040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SOP
TO 5 WNW RZZ TO 15 NE AVC TO 30 SE RIC.
..DIAL..09/28/09
ATTN...WFO...RAH...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 749
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC015-029-037-041-053-065-069-073-083-085-091-101-105-127-131-
139-143-183-195-290040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERTIE CAMDEN CHATHAM
CHOWAN CURRITUCK EDGECOMBE
FRANKLIN GATES HALIFAX
HARNETT HERTFORD JOHNSTON
LEE NASH NORTHAMPTON
PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS WAKE
WILSON
$$
VAC025-081-093-175-181-183-550-595-620-650-700-710-740-800-810-
290040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRUNSWICK GREENSVILLE ISLE OF WIGHT
SOUTHAMPTON SURRY SUSSEX
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE EMPORIA FRANKLIN
HAMPTON NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK
PORTSMOUTH SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH
$$
ANZ632-633-656-658-290040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.