Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF RUSSELL KANSAS TO 25 MILES NORTH OF TOPEKA KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER
TO THE NORTH OF HLC...WHILE ELEVATED STORMS ARE SPREADING EWD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KS. THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SURFACE-BASED AS THEY MOVE EWD/ESEWD INTO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING INTO EAST CENTRAL KS WHERE
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND MLCAPE IS 2500-3500
J/KG. THIS AREA IS ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS IS
RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IF STORMS CAN GROW UPSCALE...A BOWING
MCS IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING THREAT OF MORE CONTINUOUS
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...WEISS
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF RUSSELL KANSAS TO 25 MILES NORTH OF TOPEKA KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER
TO THE NORTH OF HLC...WHILE ELEVATED STORMS ARE SPREADING EWD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KS. THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SURFACE-BASED AS THEY MOVE EWD/ESEWD INTO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING INTO EAST CENTRAL KS WHERE
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND MLCAPE IS 2500-3500
J/KG. THIS AREA IS ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS IS
RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IF STORMS CAN GROW UPSCALE...A BOWING
MCS IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING THREAT OF MORE CONTINUOUS
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 753 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 261915Z - 270300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
65NNW RSL/RUSSELL KS/ - 25N TOP/TOPEKA KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /52ENE HLC - 49W MKC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.
LAT...LON 40599929 40299562 38569562 38869929
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 753 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 753
VALID 270135Z - 270240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW EMP TO
10 SSE TOP.
..GOSS..07/27/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 753
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-017-031-045-059-111-115-139-270240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON CHASE COFFEY
DOUGLAS FRANKLIN LYON
MARION OSAGE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 753
VALID 270040Z - 270140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SLN
TO 30 NE MHK TO 30 NW FNB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1926.
..PETERS..07/27/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 753
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-013-017-031-045-059-061-085-087-111-115-127-131-139-149-
177-197-270140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BROWN CHASE
COFFEY DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON
LYON MARION MORRIS
NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE
SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE
$$
NEC147-270140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RICHARDSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 753
VALID 262350Z - 270040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE RSL
TO 20 NW SLN TO 35 WSW BIE TO 10 NNW BIE.
..PETERS..07/26/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 753
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-009-013-017-027-029-031-041-045-053-059-061-085-087-111-
113-115-117-127-131-139-143-149-159-161-169-177-197-201-
270040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BARTON BROWN
CHASE CLAY CLOUD
COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS
ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GEARY
JACKSON JEFFERSON LYON
MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL
MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RICE
RILEY SALINE SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
$$
NEC067-095-133-147-270040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GAGE JEFFERSON PAWNEE
RICHARDSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 753
VALID 262240Z - 262340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W RSL TO
30 WSW CNK TO 35 NNW CNK TO 10 NW BIE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924.
..PETERS..07/26/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 753
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-009-013-017-027-029-031-041-045-053-059-061-085-087-105-
111-113-115-117-127-131-139-143-149-157-159-161-167-169-177-197-
201-262340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BARTON BROWN
CHASE CLAY CLOUD
COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS
ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GEARY
JACKSON JEFFERSON LINCOLN
LYON MCPHERSON MARION
MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA
OSAGE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE
REPUBLIC RICE RILEY
RUSSELL SALINE SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
$$
NEC067-095-133-147-262340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GAGE JEFFERSON PAWNEE
RICHARDSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 753
VALID 262145Z - 262240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE HLC
TO 40 S HSI TO 20 ESE HSI.
..PETERS..07/26/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 753
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-013-027-029-031-041-045-053-059-061-085-087-089-105-111-
117-123-127-131-139-141-143-149-157-161-163-167-169-177-183-197-
201-262240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BROWN CLAY
CLOUD COFFEY DICKINSON
DOUGLAS ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN
GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON
JEWELL LINCOLN LYON
MARSHALL MITCHELL MORRIS
NEMAHA OSAGE OSBORNE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY ROOKS RUSSELL
SALINE SHAWNEE SMITH
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
$$
NEC067-095-129-133-147-169-262240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GAGE JEFFERSON NUCKOLLS
PAWNEE RICHARDSON THAYER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 753
VALID 262035Z - 262140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..07/26/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 753
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-013-027-029-031-041-045-053-059-061-085-087-089-105-111-
117-123-127-131-139-141-143-147-149-157-161-163-167-169-177-183-
197-201-262140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BROWN CLAY
CLOUD COFFEY DICKINSON
DOUGLAS ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN
GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON
JEWELL LINCOLN LYON
MARSHALL MITCHELL MORRIS
NEMAHA OSAGE OSBORNE
OTTAWA PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE
REPUBLIC RILEY ROOKS
RUSSELL SALINE SHAWNEE
SMITH WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
$$
NEC061-067-083-095-129-133-147-169-181-262140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN GAGE HARLAN
JEFFERSON NUCKOLLS PAWNEE
RICHARDSON THAYER WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.