Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF HUTCHINSON KANSAS TO 80 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
CLINTON OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STRONG DOWN SLOPE WARMING HAS EFFECTIVELY REMOVED CAP
ALONG DRY LINE. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NW E OF DRY LN
AND APPROACH OF A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND WIND FIELD...STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS MOVE EWD OFF DRY LINE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 750 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 302100Z - 010400Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NNW HUT/HUTCHINSON KS/ - 80WSW CSM/CLINTON OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /31WSW SLN - 33NNW CDS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 38799715 34889944 34880155 38799937
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 750 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 750
VALID 010225Z - 010340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CDS
TO 35 NNW GAG TO 40 WNW AVK TO 30 SE P28.
..GUYER..10/01/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 750
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC003-009-043-045-059-093-129-151-153-010340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BECKHAM DEWEY
ELLIS HARPER MAJOR
ROGER MILLS WOODS WOODWARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 750
VALID 010045Z - 010140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE LBL
TO 55 NNE GAG TO 30 SE P28.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050
..GUYER..10/01/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 750
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC003-007-009-043-045-059-093-129-151-153-010140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
DEWEY ELLIS HARPER
MAJOR ROGER MILLS WOODS
WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-087-129-179-211-295-357-393-483-010140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY
GRAY HEMPHILL LIPSCOMB
OCHILTREE ROBERTS WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 750
VALID 302330Z - 010040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..09/30/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 750
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-025-033-047-053-057-077-083-095-097-113-119-145-151-
155-159-165-185-010040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON CLARK
COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLSWORTH
FORD HARPER HODGEMAN
KINGMAN KIOWA MCPHERSON
MEADE PAWNEE PRATT
RENO RICE RUSH
STAFFORD
$$
OKC003-007-009-043-045-059-093-129-151-153-010040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
DEWEY ELLIS HARPER
MAJOR ROGER MILLS WOODS
WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-087-129-179-211-295-357-393-483-010040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY
GRAY HEMPHILL LIPSCOMB
OCHILTREE ROBERTS WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.