Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
LARGE PART OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF PARIS TEXAS TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 751...
DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO NRN TX ENCOUNTERING AN AIR
MASS THAT HAS BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE. WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES SEWD ACROSS THE
WATCH.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 752 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 012050Z - 020400Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30NNW PRX/PARIS TX/ - 20S TPL/TEMPLE TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /50S MLC - 37NNE AUS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
LAT...LON 34029416 30859598 30859884 34029712
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 752 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 752
VALID 020330Z - 020400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE JCT
TO 25 SSE TYR.
WW 752 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 020400Z.
..GARNER..10/02/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 752
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-027-073-145-161-289-293-331-395-020400-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL CHEROKEE
FALLS FREESTONE LEON
LIMESTONE MILAM ROBERTSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 752
VALID 020240Z - 020340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE BWD
TO 25 NNW GGG.
..GARNER..10/02/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 752
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-027-073-099-145-161-213-281-289-293-309-331-349-395-423-
020340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL CHEROKEE
CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE
HENDERSON LAMPASAS LEON
LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM
NAVARRO ROBERTSON SMITH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 752
VALID 020135Z - 020240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE BWD TO
35 SSE FTW TO 20 SE DEQ.
..GARNER..10/02/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 752
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-027-035-063-073-099-139-145-159-161-213-217-281-289-293-
309-331-349-395-423-449-459-467-499-020240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
CAMP CHEROKEE CORYELL
ELLIS FALLS FRANKLIN
FREESTONE HENDERSON HILL
LAMPASAS LEON LIMESTONE
MCLENNAN MILAM NAVARRO
ROBERTSON SMITH TITUS
UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 752
VALID 020025Z - 020140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW SEP
TO 30 ENE DAL TO 20 W DEQ.
..GARNER..10/02/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 752
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC089-020140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC001-027-035-063-073-099-119-139-145-159-161-193-213-217-223-
231-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-349-379-387-395-397-423-
449-459-467-499-020140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
CAMP CHEROKEE CORYELL
DELTA ELLIS FALLS
FRANKLIN FREESTONE HAMILTON
HENDERSON HILL HOPKINS
HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN
LAMAR LAMPASAS LEON
LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM
MILLS NAVARRO RAINS
RED RIVER ROBERTSON ROCKWALL
SMITH TITUS UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 752
VALID 012325Z - 020040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE MWL TO
30 N PRX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055
..GARNER..10/01/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 752
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC089-020040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC001-027-035-063-073-085-099-113-119-121-139-143-145-147-159-
161-193-213-217-221-223-231-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-
349-367-379-387-395-397-423-425-439-449-459-467-499-020040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
CAMP CHEROKEE COLLIN
CORYELL DALLAS DELTA
DENTON ELLIS ERATH
FALLS FANNIN FRANKLIN
FREESTONE HAMILTON HENDERSON
HILL HOOD HOPKINS
HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN
LAMAR LAMPASAS LEON
LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM
MILLS NAVARRO PARKER
RAINS RED RIVER ROBERTSON
ROCKWALL SMITH SOMERVELL
TARRANT TITUS UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 752
VALID 012230Z - 012340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..10/01/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 752
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC089-012340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC001-027-035-063-073-085-097-099-113-119-121-139-143-145-147-
159-161-181-193-213-217-221-223-231-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-
331-333-349-367-379-387-395-397-423-425-439-449-459-467-497-499-
012340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
CAMP CHEROKEE COLLIN
COOKE CORYELL DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
ERATH FALLS FANNIN
FRANKLIN FREESTONE GRAYSON
HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL
HOOD HOPKINS HUNT
JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR
LAMPASAS LEON LIMESTONE
MCLENNAN MILAM MILLS
NAVARRO PARKER RAINS
RED RIVER ROBERTSON ROCKWALL
SMITH SOMERVELL TARRANT
TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
WISE WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.