Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF DYERSBURG TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 749...WW 750...WW 751...
DISCUSSION...EXPANDING CLUSTERS OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO POSE PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND
ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW REINFORCED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED NW-SE ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY BE ENHANCED AS WEAK MCS TRACKS
ACROSS NRN MO WHILE NARROW BELT OF 30-40KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY
AID STORM PERSISTENCE/INTENSITY. BULK OF ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
EXHIBITING MULTICELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS WHERE STORM MERGERS IN
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR SHOULD SUPPORT DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. WITH
TIME...THESE MERGERS MAY ALLOW A LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS TO PERSIST
AND SPREAD ESEWD INTO WRN KY/TN WITH WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINAL HAIL
THREATS CONTINUING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 29025.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 752 SEVERE TSTM AR IL KY MO TN 252340Z - 260700Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10NNE JEF/JEFFERSON CITY MO/ - 25SSW DYR/DYERSBURG TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /8SE COU - 25SSW DYR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.
LAT...LON 38729041 35658797 35659116 38729375
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 752 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 752
VALID 260640Z - 260700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE PAH
TO 25 NNW ARG TO 40 WNW POF TO 20 WNW MDH.
WW 752 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 07Z.
..GUYER..07/26/08
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...PAH...SGF...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 752
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-153-260700-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER PULASKI
$$
KYC007-039-075-083-105-260700-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-260700-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT
STODDARD WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 752
VALID 260415Z - 260540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S PAH TO
20 S UNO TO 40 SSW TBN TO 15 SSW FAM TO 25 S BLV.
..GOSS..07/26/08
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...PAH...SGF...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 752
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-153-260540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER PULASKI
$$
KYC007-039-075-083-105-260540-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-091-123-133-143-149-157-179-181-201-203-207-
215-223-260540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER HOWELL MADISON
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID OREGON
PERRY REYNOLDS RIPLEY
SCOTT SHANNON STODDARD
TEXAS WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 752
VALID 260140Z - 260240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..07/26/08
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...PAH...SGF...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 752
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-031-049-055-065-075-093-121-135-260240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD FULTON
GREENE IZARD LAWRENCE
MISSISSIPPI RANDOLPH SHARP
$$
ILC003-153-260240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER PULASKI
$$
KYC007-039-075-083-105-260240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN
$$
MOC015-017-019-023-027-029-031-035-051-055-059-065-069-071-073-
085-091-093-099-105-123-125-131-133-135-139-141-143-149-151-155-
157-161-169-179-181-186-187-201-203-207-215-219-221-223-229-
260240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BOLLINGER BOONE
BUTLER CALLAWAY CAMDEN
CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER COLE
CRAWFORD DALLAS DENT
DUNKLIN FRANKLIN GASCONADE
HICKORY HOWELL IRON
JEFFERSON LACLEDE MADISON
MARIES MILLER MISSISSIPPI
MONITEAU MONTGOMERY MORGAN
NEW MADRID OREGON OSAGE
PEMISCOT PERRY PHELPS
PULASKI REYNOLDS RIPLEY
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SCOTT
SHANNON STODDARD TEXAS
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
WRIGHT
$$
TNC017-033-045-053-079-095-097-131-183-260240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CROCKETT DYER
GIBSON HENRY LAKE
LAUDERDALE OBION WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 752
VALID 260040Z - 260140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..07/26/08
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...PAH...SGF...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 752
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-031-049-055-065-075-093-121-135-260140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD FULTON
GREENE IZARD LAWRENCE
MISSISSIPPI RANDOLPH SHARP
$$
ILC003-153-260140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER PULASKI
$$
KYC007-039-075-083-105-260140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN
$$
MOC015-017-019-023-027-029-031-035-051-055-059-065-069-071-073-
085-091-093-099-105-123-125-131-133-135-139-141-143-149-151-155-
157-161-169-179-181-186-187-201-203-207-215-219-221-223-229-
260140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BOLLINGER BOONE
BUTLER CALLAWAY CAMDEN
CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER COLE
CRAWFORD DALLAS DENT
DUNKLIN FRANKLIN GASCONADE
HICKORY HOWELL IRON
JEFFERSON LACLEDE MADISON
MARIES MILLER MISSISSIPPI
MONITEAU MONTGOMERY MORGAN
NEW MADRID OREGON OSAGE
PEMISCOT PERRY PHELPS
PULASKI REYNOLDS RIPLEY
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SCOTT
SHANNON STODDARD TEXAS
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
WRIGHT
$$
TNC017-033-045-053-079-095-097-131-183-260140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CROCKETT DYER
GIBSON HENRY LAKE
LAUDERDALE OBION WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.