SEL9
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 769
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   710 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
          NORTH AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
          WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 710 AM UNTIL
   100 PM CDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF
   MONROE LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF NATCHEZ
   MISSISSIPPI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN AR WILL LIKELY
   PERSIST AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS N/NE LA AND W CENTRAL MS THROUGH ABOUT
   MIDDAY.  THE CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN INFLUX OF LOW-MID
   70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS...MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...AND
   INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN ADVANCE OF
   A WEAK WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN EXTREME NE TX.  DAMAGING WINDS
   SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
   A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION
   VECTOR 31025.
   
   
   ...THOMPSON

   SEL9
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 769
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   710 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
          NORTH AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
          WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 710 AM UNTIL
   100 PM CDT.
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF
   MONROE LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF NATCHEZ
   MISSISSIPPI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN AR WILL LIKELY
   PERSIST AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS N/NE LA AND W CENTRAL MS THROUGH ABOUT
   MIDDAY.  THE CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN INFLUX OF LOW-MID
   70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS...MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...AND
   INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN ADVANCE OF
   A WEAK WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN EXTREME NE TX.  DAMAGING WINDS
   SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
   A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION
   VECTOR 31025.
   
   
   ...THOMPSON

   SEL9
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 769
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   710 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
          NORTH AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
          WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 710 AM UNTIL
   100 PM CDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF
   MONROE LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF NATCHEZ
   MISSISSIPPI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN AR WILL LIKELY
   PERSIST AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS N/NE LA AND W CENTRAL MS THROUGH ABOUT
   MIDDAY.  THE CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN INFLUX OF LOW-MID
   70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS...MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...AND
   INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN ADVANCE OF
   A WEAK WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN EXTREME NE TX.  DAMAGING WINDS
   SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
   A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION
   VECTOR 31025.
   
   
   ...THOMPSON

   WOUS64 KWNS 151205
   WOU9
   
   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 769
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   710 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   ARC003-027-139-151800-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0769.091015T1210Z-091015T1800Z/
   
   AR 
   .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   ASHLEY               COLUMBIA            UNION               
   
   
   LAC013-021-025-027-029-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073-
   081-083-107-111-119-123-127-151800-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0769.091015T1210Z-091015T1800Z/
   
   LA 
   .    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
   
   BIENVILLE            CALDWELL            CATAHOULA           
   CLAIBORNE            CONCORDIA           EAST CARROLL        
   FRANKLIN             GRANT               JACKSON             
   LA SALLE             LINCOLN             MADISON             
   MOREHOUSE            NATCHITOCHES        OUACHITA            
   RED RIVER            RICHLAND            TENSAS              
   UNION                WEBSTER             WEST CARROLL        
   WINN                 
   
   
   MSC001-021-037-055-063-149-151800-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0769.091015T1210Z-091015T1800Z/
   
   MS 
   .    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   ADAMS                CLAIBORNE           FRANKLIN            
   ISSAQUENA            JEFFERSON           WARREN              
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
   
   
   

   SAW9 
   WW 769 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 151210Z - 151800Z
   AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
   60NW MLU/MONROE LA/ - 35WSW HEZ/NATCHEZ MS/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /8S ELD - 35ENE AEX/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31025.
   
   LAT...LON 33139155 31429066 31429304 33139397
   
   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU9.
   

Watch 769 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 769

VALID 151745Z - 151800Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW IER TO
15 S MLU TO 20 SSE MLU TO 45 ENE MLU.

WW 769 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 151800Z.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2112.

..PETERS..10/15/09

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 769 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

LAC021-025-029-041-043-059-065-069-107-127-151800-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

CALDWELL	     CATAHOULA		 CONCORDIA	     
FRANKLIN	     GRANT		 LA SALLE	     
MADISON 	     NATCHITOCHES	 TENSAS 	     
WINN		     
$$


MSC001-021-037-063-149-151800-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS		     CLAIBORNE		 FRANKLIN	     
JEFFERSON	     WARREN		 
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 769

VALID 151640Z - 151740Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW IER TO
30 SW MLU TO 10 S MLU TO 35 SSW LLQ.

..PETERS..10/15/09

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 769 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

LAC021-025-029-035-041-043-059-065-067-069-083-107-123-127-
151740-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

CALDWELL	     CATAHOULA		 CONCORDIA	     
EAST CARROLL	     FRANKLIN		 GRANT		     
LA SALLE	     MADISON		 MOREHOUSE	     
NATCHITOCHES	     RICHLAND		 TENSAS 	     
WEST CARROLL	     WINN		 
$$


MSC001-021-037-055-063-149-151740-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS		     CLAIBORNE		 FRANKLIN	     
ISSAQUENA	     JEFFERSON		 WARREN 	     
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 769

VALID 151540Z - 151640Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE SHV
TO 45 E SHV TO 35 W MLU TO 30 SSE ELD TO 30 NNW MLU TO 35 SSW LLQ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2111.

..PETERS..10/15/09

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 769 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

LAC013-021-025-029-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073-081-
083-107-111-123-127-151640-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

BIENVILLE	     CALDWELL		 CATAHOULA	     
CONCORDIA	     EAST CARROLL	 FRANKLIN	     
GRANT		     JACKSON		 LA SALLE	     
LINCOLN 	     MADISON		 MOREHOUSE	     
NATCHITOCHES	     OUACHITA		 RED RIVER	     
RICHLAND	     TENSAS		 UNION		     
WEST CARROLL	     WINN		 
$$


MSC001-021-037-055-063-149-151640-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS		     CLAIBORNE		 FRANKLIN	     
ISSAQUENA	     JEFFERSON		 WARREN 	     
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 769

VALID 151440Z - 151540Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE SHV
TO 30 SW ELD TO 30 SSE ELD TO 30 NNW MLU TO 35 SSW LLQ.

..PETERS..10/15/09

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 769 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC003-151540-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ASHLEY		     
$$


LAC013-021-025-027-029-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073-
081-083-107-111-119-123-127-151540-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

BIENVILLE	     CALDWELL		 CATAHOULA	     
CLAIBORNE	     CONCORDIA		 EAST CARROLL	     
FRANKLIN	     GRANT		 JACKSON	     
LA SALLE	     LINCOLN		 MADISON	     
MOREHOUSE	     NATCHITOCHES	 OUACHITA	     
RED RIVER	     RICHLAND		 TENSAS 	     
UNION		     WEBSTER		 WEST CARROLL	     
WINN		     
$$


MSC001-021-037-055-063-149-151540-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS		     CLAIBORNE		 FRANKLIN	     
ISSAQUENA	     JEFFERSON		 WARREN 	     
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 769

VALID 151335Z - 151440Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..PETERS..10/15/09

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 769 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC003-027-139-151440-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ASHLEY		     COLUMBIA		 UNION		     
$$


LAC013-021-025-027-029-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073-
081-083-107-111-119-123-127-151440-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

BIENVILLE	     CALDWELL		 CATAHOULA	     
CLAIBORNE	     CONCORDIA		 EAST CARROLL	     
FRANKLIN	     GRANT		 JACKSON	     
LA SALLE	     LINCOLN		 MADISON	     
MOREHOUSE	     NATCHITOCHES	 OUACHITA	     
RED RIVER	     RICHLAND		 TENSAS 	     
UNION		     WEBSTER		 WEST CARROLL	     
WINN		     
$$


MSC001-021-037-055-063-149-151440-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS		     CLAIBORNE		 FRANKLIN	     
ISSAQUENA	     JEFFERSON		 WARREN 	     
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.