NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Major Severe Weather Outbreak is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

A severe weather outbreak appears increasingly likely, centered on this afternoon and evening, across a large portion of the Mississippi Valley. At least a few long-track, strong to potentially violent tornadoes are probable, particularly over portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-South. Swaths of intense damaging wind gusts along with very large hail are expected as well.

For additional details, see the current Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO).

A multi-media briefing is also available.

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast today. See details...

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Sat (04/01). See details...

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Fri (03/31)	Sat (04/01)	Sun (04/02)	Mon (04/03)	Tue (04/04)	Wed (04/05)	Thu (04/06)	Fri (04/07)
Severe	High	Slight	No Severe	No Area	Severe	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Critical	Critical	Critical	Critical	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 31 Mar

Tornado Probabilities: 31 Mar

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 31 Mar

Severe Hail Probabilities: 31 Mar

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 31 Mar

Significant Wind Probabilities: 31 Mar

Significant Hail Probabilities: 31 Mar

More severe weather climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


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Full-size plot here.

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La tormenta factor de riesgo.

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2023 Watch Summaries

Page last modified: March 31 2023 12:40 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 31 Mar

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 31 Mar

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 31 Mar

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 31 Mar

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Gallo, B.T., K.A. Wilson, J.J. Choate, K. Knopfmeier, P. Skinner, B. Roberts^*, P.L. Heinselman, I.L. Jirak, and A.J. Clark, 2022: Exploring the Watch-to-Warning Space: Experimental Outlook Performance during the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4328K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., and W.A. Gallus Jr., 2022: On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part II: Impacts on QPFs. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [5607K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., and W.A. Gallus Jr., 2022: On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part I: Changes in Cold Pool Evolution. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [3655K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., M.S. Elliott, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2022: Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2549K PDF]
Bentley, E.S., R.L. Thompson, B.R. Bowers, J.G. Gibbs, and S.E. Nelson, 2021: An Analysis of 2016-18 Tornadoes and National Weather Service Tornado Warnings across the Contiguous United States. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2942K PDF]
Edwards, R., H.E. Brooks, and H. Cohn, 2021: Changes in Tornado Climatology Accompanying the Enhanced Fujita Scale. Published in J. Appl. Meteor. Clim. [2250K PDF]
Krocak, M.J., M.D. Flournoy, and H.E. Brooks, 2021: Examining Subdaily Tornado Warning Performance and Associated Environmental Characteristics. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [888K PDF]
Krocak, M.J., and H.E. Brooks, 2021: The Influence of Weather Watch Type on the Quality of Tornado Warnings and Its Implications for Future Forecasting Systems. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [537K PDF]
Krocak, M.J., J.N. Allan, J.T. Ripberger, C.L. Silva, and H.C. Jenkins-Smith, 2021: An Analysis of Tornado Warning Reception and Response across Time: Leveraging Respondents' Confidence and a Nocturnal Tornado Climatology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [938K PDF]
Trujillo-Falcon, J.E., O. Bermudez, K. Negron-Hernandez, J. Lipski, E. Leitman, and K. Berry, 2021: Hazardous Weather Communication en Espanol: Challenges, Current Resources, and Future Practices. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. [5004K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Mar 26, 2023	Tornado: 1	Wind: 67	Hail: 96

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