Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 911
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MARFA TEXAS TO 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF BIG SPRING
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD INTO FAR W
TX AND SE NM AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS W
CENTRAL TX AND SE NM IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...WHERE SURFACE
HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND DEWPOINTS OF 56-60 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE THE HAIL THREAT...WHILE
CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN EXTENSIVE N-S BAND
BY THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS. ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF/ISOLATED
GIVEN ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...THOMPSON
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 911
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MARFA TEXAS TO 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF BIG SPRING
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD INTO FAR W
TX AND SE NM AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS W
CENTRAL TX AND SE NM IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...WHERE SURFACE
HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND DEWPOINTS OF 56-60 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE THE HAIL THREAT...WHILE
CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN EXTENSIVE N-S BAND
BY THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS. ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF/ISOLATED
GIVEN ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 911 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 051910Z - 060200Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50NNW MRF/MARFA TX/ - 75NE BGS/BIG SPRING TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /49NNW MRF - 48NW ABI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 32110433 34060058 31890058 29950433
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 911 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 911
VALID 060125Z - 060240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE MAF
TO 20 N BGS TO 65 ESE LBB TO 20 ESE CDS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2310.
..EDWARDS..10/06/08
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 911
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-060240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA
$$
TXC003-033-101-103-107-109-115-125-135-165-169-173-227-263-269-
301-303-305-317-329-335-345-371-383-389-415-433-443-445-461-475-
495-501-060240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BORDEN COTTLE
CRANE CROSBY CULBERSON
DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR
GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK
HOWARD KENT KING
LOVING LUBBOCK LYNN
MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL
MOTLEY PECOS REAGAN
REEVES SCURRY STONEWALL
TERRELL TERRY UPTON
WARD WINKLER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 911
VALID 060035Z - 060140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE FST
TO 25 N MAF TO 35 SSW CDS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2309.
..GRAMS..10/06/08
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 911
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-101-103-125-169-173-227-263-269-317-329-335-371-383-415-
433-443-461-060140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN COTTLE CRANE
DICKENS GARZA GLASSCOCK
HOWARD KENT KING
MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL
PECOS REAGAN SCURRY
STONEWALL TERRELL UPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 911
VALID 052330Z - 060040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FST
TO 20 NE INK TO 15 SE LBB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2309.
..GRAMS..10/05/08
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 911
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC003-033-101-103-107-115-125-135-169-173-227-263-269-305-317-
329-335-345-371-383-415-433-443-461-475-495-060040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BORDEN COTTLE
CRANE CROSBY DAWSON
DICKENS ECTOR GARZA
GLASSCOCK HOWARD KENT
KING LYNN MARTIN
MIDLAND MITCHELL MOTLEY
PECOS REAGAN SCURRY
STONEWALL TERRELL UPTON
WARD WINKLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 911
VALID 052235Z - 052340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MRF TO
20 WSW HOB.
..GRAMS..10/05/08
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 911
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC025-052340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEA
$$
TXC003-033-101-103-107-115-125-135-165-169-173-227-263-269-301-
303-305-317-329-335-345-371-383-389-415-433-443-445-461-475-495-
501-052340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BORDEN COTTLE
CRANE CROSBY DAWSON
DICKENS ECTOR GAINES
GARZA GLASSCOCK HOWARD
KENT KING LOVING
LUBBOCK LYNN MARTIN
MIDLAND MITCHELL MOTLEY
PECOS REAGAN REEVES
SCURRY STONEWALL TERRELL
TERRY UPTON WARD
WINKLER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 911
VALID 052130Z - 052240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..10/05/08
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 911
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-052240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA
$$
TXC003-033-101-103-107-109-115-125-135-165-169-173-227-263-269-
301-303-305-317-329-335-345-371-383-389-415-433-443-445-461-475-
495-501-052240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BORDEN COTTLE
CRANE CROSBY CULBERSON
DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR
GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK
HOWARD KENT KING
LOVING LUBBOCK LYNN
MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL
MOTLEY PECOS REAGAN
REEVES SCURRY STONEWALL
TERRELL TERRY UPTON
WARD WINKLER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 911
VALID 052050Z - 052140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..10/05/08
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 911
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-052140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA
$$
TXC003-033-101-103-107-109-115-125-135-165-169-173-227-263-269-
301-303-305-317-329-335-345-371-383-389-415-433-443-445-461-475-
495-501-052140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BORDEN COTTLE
CRANE CROSBY CULBERSON
DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR
GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK
HOWARD KENT KING
LOVING LUBBOCK LYNN
MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL
MOTLEY PECOS REAGAN
REEVES SCURRY STONEWALL
TERRELL TERRY UPTON
WARD WINKLER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 911
VALID 052000Z - 052140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..10/05/08
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 911
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-052140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA
$$
TXC003-033-101-103-107-109-115-125-135-165-169-173-227-263-269-
301-303-305-317-329-335-345-371-383-389-415-433-443-445-461-475-
495-501-052140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BORDEN COTTLE
CRANE CROSBY CULBERSON
DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR
GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK
HOWARD KENT KING
LOVING LUBBOCK LYNN
MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL
MOTLEY PECOS REAGAN
REEVES SCURRY STONEWALL
TERRELL TERRY UPTON
WARD WINKLER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.