Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 803
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
605 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO
FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 605 PM UNTIL
100 AM MDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SIDNEY NEBRASKA TO 10 MILES EAST OF BURWELL NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 801...WW 802...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING/SPREADING ENE FROM NE CO/WRN NEB
PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING...LIKELY MERGING INTO A QLCS. FORWARD PROPAGATION TOWARD
THE ENE WILL BE SUPPORTED BY ENELY LOW-LVL FLOW BENEATH WSW MID LVL
WINDS...AND BY ASSOCIATED UPR DISTURBANCE NOW IN WY /REF MCD 2018/.
MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE DMGG WINDS FROM EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE BOWS
ALONG AND N OF STALLING SFC FRONT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 803 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 040005Z - 040700Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25SW SNY/SIDNEY NE/ - 10E BUB/BURWELL NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM N/S /22SW SNY - 36NW OBH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
LAT...LON 42060331 43009895 40549895 39610331
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 803 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 803
VALID 040655Z - 040700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N EAR TO
25 E LBF TO 30 WNW BBW TO 20 E BUB.
WW 803 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 040700Z. ISOLATED STORMS OVER
CNTRL NEB MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...OVERALL REMAINING THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO
WARRANT ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE.
..DIAL..08/04/08
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 803
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC041-040700-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 803
VALID 040540Z - 040640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE MCK
TO 20 SSW LBF TO 20 NW LBF TO 25 S ANW TO 20 ENE ONL.
..DIAL..08/04/08
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 803
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC009-041-047-063-071-073-089-111-113-115-149-183-040640-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE CUSTER DAWSON
FRONTIER GARFIELD GOSPER
HOLT LINCOLN LOGAN
LOUP ROCK WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 803
VALID 040440Z - 040540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE MCK
TO 25 ESE IML TO 30 WSW LBF TO 35 ESE MHN TO 40 NE ANW.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2022.
..EDWARDS..08/04/08
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 803
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC009-015-017-041-047-063-071-073-085-089-103-111-113-115-149-
183-040540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BOYD BROWN
CUSTER DAWSON FRONTIER
GARFIELD GOSPER HAYES
HOLT KEYA PAHA LINCOLN
LOGAN LOUP ROCK
WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 803
VALID 040335Z - 040440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE AKO
TO 40 W IML TO 40 NW LBF TO 10 SSE VTN.
..EDWARDS..08/04/08
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 803
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC095-125-040440-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PHILLIPS YUMA
$$
KSC023-040440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE
$$
NEC009-015-017-029-031-041-047-057-063-071-073-085-087-089-091-
101-103-111-113-115-117-135-145-149-171-183-040440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BOYD BROWN
CHASE CHERRY CUSTER
DAWSON DUNDY FRONTIER
GARFIELD GOSPER HAYES
HITCHCOCK HOLT HOOKER
KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN
LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON
PERKINS RED WILLOW ROCK
THOMAS WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 803
VALID 040240Z - 040340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW AKO
TO 20 E SNY TO 30 SE AIA TO 35 NE AIA.
..EDWARDS..08/04/08
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 803
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-095-115-121-125-040340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-040340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE
$$
NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-041-047-049-057-063-069-071-073-075-
085-087-089-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-135-145-149-161-171-183-
040340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD
BROWN CHASE CHERRY
CUSTER DAWSON DEUEL
DUNDY FRONTIER GARDEN
GARFIELD GOSPER GRANT
HAYES HITCHCOCK HOLT
HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA
LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON PERKINS RED WILLOW
ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS
WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 803
VALID 040145Z - 040240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N AKO TO
25 NNE SNY TO 15 NNE AIA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2018.
..EDWARDS..08/04/08
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 803
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-095-115-121-125-040240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-040240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE
$$
NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-033-041-047-049-057-063-069-071-073-
075-085-087-089-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-123-135-145-149-161-
171-183-040240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD
BROWN CHASE CHERRY
CHEYENNE CUSTER DAWSON
DEUEL DUNDY FRONTIER
GARDEN GARFIELD GOSPER
GRANT HAYES HITCHCOCK
HOLT HOOKER KEITH
KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN
LOUP MCPHERSON MORRILL
PERKINS RED WILLOW ROCK
SHERIDAN THOMAS WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.