SPC MCD 101022
KYZ000-101145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0422 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN KY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 742...

VALID 101022Z - 101145Z
REMAINDER OF WW 742 MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 12Z
EXPIRATION IF PRESENT WEAKENING TRENDS CONTINUE WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL KY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL CINH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO OVERALL WEAKENING TREND...WITH MOST
INFLOW ROOTED ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SHOULD DECREASE BOTH
MUCAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH SURFACE.
MEANWHILE...PRIMARY THREATS NEXT 1-2 HOURS ARE MARGINAL SEVERE
WIND/HAIL. EXPECT RISK TO DECREASE EWD INTO ERN KY WHERE STATIC
STABILITY INCREASES WITH PROXIMITY TO MOUNTAINS.


..EDWARDS.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
37088489 37738620 38068442
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101555
SPC MCD 101555
ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-101900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0955 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SRN IND/WRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101555Z - 101900Z
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...IN ADVANCE OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SPRINGFIELD IL AND ST.
LOUIS MO AREAS. IN WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF OUTFLOW...DEW
POINTS ARE CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S...WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
LIKELY TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO/THROUGH THE 70S DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF 1500 TO
2000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN EXIT REGION OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING ACROSS THE
OZARKS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/
LOWER OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. GIVEN ONGOING
DESTABILIZATION...THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF AND
RAPID INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN SURFACE WARM SECTOR
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. LATEST RADAR/LIGHTNING DATA ALREADY
INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
ABOVE/NORTH OF SURFACE OUTFLOW...NORTH OF THE MOUNT VERNON IL
AREA.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG...AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS

...WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
38858955 39558842 39238719 39028618 38288538 37568594
36758685 36668871 37368960 37948978
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101735
SPC MCD 101735
INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-101930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...SRN LWR MI...NW OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101735Z - 101930Z
WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED IN
TONGUE OF 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AS FAR
NORTH AS LOWER MICHIGAN. RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH
HAS OCCURRED PAST HOUR OR SO JUST AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE
TO PROGRESSION OF UPPER FORCING...TOWARD THE SOUTH BEND IND AREA.

WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND
A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...FURTHER EVOLUTION INTO
SQUALL LINE APPEARS LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT DAMAGING WINDS IN 40 TO 50 KT MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT.
NARROW LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORT WAYNE IND... TOLEDO/FINDLAY OH...AND DETROIT MI AREAS BY THE
21/22Z TIME FRAME.


..KERR.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
40628659 41618554 42838494 42958375 42738303 41758267
40568395 39718504 39518632 40088663
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101828
SPC MCD 101828
INZ000-102030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL IND
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 743...

VALID 101828Z - 102030Z
THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITH MAXIMUM 2 HOUR
FALLS CENTERED OVER THE INDIANAPOLIS/BLOOMINGTON IND AREA. OLD
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY HAS ERODED...AND DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE MID 60S...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S. CAPE
HAS INCREASED INTO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA

...WHERE BACKING SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE BENEATH STRENGTHENING FLOW ALONG MID/UPPER JET AXIS.
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE...WITH ENHANCED THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITHIN THE NEXT
2 TO 3 HOURS.


..KERR.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
39718704 39948665 39888599 39528577 39228591 38838642
38618706 39058740
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101955
SPC MCD 101955
MOZ000-ARZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-102200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...NE AR...WRN KY AND WRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101955Z - 102200Z
NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW 743 WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT/WEAK DRY LINE HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN KENTUCKY/WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN A FEW DEGREES IN THE WAKE OF
THIS BOUNDARY...ENVIRONMENT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF FRONT REMAINS
UNSTABLE...AND SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY.
CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING PAST FEW HOURS ALONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
STRONG...AND SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO
SEVERE SQUALL LINE. GIVEN VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN WAKE OF
SURFACE WIND SHIFT...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.


..KERR.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
36339082 36819023 37118978 37238878 36238873 34848995
34379078 34269136 34609163 35329149
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102014
SPC MCD 102014
KYZ000-TNZ000-102215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KY/MIDDLE TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 102014Z - 102215Z
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NEW WWS
INCLUDING CENTRAL/PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO.

DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE NEAR NASHVILLE SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS
WEAKENING IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 80F...WITH LOWER/MID 60S DEW
POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. AS CAP WEAKENS
FURTHER...CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT . A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY WHERE WARM ADVECTION BECOMES MAXIMIZED
ALONG LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR NASHVILLE TN INTO
AREAS NEAR/EAST OF LEXINGTON KY.


..KERR.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
36308730 37018667 37748594 38318550 38578446 38008396
37388416 36638480 35758548 35238665 35308751 35688763
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102115
SPC MCD 102115
KYZ000-INZ000-OHZ000-102315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/N CNTRL KY...SRN/ERN IND...WRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 743...744...745...

VALID 102115Z - 102315Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTION OF
WEATHER WATCHES 743...744...745. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 744
MAY BE REPLACED WITH NEW TORNADO WW SHORTLY.

PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO SOLIDIFY FROM NORTHWEST OHIO
INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW REGIME...BUT GIVEN STRONG
WIND
SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS WW AREAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW
744 MAY BE REPLACED WITH NEW TORNADO WW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
SHORTLY.

FIELDS/VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...AND PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT DRY
AIR IN MID-LEVELS...LINE APPEARS LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN INTO ONE OR
MORE BOWING SEGMENTS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THIS
OCCURS... POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST INDIANA/OHIO/WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL WHICH PROGRESSED SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EAST OF FORT WAYNE IND...INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...HAS MERGED INTO
SQUALL LINE. BUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH ENHANCED
THREAT FOR TORNADOES...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...MOSTLY ALONG 50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR NASHVILLE TN INTO AREAS
EAST OF LEXINGTON KY AND COLUMBUS OH.


..KERR.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
37718818 38408688 39368567 40548457 41228431 41588311
41398163 40578160 39668219 38378355 37438484 37018610
36458983
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102155
SPC MCD 102155
MSZ000-ALZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-110000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...MS...AL...GA...FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 102155Z - 110000Z
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT.

MID-LEVEL CAP HAS GENERALLY INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD/WEAK
WARM ADVECTION REGIME HAS WEAKENED CAP SOME...LEADING TO
INCREASING...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS APPEARS TO ALONG/WEST OF
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED IN NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS MISSISSIPPI...
WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WEAKENING CAP FURTHER BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR
LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.


..KERR.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
31229104 32909052 34138985 34758900 34568809 32128813
31388885 30858996
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102240
SPC MCD 102240
OHZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-110045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2174
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0440 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OHIO...NRN KY...SERN IN...
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 745...747...

VALID 102240Z - 110045Z
TORNADO THREAT REMAINS VERY HIGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY AND OH.
THREAT OF LONG TRACKED SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IS ESPECIALLY HIGH
IN NERN OHIO.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS LINE OF SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING ALONG COLD
FRONT...FROM NWRN OH SWWD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WHILE
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS LINE...THE
HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...FROM CENTRAL KY NEWD INTO SRN AND ERN OH.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 22Z SHOWS STRONG PRESSURE RISE/FALL
COUPLET ALONG THE IN/KY BORDER...WITH ANOTHER FALL AREA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. WITH A CONTINUALLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AND
STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING...EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT OF SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITHIN WARM
SECTOR...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF RISE/FALL COUPLETS.

..JEWELL.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
40408310 40398120 38848302 37308484 37318666 37308847
38848673 40398500
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102322
SPC MCD 102322
OHZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-110145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN NY...WRN PA...NRN WV
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 102322Z - 110145Z
A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE
REST OF ERN OH...EXTREME WRN NY...WRN PA AND PORTIONS OF NRN WV.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 2-3 MILLIBAR PRESSURE FALLS
SPREADING INTO WRN NY/PA AS OF 23Z. INSTABILITY FIELDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...AND WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUSTAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AREA HODOGRAPHS ARE EXHIBITING
STRONG LOW LEVEL CURVATURE...WITH 0-3 SRH ON THE ORDER OF 300-500
M2/S2. HIGH RH BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.


..JEWELL.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
40488174 41908069 42477908 43287889 42997814 41777856
39518004 39498213
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102326
SPC MCD 102326
ARZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-KYZ000-110130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...WEST AND MIDDLE TN...SRN KY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 746...

VALID 102326Z - 110130Z
---VERY DANGEROUS SCENARIO UNFOLDING WITH THREAT OF LONG TRACK
STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES---
SERIES OF SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE MOVING
250/40 KNOTS. AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THIS AREA WITH
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. OKOLONA MS PROFILER HAS SHOWN 500 MB
WINDS OF 80-85 KNOTS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
HUNTSVILLE/NASHVILLE VAD WIND PROFILES SUGGEST 0-1 KM SHEAR OF
20-30 KNOTS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2.

IN ENVIRONMENTS LIKE THIS WITH EXCESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE
SUPERCELLS OFTEN TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO TO ESTABLISH STRONG LOW
LEVEL ROTATION AND TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...ONCE TORNADOGENESIS
BEGINS...LONG TRACK POTENTIAL IS QUITE HIGH.
TRAILING SQUALL LINE JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ALSO HAS NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING.


..CRAVEN.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
37308659 37278387 36128492 34978597 35008862 34979127
36129029 37278932
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102352
SPC MCD 102352
KYZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-110245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...ERN TN...PORTIONS OF WRN VA...WV
CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS

VALID 102352Z - 110245Z
THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES MAY BE ENHANCED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS OVER ERN KY...ERN TN...EXTREME WRN VA INTO SWRN WV.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BACKED SELY SURFACE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WHICH HAS ACTED TO INCREASE 0-3 KM SRH
HELICITY VALUES TO OVER 500 M2/S2. SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR JKL SWWD TO 0QT AND M82 WILL MOVE INTO THIS
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MAY ACT TO ENHANCE
THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES.


..JEWELL.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
40488174 41908069 42477908 43287889 42997814 41777856
39518004 39498213
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110036
SPC MCD 110036
ARZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-KYZ000-110230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...WEST AND MIDDLE TN...SRN KY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 746...

VALID 110036Z - 110230Z
---VERY DANGEROUS SCENARIO UNFOLDING WITH THREAT OF LONG TRACK
STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES---
SERIES OF SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE MOVING
250/40 KNOTS. AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THIS AREA WITH
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. OKOLONA MS PROFILER HAS SHOWN 500 MB
WINDS OF 80-85 KNOTS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
HUNTSVILLE/NASHVILLE VAD WIND PROFILES SUGGEST 0-1 KM SHEAR OF
20-30 KNOTS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2.

IN ENVIRONMENTS LIKE THIS WITH EXCESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE
SUPERCELLS OFTEN TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO TO ESTABLISH STRONG LOW
LEVEL ROTATION AND TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...ONCE TORNADOGENESIS
BEGINS...LONG TRACK POTENTIAL IS QUITE HIGH.
TRAILING SQUALL LINE JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ALSO HAS NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING.


..CRAVEN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
37308659 37278387 36128492 34978597 35008862 34979127
36129029 37278932
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110052
SPC MCD 110052
ALZ000-MSZ000-110245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 748...

VALID 110052Z - 110245Z
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM JAN/BMX WERE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO POTENTIAL. BOTH HAD MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG...0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS...AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 65 KNOTS. MLLCL HEIGHTS
WERE ALSO BELOW 1000 M AGL. GIVEN SUPERCELL STORM

MODE...POTENTIAL FOR LONG TRACK STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES EXISTS
THIS EVENING. SINCE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR EXTENDS WELL INTO
GEORGIA...THESE STORMS WILL BE WITHIN VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR MANY HOURS.

TWO SWATHS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WERE
EVIDENT. ONE EXTENDED FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO NORTHWEST
ALABAMA. THE SECOND WAS JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. LEADING SUPERCELL
NOW ENTERING FAYETTE COUNTY ALABAMA UNDERWENT A SPLIT IN THE LAST
HOUR...AND HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT AS A RESULT. STORM
SHOULD TRACK ACROSS FAYETTE/WALKER COUNTIES AL THROUGH 0200Z AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CULLMAN/BLOUNT FROM 0200-0300Z.

..CRAVEN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
34978827 34948536 33298632 31648727 31679008 31649289
33299203 34949119
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110109
SPC MCD 110109
KYZ000-TNZ000-110215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/EAST TN...S CNTRL KY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 746...

VALID 110109Z - 110215Z
BAND OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS EXTENDS FROM BEDFORD TO CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE. AREA VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE VERY
STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KNOTS...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
ROTATION/HOOK ECHO CONFIGURATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE PAST
HOUR.

GIVEN MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...THREAT FOR LONG TRACK
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES EXISTS IN THIS CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.


..CRAVEN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
37308659 37278387 36128492 34978597 35008862 34979127
36129029 37278932
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110141
SPC MCD 110141
ALZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-110445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2181
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...FL PANHANDLE...SWRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 110141Z - 110445Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE AREA. A WW MAY BE
NECESSARY IF STORMS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.

STORMS ARE FORMING JUST INLAND DUE TO SHORELINE CONVERGENCE...AND
ARE BEING HELPED BY A WEAK UPPER FEATURE DEPICTED BY A MOIST
REGION IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TLH SOUNDING SHOWS AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS IN
AREA PROFILERS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW LOW LEVEL SHEAR
BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...E.G. 200-400 0-3
KM SRH. ADVECTION OF MID 70S F DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA WILL ALSO
ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT.


..JEWELL.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
30598695 31458649 32058440 30888366 30078428 29958517
30278593
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110207
SPC MCD 110207
INZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-110300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...IN...WRN OH...N-CENTRAL KY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 745...747...

VALID 110207Z - 110300Z
WW 745 AND 747 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z.

PRIMARY LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH ALL BUT EXTREME ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCHES. SEVERE
THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE OF
STORMS...AS STABLE AIR MOVES IN ON WLY WINDS.

..JEWELL.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
40408310 40398120 38848302 37308484 37318666 37308847
38848673 40398500
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110230
SPC MCD 110230
LAZ000-MSZ000-ALZ000-110430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0830 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL/SERN LA...SRN MS...SWRN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 110230Z - 110430Z
SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES/SUPERCELLS IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A TORNADO
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

VAD WIND PROFILES AND EARLIER 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM CRP/LIX INDICATE
THAT FLOW IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS FARTHER NORTH. LINE OF
STORMS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG SOUTHERN EXTENT OF COLD
FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...AIRMASS IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND 21/00Z RUC HAS INSISTED THAT STORMS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. GIVEN HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES DOES EXIST.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION OR
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AS LINE CROSSES MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.


..CRAVEN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
31639219 29439356 29188899 31618733
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110238
SPC MCD 110238
OHZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-110445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0838 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN OH...WRN PA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 750...

VALID 110238Z - 110445Z
SEVERE THREAT IS EVOLVING INTO MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND ONE.
STRONG FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...UNDERNEATH STRENGTHENING UPPER JET...WITH 0-6 KM MEAN
WIND SPEEDS OF 50-60 KTS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE LINE OF STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS MOVING E AT ABOUT 50 KTS WILL BE IN THE PIT
VICINITY AROUND 03Z. GIVEN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


..JEWELL.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
42057944 42047837 40867899 39677962 39678065 39678168
40868110 42048051
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110246
SPC MCD 110246
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-110345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 749...

VALID 110246Z - 110345Z
CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES WILL REQUIRE
RE-ISSUANCE OF NEW TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME AREA AS TORNADO WATCH 749.

SQUALL LINE CONTINUES MOVING ABOUT 300/30 KNOTS. THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
LINE CROSSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH PRE-SQUALL BAND OF SUPERCELLS
FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA. SINCE MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS ARE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
CURRENTLY...WILL EXTEND WATCH A BIT FURTHER EAST SINCE IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.


..CRAVEN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
39468108 39457940 37238159 35028379 35038538 35028697
37238487 39458277
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110317
SPC MCD 110317
LAZ000-MSZ000-ALZ000-GAZ000-110445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0917 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS TO NERN AL AND NRN GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 748...

VALID 110317Z - 110445Z
THREAT FOR STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO FROM MISSISSIPPI INTO GEORGIA.

LINE OF INTENSE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EXTENDS FROM THE JACKSON MS
AREA TO EAST OF HUNTSVILLE AL. STORMS HAVE SHOWN VERY HIGH
POSITIVE STRIKE COUNTS AND POSITIVE/TOTAL STRIKE RATIOS HAVE BEEN
AROUND 50 PERCENT...INDICATIVE OF VERY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT VAD WIND PROFILES FROM JACKSON MS/HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA
INDICATE 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR AND 60-65 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 70 F...AND PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT/LONG TRACK TORNADOES ARE IN PROGRESS
AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.


..CRAVEN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
34978827 34948536 33298632 31648727 31679008 31649289
33299203 34949119
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110533
SPC MCD 110533
NCZ000-VAZ000-110730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA/CNTRL NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 110533Z - 110730Z
GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND CENTRAL NC MAY
REQUIRE A TORNADO WATCH IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.


ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST HOUR
SOUTH OF ROA...WHILE SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST VA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THESE STORMS...WITH MUCAPE VALUES
OF OVER 500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL VA AND CENTRAL NC. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL RE-ORGANIZE EAST OF THE
RIDGETOPS. HOWEVER...THIS REGION IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED.

..HART.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
37088125 38137991 37577841 36337863 35158000 35328194
36118198
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110534
SPC MCD 110534
LAZ000-MSZ000-110700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 752...

VALID 110534Z - 110700Z
STORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS INCREASING IN CELL OVER MARION COUNTY
MS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED TO -67 C...AND POSITIVE LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN INCREASING. BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST
ACROSS WEATHER WATCH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F...AND VAD
WIND PROFILES FROM SLIDELL/MOBILE INDICATE 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25-35
KNOTS.

THUS...IT APPEARS THAT TORNADO THREAT IS INCREASING AS ACTIVITY
PUSHES TOWARD SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.


..CRAVEN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
30849151 31639151 31698996 31768841 30968841 30178841
30108996 30049151
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110545
SPC MCD 110545
ALZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-110715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...CNTRL/SRN GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 751...

VALID 110545Z - 110715Z
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA TO CENTRAL GEORGIA...WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN
ACTIVITY. DEWPOINTS ARE WELL INTO THE 70S F IN MOST OF THIS
AREA...INDICATIVE OF RETURN OF UNMODIFIED GULF OF MEXICO AIRMASS.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY BECOMES
SEVERE...IT APPEARS THAT BAND OF SUPERCELLS WILL EVENTUAL MOVE
INTO FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH WE
MAY BRIEFLY ALLOW TORNADO WATCH 751 TO EXPIRE...ADDITIONAL
WEATHER WATCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE
MOBILE/DOTHAN/MACON AREAS.


..CRAVEN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
30688622 31698622 31698469 31698316 30688316 29668316
29678469 29678622
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110649
SPC MCD 110649
GAZ000-SCZ000-110915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CST MON NOV 11 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN GA AND SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 110649Z - 110915Z
AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL GA ATTM IS BEING MONITORED FOR INTENSITY TRENDS. EVENTUALLY
STORMS MOVING EWD FROM WW 754 WILL NEED TO BE COVERED WITH A NEW
WATCH.

A COUPLE OF ISOLD STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF WW 754 IN
REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. AIRMASS ACROSS THIS REGION WAS VERY MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WHILE THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN THE ERN PORTION OF WW
754...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EWD MOVING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO EVENTUALLY LEND ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER MUCH OF ERN/SERN
GA...AND PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF SC. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL FAVOR ROTATING STORMS WITH WIND...HAIL...AND TORNADO
POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z.


..CARBIN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
33498349 34328205 33868109 32748135 32188245 31948339
31468477 32438492
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110728
SPC MCD 110728
MSZ000-ALZ000-GAZ000-SCZ000-110930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CST MON NOV 11 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...AL GA SC
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 754...

VALID 110728Z - 110930Z
VERY DANGEROUS SQUALL LINE WITH A NUMBER OF POTENTIALLY TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD ACROSS CNTRL AL AND NWRN GA
EARLY TODAY. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WERE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
OR ACROSS THE FOLLOWING NRN GA COUNTIES:
LUMPKIN...DAWSON...CHEROKEE...PAULDING...AND HARLSON
LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1KM SRH 250-300 M2/S2/ AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND FORCING AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...ACROSS ERN
PORTIONS OF WW 754 CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES. BASED ON
CURRENT LARGE SCALE MOTION OF THE LINE OF FORCING...THESE STORMS
SHOULD APPROACH THE SERN EDGE OF THE WATCH BETWEEN 0900-1000Z.
IN CNTRL AL...CONVECTION HAS BECOME A BIT MORE LINEAR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT BUT AIRMASS AND SHEAR AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WIND/HAIL ISOLD TORNADO THREAT. MOST
INTENSE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING ACROSS CHILTON COUNTY AND WILL MOVE
INTO COOSA AND AUTAUGA COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THIS
PORTION OF THE LINE WAS MOVING A BIT SLOWER THAN FARTHER NORTH
AND WILL MOVE TOWARD SECTIONS OF SOUTH-CNTRL AL BY 1000Z.

..CARBIN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
31668842 31649046 33338779 35028511 35038299 35028087
33338363 31648638
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110749
SPC MCD 110749
LAZ000-MSZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-110915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CST MON NOV 11 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 752...

VALID 110749Z - 110915Z
A NEW WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CNTRL GULF COAST REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

TRAILING PORTIONS OF INTENSE SQUALL LINE WERE SITUATED ACROSS THE
MS DELTA REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AS IT MOVES EWD INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG/ FROM LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO MOBILE BAY.
THE STORMS WITHIN THE LINE HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY ALIGNED WITH
STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL FLOW...AND VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS
THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. CONFLUENT/CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG
DIVERGENCE WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF POWERFUL UPPER JET
SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN THE TSTMS BEYOND CURRENT WATCH EXPIRATION
TIME AT 0900Z SO ANOTHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED TO THE EAST OF THIS
ACTIVITY PRIOR TO THAT TIME.


..CARBIN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
30849151 31639151 31698996 31768841 30968841 30178841
30108996 30049151
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110845 COR
SPC MCD 110845 COR
VAZ000-NCZ000-111045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 AM CST MON NOV 11 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...VA AND WRN NC
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 755...

VALID 110845Z - 111045Z
CHANGE CONCERNING LINE
WHILE COLD FRONT HAS YET TO CREST THE APPALACHIANS...PREFRONTAL
SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOWS APPEARS TO NOW BE FORMING TO THE
EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM AUGUSTA AND NELSON COUNTIES IN
WEST-CNTRL VA TO ROANOKE VA. AIRMASS EAST OF THE CONVECTION WAS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG
/SLIGHTLY GREATER VALUES OVER THE SRN PIEDMONT OF NC/. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS APPEARS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IN
ADDITION TO A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT...ISOLD TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN 0-1KM SRH VALUES TOPPING 300 M2/S2 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL VA WHERE BACKED SURFACE FLOW HAS AUGMENTED
INTENSIFYING SPEED SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.


..CARBIN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
34978199 34968322 36508185 38058049 38057920 38057791
36507933 34968075
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110841
SPC MCD 110841
VAZ000-NCZ000-111045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CST MON NOV 11 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...VA AND WRN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 755...

VALID 110841Z - 111045Z
WHILE COLD FRONT HAS YET TO CREST THE APPALACHIANS...PREFRONTAL
SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOWS APPEARS TO NOW BE FORMING TO THE
EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM AUGUSTA AND NELSON COUNTIES IN
WEST-CNTRL VA TO ROANOKE VA. AIRMASS EAST OF THE CONVECTION WAS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG
/SLIGHTLY GREATER VALUES OVER THE SRN PIEDMONT OF NC/. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS APPEARS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IN
ADDITION TO A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT...ISOLD TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN 0-1KM SRH VALUES TOPPING 300 M2/S2 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL VA WHERE BACKED SURFACE FLOW HAS AUGMENTED
INTENSIFYING SPEED SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.


..CARBIN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
34978199 34968322 36508185 38058049 38057920 38057791
36507933 34968075
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110945
SPC MCD 110945
ALZ000-GAZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-111115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CST MON NOV 11 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...SC...GA...AND ERN AL AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 757...

VALID 110945Z - 111115Z
STORM SCALE ENVIRONMENT FROM EXTREME ERN AL NEWD ACROSS
NORTH-CNTRL GA AND INTO NWRN SC REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL STORMS. PRONOUNCED SURFACE PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN VIGOROUS STORM UPDRAFTS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LOW LFC AND 0-1KM SRH VALUES ESTIMATED AROUND 300 M2/S2
OVER NRN GA INTO SC ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS
MAXIMIZED IN THESE AREAS.

ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING SLOWLY IN INTENSITY NORTH OF THE
TLH AREA AND WERE MOVING TOWARD SWRN GA. THIS ACTIVITY AGAIN
APPEARS LINKED TO BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT.
NONETHELESS...STORMS WERE MOVING TOWARD GREATER INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR AND MAY INCREASE FURTHER AS THEY MOVES INTO SWRN GA OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.


..CARBIN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
32098630 32088792 33498565 34918338 34928171 34918003
33498235 32088468
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110956
SPC MCD 110956
VAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-111100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST MON NOV 11 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...VA MD DE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 110956Z - 111100Z
A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/NRN VA
AND PARTS OF DE/MD WITHIN THE HOUR.

STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER NRN/CNTRL VA LAST HOUR
AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS STRONGER INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE IS REALIZED DUE TO SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MARGINAL MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG WAS BEING MORE THAN COMPENSATED
BY VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1KM SRH OVER 400 M2/S2/ AND
STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. THUS A DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST
THROUGH EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AND A WATCH WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.


..CARBIN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
37537884 38887774 39747669 39167506 36747586 36757735
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111102
SPC MCD 111102
NCZ000-111230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 AM CST MON NOV 11 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 111102Z - 111230Z
AREAS OF CNTRL NC MAY NEED TO BE COVERED BY A NEW TORNADO WATCH
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA INDICATES THAT MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
INCREASED OVER 100 J/KG TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF CNTRL NC OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
PRECEDES THE STRONG COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASING TSTM INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. INTENSE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WITHIN THE LINE
OF STORMS AND THUS A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

..CARBIN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
36567702 34317890 34917991 35178130 36318075 36497969
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111123
SPC MCD 111123
ALZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-111330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 AM CST MON NOV 11 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...TORNADO WATCH #756
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 756...

VALID 111123Z - 111330Z
TORNADO WATCH #756 WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU 11/13Z
EXPIRATION TIME...ALTHOUGH WW MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITHIN THE
HOUR.

MOST RECENT SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES LINE OF SEVERE
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO HEAD ENEWD THRU ERN LA....SRN MS...SRN
AL...INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 70S AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S CONTINUES TO
YIELD 50MB MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY REMAINS RATHER LINEAR...A DISCERNABLE BOWING SEGMENT
LOCATED IN CONECUH COUNTY ALABAMA IS SHOWING INDICATIONS OF
BULGING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. THIS PARTICULAR STORM
COULD YIELD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AS IT HEADS EWD INTO
COVINGTON COUNTY. RECENT VAD PROFILES FROM EGLIN AFB AND MOBILE
INDICATE VEERING TREND HEADING WWD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
THRU EXTREME SRN AL INTO SERN MS. THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE
ACTIVITY/THREAT OF TORNADOES COULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE ERN
HALF OF WW #756 IN REGION OF BETTER BACKED LOW-LVL FLOW AND
GREATER INSTABILITY.


..NADEN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
32018641 31998445 31018559 30038673 30048866 30039058
31018948 31998838
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111213
SPC MCD 111213
GAZ000-SCZ000-NCZ000-111415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2198
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0613 AM CST MON NOV 11 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...GA NC SC
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 757...759...

VALID 111213Z - 111415Z
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED LEWP/SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CONTINUES MOVING GENERALLY EWD ACROSS ERN GA...NWRN
SC...AND SRN NC AT THIS TIME. LARGE STRATIFORM RAIN REGION BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY WAS LIKELY HELPING TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NRN GA AND EXTREME
NWRN SC. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF ONGOING STORMS IN ERN GA AND CNTRL
SC SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A THREAT.

THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OF WW 757 AND INTO
WW 759 OVER THE NEXT HOUR.


..CARBIN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
32048468 32218586 34188289 34998119 34878014 33328060
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111248
SPC MCD 111248
DCZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-111445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST MON NOV 11 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...TORNADO WATCH # 758
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 758...

VALID 111248Z - 111445Z
TORNADO WATCH #58 REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 12/16Z WITH SCATTERED
SEVERE ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO AFFECT MAINLY CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.

RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT ALTHOUGH OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SEVERE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THE PAST HOUR OR
SO...CONVECTIVE SEGMENT IN SRN MD COULD HELP YIELD ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY FURTHER WSWWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S INTO THE LOW 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S...50MB MLCAPES ARE APPROACHING 500 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE ATTM...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR NEARING 50 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH VALUES AROUND 350-400 SUGGEST
A CONTINUED THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THRU
EXPIRATION...ESPECIALLY IN SRN HALF OF WW. IN ADDITION...SEVERE
ACTIVITY IN CNTRL/SCNTRL VA WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ENEWD AND
WILL ENTER WATCH WITHIN THE HOUR.


..NADEN.. 11/11/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
36637776 36637857 38137774 39647692 39647607 39647523
38137609 36637695
NNNN