** Aviation Weather Options **

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** DEFINITIONS **

[CPR]  = Combined probability (Prob_Field_1 x Prob_Field_2 x ... x
Prob_Field_N)
[MAX]  = Maximum from any member at each grid point
[MD]   = Median
[MDXN] = Median value contoured.  The dashed red line is the union of
all members at the lowest contour value plotted (i.e., where
at least one of the 22 members exceeds the value of the first
median contour).  The dashed blue line is the intersection of
all members at the lowest contour value plotted (i.e., where
all 22 members exceed the value value of the first median
contour).
[MIN]  = Minimum from any member at each grid point
[MN]   = Mean
[MNSD] = Mean and Standard Deviation
[PM]   = Probability Matched Mean Value
[PR]   = Probability (percentage of members meeting/exceeding some
condition)
[SP]   = Spaghetti

** SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON AVAILABLE FIELDS **

[MN]:Convective_Cloud_Top(Mean) -> The average maximum parcel top of all members
containing positive MUCAPE. The maximum parcel
elevation for each member is determined by
calculating the altitude where the negative
buoyancy above the equilibrium level equals the
positive buoyancy below the equilibrium level.
The effects of entrainment, etc. are parameterized
by simply scaling the maximum parcel altitude by
90% (based on the estimates of Bluestein et al.
1988).  The mean of the average wind in the lower
half of the convective cloud (between LCL and EL)
is also shown.

[MD]:Convective_Cloud_Top(Median) -> As above except the median value rather than
the mean value. The median of the average wind
in the lower half of the convective cloud
(between LCL and EL) is also shown.

[MAX]:Convective_Cloud_Top(Max_Any_Mem) -> The maximum parcel altitude from any member
containing positive MUCAPE. The convective
top altitude is described above.

[MIN]:Convective_Cloud_Top(Min_Any_Mem) -> The minimum parcel altitude from any member
containing positive MUCAPE. The convective
top altitude is described above.

[PR]:Calibrated_Prob_Tstm(03HR) -> 3hr calibrated probability of a thunderstorm within
~12 miles of a point. The calibration adjusts the
probabilistic value predicted by the SREF such that
forecasts should, over time, produce reliable
probabilistic forecasts.

[CPR]:Conditional_Prob_Top_____<=31KFT -> The conditional probability convective cloud
tops are below 31,000 feet MSL. Only members
with postive MUCAPE are considered -- hence
the probability is conditional by considering
only the members with MUCAPE (and not
necessarily all 22 members). This is an
been made to the probabilistic forecast such
that it is purely then percentage of members
meeting the specified threshold.

[CPR]:Conditional_Prob_Top_31KFT-37KFT -> As above, except the conditional probability
convective cloud tops are between 31,000 and
37,000 feet.

[CPR]:Conditional_Prob_Top_____>=37KFT -> As above, except the conditional probability
convective cloud tops exceed 37,000 feet.

[PR]:Prob_Top_____<=31KFT(Cond_X_Calib) -> This is the product of the conditional
probability convective cloud tops are below
31,000 feet and the calibrated probability
of a thunderstorm. The result is an estimate
of the total probability convective cloud tops
are below 31,000 feet.

[PR]:Prob_Top_31KFT-37KFT(Cond_X_Calib) -> As above except an estimate of the total
probability convective cloud tops are between
31,000 and 37,000 feet.

[PR]:Prob_Top_____>=37KFT(Cond_X_Calib) -> As above except an estimate of the total
probability convective cloud tops exceed
37,000 feet.

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