Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 811
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 500 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF MILES CITY MONTANA TO 80 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
RAPID CITY SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 810...
DISCUSSION...COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL MT
AND UPSLOPE FLOW HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THUNDERSTORMS TO RECENTLY
DEVELOP OVER SERN MT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK SEWD ALONG
A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM SERN MT TO NEAR RAPID CITY...SD.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 50 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE LIKELY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32020.
...IMY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 811 SEVERE TSTM MT SD WY 052300Z - 060500Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10ENE MLS/MILES CITY MT/ - 80SSW RAP/RAPID CITY SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /13ENE MLS - 66N BFF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32020.
LAT...LON 46470411 42970216 42970513 46470726
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 811 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 811
VALID 060440Z - 060500Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE SHR
TO 45 WNW 4BQ TO 15 NW 4BQ TO 35 SSE 4BQ TO 10 NNW GCC TO 35 WNW
GCC.
REMAINDER WW 811 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 060500Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039.
..EDWARDS..08/06/08
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 811
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC075-087-060500-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD
$$
SDC063-060500-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDING
$$
WYC005-060500-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 811
VALID 060340Z - 060440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039
..JEWELL..08/06/08
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 811
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-017-025-075-087-060440-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER CUSTER FALLON
POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD
$$
SDC019-033-047-063-081-093-103-113-060440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER
HARDING LAWRENCE MEADE
PENNINGTON SHANNON
$$
WYC005-011-045-060440-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 811
VALID 060245Z - 060340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039
..JEWELL..08/06/08
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 811
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-017-025-075-087-060340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER CUSTER FALLON
POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD
$$
SDC019-033-047-063-081-093-103-113-060340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER
HARDING LAWRENCE MEADE
PENNINGTON SHANNON
$$
WYC005-011-045-060340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 811
VALID 060140Z - 060240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..08/06/08
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 811
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-017-025-075-087-060240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER CUSTER FALLON
POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD
$$
SDC019-033-047-063-081-093-103-113-060240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER
HARDING LAWRENCE MEADE
PENNINGTON SHANNON
$$
WYC005-011-045-060240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 811
VALID 060030Z - 060140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..08/06/08
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 811
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-017-025-075-087-060140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER CUSTER FALLON
POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD
$$
SDC019-033-047-063-081-093-103-113-060140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER
HARDING LAWRENCE MEADE
PENNINGTON SHANNON
$$
WYC005-011-045-060140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.