Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 912
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
705 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 705 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ABILENE TEXAS TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JUNCTION TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 911...
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND INTENSIFYING SQUALL LINE
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE SJT AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...POSING A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASING
STABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 912 SEVERE TSTM TX 060005Z - 060600Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60NW ABI/ABILENE TX/ - 55WSW JCT/JUNCTION TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /43NW ABI - 48WSW JCT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 33029945 30209969 30200154 33020136
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 912 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 912
VALID 060350Z - 060440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE 6R6
TO 15 S SJT TO 15 WSW ABI TO 40 NNW ABI.
..EDWARDS..10/06/08
ATTN...WFO...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 912
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC095-105-253-267-327-399-413-435-441-451-060440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CONCHO CROCKETT JONES
KIMBLE MENARD RUNNELS
SCHLEICHER SUTTON TAYLOR
TOM GREEN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 912
VALID 060235Z - 060340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW SJT
TO 40 ESE BGS TO 70 NW ABI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2310.
..EDWARDS..10/06/08
ATTN...WFO...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 912
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC081-095-105-151-235-253-267-327-353-399-413-431-435-441-451-
060340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COKE CONCHO CROCKETT
FISHER IRION JONES
KIMBLE MENARD NOLAN
RUNNELS SCHLEICHER STERLING
SUTTON TAYLOR TOM GREEN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 912
VALID 060125Z - 060240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BGS TO
60 SE LBB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2310.
..EDWARDS..10/06/08
ATTN...WFO...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 912
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC081-095-105-151-235-253-267-327-353-399-413-431-435-441-451-
060240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COKE CONCHO CROCKETT
FISHER IRION JONES
KIMBLE MENARD NOLAN
RUNNELS SCHLEICHER STERLING
SUTTON TAYLOR TOM GREEN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.