MKC MCD 191010
NDZ000-SDZ000-MNZ000-191200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563 FOR SE ND/NE SD/W CNTRL AND SW MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586...

BOW ECHO CONFIGURATION IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOPS HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR...AS OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNBURST NEAR/NORTH OF ABERDEEN SURGED WELL IN ADVANCE OF INTENSE
LINE OF STORMS. NEW CELLS ARE DEVELOPING ABOVE OUTFLOW...WITH
STRONGEST STORM OVER SPINK COUNTY SOUTH DAKOTA...NEAR INTERSECTION
OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

GENERAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WEST OF ALEXANDRIA...BETWEEN 11-12Z.
SEVERE CELL ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA BETWEEN WORTHINGTON AND REDWOOD FALLS.


..KERR.. 07/19/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 191137
MKC MCD 191137
MNZ000-191300-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1564 FOR CNTRL/SRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586...

CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND FORTHCOMING RAOB FROM MINNEAPOLIS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW.

INTENSE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO FILL BACK IN ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO ADVANCE
EAST OF THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER. FORWARD PROPAGATION HAS
SLOWED TO AROUND 35 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...PROGRESS
INTO UPPER RIDGE AXIS. DESPITE WEAKER FLOW REGIME...THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PRESENCE OF DRY AIR...MAY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

COMPLEX APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
SURFACE MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
FROM THE ALEXANDRIA AREA INTO THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL AREA BETWEEN
12-15Z.


..KERR.. 07/19/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 191641
MKC MCD 191641
MTZ000-NDZ000-191900-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565 FOR ERN MT...
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING NEWD OVER CENTRAL MT. UPPER DIVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THIS
TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER ERN MT...WHERE
THE LOW LEVELS ARE DESTABILIZING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT MORE INTENSE CONVECTION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 40-45 KT. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO WRN ND BY MID
AFTERNOON.


..THOMPSON.. 07/19/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 191731
MKC MCD 191731
MOZ000-191930-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566 FOR MO
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

MONITORING REGION FOR CONVECTION AS VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
INDICATIONS OF INCREASING CUMULUS BANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AREA.

WEST OF DECAYING MCS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID- MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AMIDST CLEAR SKIES WITH
SCATTERED BLOWOFF CIRRUS CLOUDS. COUNTERCLOCKWISE SWIRL TO CUMULUS
BANDS EXISTS ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN IA/NWRN MO WITH STORMS INCREASING
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AROUND IRK TOWARDS STJ. AIRMASS IN THIS
REGION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S LEADING TO 50MB MIXED
LAYER CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. MSAS DATA REVEALS WEAK SFC LOW
AROUND 50 MILES W STL WITH A NW-SE REGION OF CONVERGENCE FROM SUX
IN IA SEWD TO POF IN SERN MO.

SFCOA DATA/VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS CNTRL MO FROM AROUND STL TO NEAR SZL IN REGION OF VERY
UNSTABLE AIR WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S AND 50MB MIXED
CAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG. GIVEN AMOUNT OF

INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND AROUND 15 KT OF MID-LEVEL SPEED
SHEAR...EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.


..NADEN.. 07/19/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 192035
MKC MCD 192035
SDZ000-NDZ000-192300-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1567 FOR N CENTRAL SD/S CENTRAL ND...
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND SPREAD NEWD
FROM NRN SD INTO SRN ND IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS INTENSIFIED RECENTLY IN THE
DEWEY/CORSON COUNTY AREA OF SD...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID/
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING ENEWD TOWARD SRN ND. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS DESTABILIZED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN SD IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...AND SBCAPE VALUES NOW RANGE FROM
3500-5000 J/KG. DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO CONTINUE NWD INTO ND AS
THE WEAKENING COLD POOL OVER SE ND ERODES WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME
HEATING...AND THIS WOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM THREAT NEWD INTO
ND. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 35-40 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN
SD/SRN ND...A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..THOMPSON.. 07/19/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 192149
MKC MCD 192149
MTZ000-NDZ000-200000-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568 FOR ERN MT AND WRN AND N CENTRAL ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587.

ADDITIONAL AREAS OF WRN AND CENTRAL ND BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
WW.

INTENSE/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ABOUT 25 KT
THROUGH EXTREME NERN MT AND NWRN ND. PRESENT MOVEMENT OF CELL JUST
NORTHEAST OF ISN WOULD HAVE IT MOVING OUT OF WATCH JUST SOUTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER ABOUT 23Z. SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CONTINUES ALONG BOUNDARY SOUTH OF CURRENT ACTIVITY INTO SERN MT AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ON
BOUNDARY NEAR MT BORDER WNW OF DIK. WE ARE MONITORING THIS
SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT WATCH THAT WOULD INCLUDE
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF ND EAST OF WW 587.


..JOHNS.. 07/19/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 192204
MKC MCD 192204
SDZ000-200000-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569 FOR WRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

AREAS OF WRN SD BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER WRN SD WITH WELL DEFINED DRY
LINE SHOWING UP THROUGH EXTREME ERN WY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS DRY LINE OVER NERN WY WITH OTHER
CELLS FORMING FARTHER E. SBCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG ARE
PRESENT OVER WRN SD AND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH OF
SUSTAINED ORGANIZED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WW IS LIKELY IF THIS DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRY LINE
CONTINUES.


..JOHNS.. 07/19/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 192213
MKC MCD 192213
SDZ000-200000-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1570 FOR WRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL... CORRECTED FOR MCD

NR.

AREAS OF WRN SD BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER WRN SD WITH WELL DEFINED DRY
LINE SHOWING UP THROUGH EXTREME ERN WY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS DRY LINE OVER NERN WY WITH OTHER
CELLS FORMING FARTHER E. SBCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG ARE
PRESENT OVER WRN SD AND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH OF
SUSTAINED ORGANIZED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WW IS LIKELY IF THIS DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRY LINE
CONTINUES.


..JOHNS.. 07/19/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 192252
MKC MCD 192252
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-200230-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1571 FOR PORTIONS OF NERN CO/WRN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NWRN/N-CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NWRN/N-CENTRAL KS...NERN CO AND WRN NEB. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR A WW LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NEB AND
N-CENTRAL KS.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS PARTS OF ERN CO/NWRN KS.
HOWEVER CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA WAS DEVELOPING IN A DEEPLY
MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. LARGE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW COULD
ALLOW FOR THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS FAR NERN CO/WRN NEBRASKA...LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE NORTH OF A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH
MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS. THUS 0-6 KM SHEAR WAS
BETWEEN 35 TO 40 KTS...MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
CONVECTION. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA
HOWEVER WILL BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NCENTRAL KS IN A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER SHEAR PARAMETERS WERE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION PRESENTLY. IF CONVECTION ACROSS WRN
NEBRASKA/NCENTRAL KS CAN SURVIVE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHILE
MOVING EWD INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET/SHEAR PROFILES...THEN AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT MAY
BECOME MORE REALIZED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PORTIONS OF
WRN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NCENTRAL KS FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS
EVENING.


..CROSBIE.. 07/19/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 192340
MKC MCD 192340
SDZ000-NDZ000-200200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572 FOR NERN AND E CNTRL SD AND SERN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NERN AND E CENTRAL SD AND POSSIBLY
SERN ND WITHIN NEXT HOUR.

BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING ON NW EDGE OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AXIS OVER ERN SD. MID LEVEL FLOW IS MARGINAL. HOWEVER
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGEST A RISK OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ESEWD ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. IF DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER NERN AND E CENTRAL SD AND
POSSIBLY SERN ND.


..JOHNS.. 07/19/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 192349
MKC MCD 192349
WIZ000-MNZ000-200230-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573 FOR PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL
WI/SERN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF
INTENSIFYING ACROSS NERN/N-CENTRAL WI. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG A WELL DEFINED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TAYLOR CO IN NCENTRAL WI EWD
TO NEAR THE TWIN CITIES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MODERATE
ACROSS THE AREA...LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN
NEEDED FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE AREA IN CASE GREATER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION BEGINS TO OCCUR.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS INDICATING CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION
ACROSS NCENTRAL/NERN WI. THIS WAS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER AN APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE AS
NOTED ON WV IMAGERY MOVING THROUGH ERN MN. CONVECTION INITIATION
WAS ALSO OCCURING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCENTRAL WI TO THE SOUTH OF
EAU CLAIRE EWD TO NEAR THE TWIN CITIES ALONG A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND IN A REGION OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION. CONTINUED
DEEP LAYER LIFT/WEAKENING OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL COUPLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY /SBCAPES
NEAR 4000 J/KG/ TO AID IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...WITH 30 KTS NOTED AT 5 KM ON LATEST MINNEAPOLIS VWP.
HOWEVER...SURFACE WIND FIELDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK/VARIABLE. THUS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION. MAIN SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. IF ONGOING/ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA CAN ESTABLISH A WELL DEVELOPED COLD
POOL...THEN THE SEVERE WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURING ACROSS SRN WI ALONG
A WEAKLY DEFINED SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE NEAR MSN. AGAIN
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SLOWLY
INCREASING WITH TIME. MAIN THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE
HEAVY RAIN...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

..CROSBIE.. 07/19/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 200052
MKC MCD 200052
MTZ000-200300-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576 FOR ERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

WW MAY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MT SHORTLY.

WNW/ESE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER S CENTRAL MT AND
IS MOVING NNEWD INTO NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS
BEHIND FRONT NEAR MT/ND BORDER...MOISTURE INCREASES AS ONE GOES
NEWD INTO NERN MT WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES REACH 2000 J/KG.
GIVEN STRONG SHEAR OVER AREA...THUNDERSTORMS OVER S CENTRAL MT MAY
INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THEY MOVE NEWD INTO AREAS OF
GREATER INSTABILITY. WW MAY NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MT AHEAD
OF THUNDERSTORM BAND AS IT MOVES NEWD.


..JOHNS.. 07/20/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 200113
MKC MCD 200113
MTZ000-NDZ000-200400-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577 FOR EXTREME ERN MT AND WRN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 589.

EARLIER ACTIVITY THAT WAS OVER NWRN ND HAS EITHER DISAPPATED OR
MOVED INTO CANADA. HOWEVER...NEW CELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON
BOUNDARY IN EXTREME ERN MT SW OF ISN. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND BECOME SEVERE AS IT MOVES INTO VERY
STRONG INSTABILITY OVER NWRN ND. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR WITH THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
OTHER CELLS OVER SERN MT AND NWRN SD ARE LIKELY TO MOVE INTO SWRN
ND WITH MULTICELLS AND RISK OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.


..JOHNS.. 07/20/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 200144
MKC MCD 200144
SDZ000-200330-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578 FOR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 591.

SUPERCELL THAT EARLIER PRODUCED A TORNADO CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD
ALONG OLD BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT HAS BEEN DECREASING DURING PAST
HOUR AND IT APPEARS THAT GUST FRONT HAS RACED ON SE OF THE CELL
CUTTING OFF THE INFLOW TO THE STORM. THIS SUGGESTS CELL MAY
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. HOWEVER...AS OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY MOVING
EWD FROM CENTRAL SD INTERSECTS OUTFLOW FROM SUPERCELL NEW ENHANCED
DEVELOPMENT MAY TAKE PLACE TO THE EAST OF PIR.


..JOHNS.. 07/20/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 200208
MKC MCD 200208
KSZ000-MOZ000-200330-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579 FOR NERN KS AND NRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 590...

SEVERE BOW ECHO THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS FAR NERN KS HAS QUICKLY
WEAKENED OVER THE LAST HOUR. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ELEVATED
CONVECTION WAS REDEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF FAR NRN MO JUST NORTH OF
WW 590. LATEST VWP OUT OF OMAHA AND TOPEKA INDICATE A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET WITH 30 KTS NOTED AT 1 KM AT TOPEKA. AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNSTABLE ACROSS WW 590 WITH MUCAPES RANGING
FROM 4000 TO 5000 J/KG. 00Z SOUNDING FROM TOPEKA INDICATES WEAK
CAPPING ACROSS NERN KS...THUS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ELEVATED NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN PART
OF WW 590.

STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/LACK OF SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE
WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR KEEPING SRN PORTIONS OF WW 590 VALID.
HOWEVER...WITH AFOREMENTIONED MARGINAL THREAT OF ELEVATED SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW 590 WE WILL NOT CANCEL ALL OF
WW 590 AT THIS TIME. IF CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW 590...THEN REMAINDER OF WW
WILL NEED TO BE CANCELLED.


..CROSBIE.. 07/20/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN

ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 200235
MKC MCD 200235
NDZ000-SDZ000-200430-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1580 FOR SD AND ND
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 589 AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588

THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVING EWD ALONG ND/SD BORDER NEAR Y22 IS
LIKELY TO COLLIDE WITH NWD MOVING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NWD
FROM SW OF Y26. CURRENT PROJECTIONS WOULD HAVE THE MERGER TAKING
PLACE IN WESTERN CORSON CO SD ABOUT 03Z WITH THE MERGER CONTINUING
TO TAKE PLACE NEWD INTO SRN MORTON CO ND BY 0430Z. THERE MAY BE
ENHANCE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THIS MERGER TAKES PLACE.

..JOHNS.. 07/20/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 200346
MKC MCD 200346
NDZ000-SDZ000-200600-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1581 FOR ND AND NERN SD
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 589...591...

TORNADO WATCHES 589 AND 591 LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ONE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH OVER ND AND POSSIBLY NERN SD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED INTO A WNW/ESE BAND FROM NWRN
ND TO N CNTRL SD. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD INTO ELY
SURFACE FLOW ON N SIDE OF BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN MN TO S
CENTRAL ND. LINEAR NATURE OF BAND AND RELATIVELY WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW SUGGEST TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. PRIND..TORNADO
WATCHES WILL BE REPLACED WITHIN AN HOUR BY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ORIENTED NW/SE AHEAD OF THE LINE.


..JOHNS.. 07/20/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 200615
MKC MCD 200615
NDZ000-MNZ000-200715-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1582 FOR CNTRL/ERN ND AND NWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

POTENTIAL...
WNW-ESE ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD AT 45 KTS
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ND WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY BEING MAINTAINED BY LARGE SCALE
UVV...OWING TO PASSAGE OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MUCAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG FROM THE RED RIVER WWD...WITH VALUES
DECREASING EWD ACROSS NWRN MN. VWP FROM GRAND FORKS AND WOOD LAKE
PROFILER SUGGEST THAT THE MIDLEVEL FLOW IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE
WITH WIND IN THE 3-5 KM LAYER BELOW 25 KTS AND WEAK SELY LOW LEVEL
FLOW. QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EWD THAT TSTMS CAN MAINTAIN SEVERE
CHARACTERISTICS. PRIND THAT TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR A SMALL PART OF ERN/NERN ND INTO NWRN
MN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND AN ADDITIONAL SMALL WW MAY BE
NEEDED ALONG/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE RED RIVER.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
LINEAR MCS ACROSS NWRN/SWRN ND WHERE BROAD WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR
A COUPLE MORE HOURS...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS WILL REMAIN
SUBSEVERE.


..RACY.. 07/20/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 200737
MKC MCD 200737
NDZ000-200845-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1583 FOR PORTION OF ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594...

ARC OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL THROUGH ERN AND THEN INTO SRN ND
CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD AT 35 KTS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CROSSING THE RED RIVER INTO MN/NEWLY ISSUED WW 595 BY 0800 UTC.
GFK RADAR INDICATES 40-55 KTS INBOUND VELOCITIES WITH A FEW OF THE
STRONGER TSTMS...AND POTENTIAL WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST AS THE LINE
MOVES INTO NWRN MN.

OTHER TSTMS HAVE RAPIDLY FORMED OVER NWRN SD...ALONG/NORTH OF A
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RENEWED ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS TO BE
THE IMPETUS FOR THE CONVECTION AS EVIDENCED BY THE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30-35 KTS PER RAPID CITY VWP. AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED
SOMEWHAT OVER SRN ND/ALONG SRN EDGE OF WW 594. HOWEVER GIVEN STEEP
MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
COULD BE ISOLD LARGE HAIL/MARGINAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THESE
STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO SRN ND TO THE SOUTH OF BIS IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE SRN PORTION OF
WW 594 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEWLY DEVELOPED ACTIVITY.

..RACY.. 07/20/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 200801
MKC MCD 200801
IAZ000-MOZ000-201100-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584 FOR SWRN IA AND EXTREME NWRN MO
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...

TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FORMING AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS
SWRN IA AND EXTREME NWRN MO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO EXIST IN AN 80 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR
CENTERED FROM 40 E OF SUX TO 45 W DSM TO 50 NE MCI.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING
NEWD INTO SWRN NEB AROUND PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OF 30-35 KTS CONTINUES TO RESPOND TO THIS FEATURE WITH
AREA VWPS/PROFILERS SHOWING THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB JET EDGING INTO
NERN KS/SERN NEB. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG/NORTH OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT SITUATED FROM NORTH OF TOP TO
NORTH OF MCI IS AIDING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THAT MOISTURE IS
RATHER HIGH ACROSS THE REGION /00 UTC 850 MB DEW POINT AT TOP WAS
15C/ AND THAT SOUNDINGS REVEAL A RATHER DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH
/15000 FEET OR HIGHER/...TSTMS ARE APT TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS.

VWP FROM MCI/OMA SHOW STORM MOTION TO BE ONLY 10 KTS GIVEN SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET BENEATH 15-20 KT NNWLY FLOW ABOVE 2.5 KM. THUS...STORMS
WILL TEND TO BACKBUILD AND TRAIN SEWD INTO EXTREME NWRN MO. THE
ENTIRE DEVELOPING MCS MAY SHIFT SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE DSM AREA BY
12 UTC AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS WITH TIME AND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES.


..RACY.. 07/20/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 200959
MKC MCD 200959
SDZ000-MNZ000-201130-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1585 FOR NERN SD INTO WCNTRL MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED ACTIVITY THAT FORMED EARLIER OVER NWRN SD
HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED SINCE 0930 UTC AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
BOWING. PER MESOANALYSIS...THE ECHO MAY BE FOLLOWING AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT EMANATED IN PART FROM ANOTHER STRONG TSTM OVER
EXTREME NERN SD. ATTM...CELL MOVEMENT IS ONLY AROUND 25 KTS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE...MUCAPES TO
4000 J/KG...AND THE HISTORY OF TSTMS PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS
OVER NRN SD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION. IF CELLS SEEM TO MAINTAIN
STRENGTH AND INCREASE FORWARD MOVEMENT...ANOTHER WW MAY BE
NECESSARY FROM PARTS OF NRN/ERN SD INTO WCNTRL MN.


..RACY.. 07/20/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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