Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 780
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
645 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 645 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.
HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
DURANT OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 778...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 779. WATCH NUMBER
778 779 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 645 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...QLCS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF OK THIS MORNING. WHILE VERTICAL
SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG...COMBINATION OF PACIFIC FRONT AND
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD SERVE TO MAINTAIN AN OUTFLOW-DOMINANT...
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21040.
...MEAD/IMY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 780 SEVERE TSTM OK 291145Z - 291700Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NNE BVO/BARTLESVILLE OK/ - 10SSE DUA/DURANT OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /36WSW OSW - 48ESE ADM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21040.
REPLACES WW 778..OK TX
REPLACES WW 779..OK TX
LAT...LON 36979483 33819529 33819737 36979700
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 780 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 780
VALID 291545Z - 291640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W GYI TO
25 SW TUL TO 20 NNE BVO.
..GOSS..10/29/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 780
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-021-023-029-035-037-061-063-069-077-091-095-097-101-
105-107-111-121-123-127-131-143-145-147-291640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CHEROKEE
CHOCTAW COAL CRAIG
CREEK HASKELL HUGHES
JOHNSTON LATIMER MCINTOSH
MARSHALL MAYES MUSKOGEE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA
ROGERS TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 780
VALID 291450Z - 291540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ADM
TO 20 SE CQB TO 15 N BVO.
..GOSS..10/29/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 780
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-021-023-029-035-037-061-063-069-077-085-091-095-
097-099-101-105-107-111-121-123-127-131-133-143-145-147-
291540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL
CRAIG CREEK HASKELL
HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER
LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL
MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA
ROGERS SEMINOLE TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 780
VALID 291250Z - 291340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..10/29/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 780
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-021-023-029-035-037-049-061-063-069-077-081-085-
091-095-097-099-101-105-107-111-113-117-119-121-123-125-127-131-
133-143-145-147-291340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL
CRAIG CREEK GARVIN
HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON
LATIMER LINCOLN LOVE
MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES
MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOWATA
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OSAGE
PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG
PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA
ROGERS SEMINOLE TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.