SEL3
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 753
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   630 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
          NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
          NORTHEAST TEXAS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 630 PM
   UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
   NORTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF LONGVIEW
   TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
   WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 751...WW 752...
   
   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/SEWD THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS SW
   AR/NE TX/NW LA...WHILE OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS FORM IN THE WARM
   SECTOR ACROSS SW AR IN A ZONE OF WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT.  THE
   COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
   VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
   SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. 
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE
   WARM FRONT IN AR...THOUGH GRADUAL WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
   INSTABILITY TONIGHT SUGGESTS THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
   LIMITED.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 29030.
   
   
   ...THOMPSON

   SEL3
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 753
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   630 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
          NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
          NORTHEAST TEXAS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 630 PM
   UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
   ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
   WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
   ISOLATED TORNADOES
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
   NORTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF LONGVIEW
   TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
   WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 751...WW 752...
   
   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/SEWD THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS SW
   AR/NE TX/NW LA...WHILE OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS FORM IN THE WARM
   SECTOR ACROSS SW AR IN A ZONE OF WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT.  THE
   COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
   VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
   SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. 
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE
   WARM FRONT IN AR...THOUGH GRADUAL WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
   INSTABILITY TONIGHT SUGGESTS THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
   LIMITED.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 29030.
   
   
   ...THOMPSON

   SEL3
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 753
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   630 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
          NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
          NORTHEAST TEXAS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 630 PM
   UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
   NORTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF LONGVIEW
   TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
   WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 751...WW 752...
   
   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/SEWD THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS SW
   AR/NE TX/NW LA...WHILE OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS FORM IN THE WARM
   SECTOR ACROSS SW AR IN A ZONE OF WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT.  THE
   COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
   VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
   SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. 
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE
   WARM FRONT IN AR...THOUGH GRADUAL WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
   INSTABILITY TONIGHT SUGGESTS THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
   LIMITED.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 29030.
   
   
   ...THOMPSON

   WOUS64 KWNS 012326
   WOU3
   
   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 753
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   630 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 753 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   ARC011-013-019-025-027-039-051-053-057-059-061-069-073-081-091-
   097-099-103-105-109-113-119-125-127-133-139-149-020700-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0753.091001T2330Z-091002T0700Z/
   
   AR 
   .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   BRADLEY              CALHOUN             CLARK               
   CLEVELAND            COLUMBIA            DALLAS              
   GARLAND              GRANT               HEMPSTEAD           
   HOT SPRING           HOWARD              JEFFERSON           
   LAFAYETTE            LITTLE RIVER        MILLER              
   MONTGOMERY           NEVADA              OUACHITA            
   PERRY                PIKE                POLK                
   PULASKI              SALINE              SCOTT               
   SEVIER               UNION               YELL                
   
   
   LAC013-015-017-027-031-061-081-111-119-020700-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0753.091001T2330Z-091002T0700Z/
   
   LA 
   .    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
   
   BIENVILLE            BOSSIER             CADDO               
   CLAIBORNE            DE SOTO             LINCOLN             
   RED RIVER            UNION               WEBSTER             
   
   
   TXC037-067-183-203-315-343-347-365-401-419-020700-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0753.091001T2330Z-091002T0700Z/
   
   TX 
   .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   BOWIE                CASS                GREGG               
   HARRISON             MARION              MORRIS              
   NACOGDOCHES          PANOLA              RUSK                
   SHELBY               
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
   
   
   

   SAW3 
   WW 753 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 012330Z - 020700Z
   AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
   40NNE HOT/HOT SPRINGS AR/ - 60S GGG/LONGVIEW TX/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /37WNW LIT - 21N LFK/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29030.
   
   LAT...LON 35009176 31519369 31519573 35009388
   
   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU3.
   

Watch 753 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 753

VALID 020455Z - 020540Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW LFK
TO 40 E SHV.

..GUYER..10/02/09

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 753 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

LAC013-031-061-081-111-020540-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

BIENVILLE	     DE SOTO		 LINCOLN	     
RED RIVER	     UNION		 
$$


TXC347-419-020540-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

NACOGDOCHES	     SHELBY		 
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 753

VALID 020340Z - 020440Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW TYR
TO 35 SW ELD TO 25 NNE ELD.

..GUYER..10/02/09

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 753 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC011-025-069-139-020440-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADLEY 	     CLEVELAND		 JEFFERSON	     
UNION		     
$$


LAC013-015-017-027-031-061-081-111-119-020440-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

BIENVILLE	     BOSSIER		 CADDO		     
CLAIBORNE	     DE SOTO		 LINCOLN	     
RED RIVER	     UNION		 WEBSTER	     
$$


TXC347-365-401-419-020440-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

NACOGDOCHES	     PANOLA		 RUSK		     
SHELBY		     
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 753

VALID 020150Z - 020240Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W TXK TO
40 NE TXK TO 20 SE RUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2056

..GUYER..10/02/09

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 753 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC011-013-019-025-027-039-051-053-057-059-069-073-091-099-103-
105-119-125-139-020240-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADLEY 	     CALHOUN		 CLARK		     
CLEVELAND	     COLUMBIA		 DALLAS 	     
GARLAND 	     GRANT		 HEMPSTEAD	     
HOT SPRING	     JEFFERSON		 LAFAYETTE	     
MILLER		     NEVADA		 OUACHITA	     
PERRY		     PULASKI		 SALINE 	     
UNION		     
$$


LAC013-015-017-027-031-061-081-111-119-020240-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

BIENVILLE	     BOSSIER		 CADDO		     
CLAIBORNE	     DE SOTO		 LINCOLN	     
RED RIVER	     UNION		 WEBSTER	     
$$


TXC037-067-183-203-315-343-347-365-401-419-020240-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOWIE		     CASS		 GREGG		     
HARRISON	     MARION		 MORRIS 	     
NACOGDOCHES	     PANOLA		 RUSK		     
SHELBY		     
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.