Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
805 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 805 PM
UNTIL 300 AM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ALLIANCE
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 753...WW 754...
DISCUSSION...AREAS OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING EAST INTO
ZONE OF MUCH STRONGER INSTABILITY AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED ASCENT
AND MASS INFLOW ON STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. ACTIVITY APPEARS
TO BE ENCOUNTERING MORE FAVORABLE REGIME BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND EXPECT ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS TO CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT
OF HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WHILE SPREADING SEWD INTO LLJ...AND
ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28035.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 755 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 270205Z - 270900Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NW MBG/MOBRIDGE SD/ - 30SSW AIA/ALLIANCE NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /52SSW BIS - 25SE BFF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
LAT...LON 45939945 41630156 41630447 45930258
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 755 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 755
VALID 270835Z - 270940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW PIR
TO 40 SE 2WX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1929
..GUYER..07/27/08
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 755
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC105-137-270940-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PERKINS ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 755
VALID 270745Z - 270840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW PIR
TO 45 SE 2WX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1929
..GUYER..07/27/08
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 755
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC017-021-031-041-059-063-065-069-075-085-105-107-117-119-129-
137-270840-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUFFALO CAMPBELL CORSON
DEWEY HAND HARDING
HUGHES HYDE JONES
LYMAN PERKINS POTTER
STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH
ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 755
VALID 270640Z - 270740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE AIA
TO 25 ENE CDR TO 40 WNW CDR.
..GUYER..07/27/08
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 755
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-031-069-075-161-270740-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHERRY GARDEN
GRANT SHERIDAN
$$
SDC007-017-019-021-031-033-041-047-055-059-063-065-069-071-075-
085-093-095-103-105-107-113-117-119-121-123-129-137-270740-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUFFALO BUTTE
CAMPBELL CORSON CUSTER
DEWEY FALL RIVER HAAKON
HAND HARDING HUGHES
HYDE JACKSON JONES
LYMAN MEADE MELLETTE
PENNINGTON PERKINS POTTER
SHANNON STANLEY SULLY
TODD TRIPP WALWORTH
ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 755
VALID 270455Z - 270540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..07/27/08
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 755
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-013-031-045-069-075-123-157-161-165-270540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BOX BUTTE CHERRY
DAWES GARDEN GRANT
MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN
SIOUX
$$
SDC007-021-031-033-041-047-055-065-071-075-085-093-095-103-105-
107-113-117-119-121-129-137-270540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CAMPBELL CORSON
CUSTER DEWEY FALL RIVER
HAAKON HUGHES JACKSON
JONES LYMAN MEADE
MELLETTE PENNINGTON PERKINS
POTTER SHANNON STANLEY
SULLY TODD WALWORTH
ZIEBACH
$$
WYC015-027-270540-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN NIOBRARA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 755
VALID 270335Z - 270440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..07/27/08
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 755
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-013-031-045-069-075-123-157-161-165-270440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BOX BUTTE CHERRY
DAWES GARDEN GRANT
MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN
SIOUX
$$
SDC007-021-031-033-041-047-055-065-071-075-085-093-095-103-105-
107-113-117-119-121-129-137-270440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CAMPBELL CORSON
CUSTER DEWEY FALL RIVER
HAAKON HUGHES JACKSON
JONES LYMAN MEADE
MELLETTE PENNINGTON PERKINS
POTTER SHANNON STANLEY
SULLY TODD WALWORTH
ZIEBACH
$$
WYC015-027-270440-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN NIOBRARA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 755
VALID 270245Z - 270340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..07/27/08
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 755
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-013-031-045-069-075-123-157-161-165-270340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BOX BUTTE CHERRY
DAWES GARDEN GRANT
MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN
SIOUX
$$
SDC007-021-031-033-041-047-055-065-071-075-085-093-095-103-105-
107-113-117-119-121-129-137-270340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CAMPBELL CORSON
CUSTER DEWEY FALL RIVER
HAAKON HUGHES JACKSON
JONES LYMAN MEADE
MELLETTE PENNINGTON PERKINS
POTTER SHANNON STANLEY
SULLY TODD WALWORTH
ZIEBACH
$$
WYC015-027-270340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN NIOBRARA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.