SPC Guidance
[PR]:3hr Calibrated Thunderstorm
[PR]:3hr Calibrated Severe Thunderstorm
[PR]:3hr Calibrated Conditional Severe Tstm
[PR]:3hr Dry Thunderstorm Potential
[PR]:3hr Calibrated Tstm >=100 CG Strikes
[PR]:12hr Calibrated Thunderstorm
[PR]:12hr Calibrated Severe Thunderstorm
[PR]:24hr Calibrated Thunderstorm
[PR]:24hr Calibrated Severe Thunderstorm
[PR]:3Hr New Snow on Roads (rel to normal)
[PR]:6Hr Calibrated New Snow on Roads
Overview
[MN]:500MB Height~Absolute_Vorticity
[MN]:500MB Height~Wind~Temp~Isotach
[MNSD]:500MB_Height
[SP]:500MB_Height_5460m
[SP]:500MB_Height_5580m
[SP]:500MB_Height_5700m
[SP]:500MB_Height_5820m
[MNSD]:500MB_Temp
[SP]:500MB_Temp_-15C
[SP]:500MB_Temp_-20C
[SP]:500MB_Temp_-25C
[MNSD]:700MB_Height
[MNSD]:700MB_Temp
[SP]:700MB_Temp_+10C
[SP]:700MB_Temp_+15C
[MN]:850MB_Height~Wind~Temp~Isotach
[MNSD]:850MB_Temp
[MN]:PMSL~Thickness~10m_Wind
[MNSD]:Sea_Level_Pres
[SP]:PMSL_Low_Centers
[SP]:PMSL_High_Centers
[MAX]:2m_Temp
[MN]:2m_Temp
[MN]:700-500_UVV~3hr_QPF
Moisture
[MN]:2M_Dewpoint(F)
[MDXN]:2M_DewPoint
[MNSD]:2_Meter_DewPoint
[PR]:2m_DewPoint_>=50F
[PR]:2m_DewPoint_>=55F
[PR]:2m_Dewpoint_>=60F
[PR]:2m_Dewpoint_>=65F
[PR]:2m_Dewpoint_>=70F
[SP]:2m_DewPoint_50F
[SP]:2m_DewPoint_55F
[SP]:2m_DewPoint_60F
[SP]:2m_DewPoint_65F
[SP]:2m_DewPoint_70F
[MN]:Precipitable_Water
[MDXN]:Precipitable_Water
[SP]:Precipitable_Water_1.0in
[SP]:Precipitable_Water_1.5in
[PR]:Mixed_Layer_LCL<=750m
[PR]:Mixed_Layer_LCL<=1000m
[PR]:Mixed_Layer_LCL<=1250m
[PR]:Mixed_Layer_LCL<=1500m
[MNSD]:850MB_DewPoint
[MNSD]:700MB_DewPoint
Instability
[MDXN]:Surface_L
[MN]:Surface_LI
[PR]:Surface_LI_<=0
[PR]:Surface_LI_<=-2
[PR]:Surface_LI_<=-4
[PR]:Surface_LI_<=-6
[MDXN]:Surface_CAPE
[PR]:Surface_Cape_>=250
[PR]:Surface_Cape_>=500
[PR]:Surface_Cape_>=1000
[PR]:Surface_Cape_>=2000
[PR]:Surface_Cape_>=3000
[MDXN]:Mixed_Layer_CAPE
[PR]:Mixed_Layer_CAPE_>=500
[PR]:Mixed_Layer_CAPE_>=1000
[PR]:Mixed_Layer_CAPE_>=2000
[PR]:Mixed_Layer_CAPE_>=3000
[MDXN]:Most_Unstable_CAPE
[MN]:MUCAPE_and_MULPL(MB_AGL)
[PR]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_>=50
[PR]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_>=100
[PR]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_>=250
[PR]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_>=500
[PR]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_>=1000
[PR]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_>=2000
[PR]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_>=3000
[SP]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_100
[SP]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_250
[SP]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_500
[SP]:Most_Unstable_CAPE_1000
[MDXN]:Downdraft_CAPE
[PR]:Downdraft_CAPE_>=1000
[PR]:Downdraft_CAPE_>=1500
[PR]:Downdraft_CAPE_>=2000
[PR]:Equilibrium_Level_Temp_<=-15C
[PR]:Equilibrium_Lvl_Temp_<=-20C
[PR]:Cloud_Physics_Thunder_Param_>=1
[PR]:700-500MB_Lapse_rate_>=7.0
[PR]:700-500MB_Lapse_rate_>=8.0
[PR]:MPV_900-650mb_<=0.05
Kinematic
[MN]:Vector_Wind_10m
[MN]:Vector_Wind_300mb
[MN]:Vector_Wind_500mb
[MN]:Vector_Wind_700mb
[MN]:Vector_Wind_850mb
[MNSD]:300MB_Wind_Speed
[MDXN]:300MB_Wind_Speed
[MNSD]:500MB_Wind_Speed
[MDXN]:500MB_Wind_Speed
[SP]:500MB_Wind_Speed_50kts
[SP]:500MB_Wind_Speed_70kts
[MDXN]:850MB_Wind_Speed
[MDXN]:0-6KM_Bulk_Shear
[PR]:0-6km_Bulk_Shear_>=30kts
[PR]:0-6km_Bulk_Shear_>=40kts
[PR]:0-6km_Bulk_Shear_>=50kts
[SP]:0-6KM_Bulk_Shear_40KTS
[MDXN]:Effective_Bulk_Shear
[PR]:Effective_Bulk_Shear_>=30kts
[PR]:Effective_Bulk_Shear_>=40kts
[PR]:Effective_Bulk_Shear_>=50kts
[SP]:Effective_Bulk_Shear_40KTS
[MDXN]:0-1KM_Helicity
[PR]:1KM_Helicity_>=50m2s-2
[PR]:1KM_Helicity_>=100m2s-2
[PR]:1KM_Helicity_>=150m2s-2
[SP]:0-1KM_Helicity_100m2s-2
[SP]:0-1KM_Helicity_200m2s-2
[MDXN]:0-3KM_Helicity
[PR]:3KM_Helicity_>=100m2s-2
[PR]:3KM_Helicity_>=200m2s-2
[PR]:3KM_Helicity_>=300m2s-2
[SP]:0-3KM_Helicity_150m2s-2
[SP]:0-3KM_Helicity_300m2s-2
Lift
[PR]:700mb_Omega_<=-3
[PR]:700mb_Omega_<=-6
[PR]:700mb_Omega_<=-9
[MN]:Frontogenesis_900-650mb_layer
[MN]:Frontogenesis_and_MPV_850mb
[MN]:Frontogenesis_and_MPV_700mb
[PR]:Front_900-650mb_layer>=0.1K
[PR]:Front_>=0.1_and_MPV_<=0.25_850mb
[PR]:Front_>=0.1_and_MPV_<=0.25_700mb
[PR]:Front_>=0.1_and_MPV_<=0.25_900-650mb
Precip
[MAX]:3hr_total_pcpn
[MDXN]:3hr_total_pcpn
[MN]:700-500_UVV~3hr_mean_QPF
[MD]:700-500_UVV~3hr_median_QPF
[PM]:700-500_UVV~3hr_prob_match_QPF
[PR]:3hr_total_pcpn_>=0.01in
[PR]:3hr_total_pcpn_>=0.05in
[PR]:3hr_total_pcpn_>=0.10in
[PR]:3hr_total_pcpn_>=0.25in
[PR]:3hr_total_pcpn_>=0.50in
[PR]:CPTP_>=1_and_3hr_pcpn_>=0.01in
[SP]:3hr_total_pcpn_0.01in
[SP]:3hr_total_pcpn_0.10in
[MDXN]:3hr_convective_pcpn
[PR]:3hr_convective_pcpn_>=_0.01in
[PR]:3hr_convective_pcpn_>=_0.05in
[PR]:3hr_convective_pcpn_>=_0.10in
[PR]:3hr_convective_pcpn_>=_0.25in
[PR]:3hr_convective_pcpn_>=_0.50in
[SP]:3hr_convective_pcpn_0.01in
[SP]:3hr_convective_pcpn_0.10in
[MAX]:6hr_total_pcpn
[PR]:6hr_total_pcpn_>=0.01in
[PR]:6hr_total_pcpn_>=0.10in
[PR]:6hr_total_pcpn_>=0.25in
[PR]:6hr_total_pcpn_>=0.50in
[PR]:6hr_total_pcpn_>=1.00in
[MAX]:12hr_total_pcpn
[PR]:12hr_total_pcpn_>=0.01in
[PR]:12hr_total_pcpn_>=0.10in
[PR]:12hr_total_pcpn_>=0.25in
[PR]:12hr_total_pcpn_>=0.50in
[PR]:12hr_total_pcpn_>=1.00in
[PR]:12hr_total_pcpn_>=2.00in
[PR]:12hr_total_pcpn_>=3.00in
[MAX]:24hr_total_pcpn
[PR]:24hr_total_pcpn_>=0.01in
[PR]:24hr_total_pcpn_>=0.10in
[PR]:24hr_total_pcpn_>=0.25in
[PR]:24hr_total_pcpn_>=0.50in
[PR]:24hr_total_pcpn_>=1.00in
[PR]:24hr_total_pcpn_>=2.00in
[PR]:24hr_total_pcpn_>=3.00in
Severe
[MDXN]:CravenBrooks_Significant_Severe
[PR]:CravenBrooks_Significant_Severe_>=10000
[PR]:CravenBrooks_Significant_Severe_>=20000
[PR]:CravenBrooks_Significant_Severe_>=40000
[PR]:CravenBrooks_Significant_Severe_>=60000
[SP]:CravenBrooks_Significant_Severe_10000
[SP]:CravenBrooks_Significant_Severe_20000
[PR]:MUCAPE>=500&0-6Shr>=30&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=500&0-6Shr>=40&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=1000&0-6Shr>=30&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=1000&0-6Shr>=40&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=2000&0-6Shr>=30&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=2000&0-6Shr>=40&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=500&EShear>=30&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=500&EShear>=40&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=1000&EShear>=30&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=1000&EShear>=40&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=2000&EShear>=30&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=2000&EShear>=40&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=3000&EShear>=20&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=1000&DCAPE>=1000&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=1000&DCAPE>=2000&C03I>=.01
[PR]:MUCAPE>=1000&DCAPELCL>=1000&C03I>=.01
[MN]:Supercell_Composite(0-500mb_bulk_shear)
[MN]:Supercell_Composite(effective_bulk_shear)
[MDXN]:Supercell_Composite_Parameter
[PR]:Supercell_Composite_Parameter_>=1
[PR]:Supercell_Composite_Parameter_>=3
[PR]:Supercell_Composite_Parameter_>=6
[SP]:Supercell_Composite_Parameter_1
[SP]:Supercell_Composite_Parameter_3
[PR]:Supercell_Parameter_>=1_&_pcpn_>=0.01
[MDXN]:Significant_Tornado_Parameter
[PR]:Significant_Tornado_Parameter_>=1
[PR]:Significant_Tornado_Parameter_>=3
[PR]:Significant_Tornado_Parameter_>=5
[PR]:Significant_Tornado_Ingredients
[SP]:Significant_Tornado_Parameter_1
[SP]:Significant_Tornado_Parameter_2
[MDXN]:Derecho_Parameter
[PR]:Derecho_Parameter_>=_1
[PR]:Derecho_Parameter_>=_3
[PR]:Derecho_Parameter_>=_5
[PR]:Derecho_Param_>=1_&_C03I_>=0.01
[SP]:Derecho_Parameter_1
Winter
[MNSD]:850MB_Temp
[SP]:850MB_Temp_0C_Isotherm
[PR]:850MB_Temp_<=-2C
[PR]:850MB_Temp_<=0C
[PR]:850MB_Temp_<=+2C
[MNSD]:700MB_Temp
[PR]:1000-500MB_Thickness_<=5280m
[PR]:1000-500MB_Thickness_<=5340m
[PR]:1000-500MB_Thickness_<=5400m
[MAX]:3hr_Snowfall(inches)
[MN]:3hr_Snowfall(inches)
[PM]:3hr_Snowfall(inches)
[MN]:6hr_Snowfall(inches)
[MN]:12hr_Snowfall(inches)
[MN]:Snowfall_Ratio(Snow:Liquid_Eqv)
[PR]:Snowfall_Rate_>=1in(perhr)
[PR]:Snowfall_Rate_>=2in(perhr)
[PR]:Snowfall_Rate_>=3in(perhr)
[PR]:Freezing_Rain_Rate_>=0.05_in(per3hr)
[PR]:Freezing_Rain_lasting_>=3hrs
[PR]:Rain_Change_to_Freezing_Rain
[PR]:Freezing_Rain_Change_to_Rain
[MDXN]:Dendritic_Growth_Zone_Depth(mb)
[PR]:Dendritic_Growth_Zone_Depth_>=50mb
[PR]:Dendritic_Growth_Zone_Depth_>=100mb
[MN]:Precipitation_Type_(NCEP_Algorithm)
[MN]:Precipitation_Type_(SPC_Czys_Algorithm)
[PR]:Probability_Rain(All_members)
[CPR]:Cond_Prob_Rain(Given_member_precips)
[PR]:Probability_Snow(All_members)
[CPR]:Cond_Prob_Snow(Given_member_precips)
[PR]:Probability_Ice_Pellets(All_members)
[CPR]:Cond_Prob_IP(Given_member_precips)
[PR]:Probability_Freezing_Rain(All_members)
[CPR]:Cond_Prob_ZR(Given_member_precips)
[PR]:Front_>=0.1_and_MPV_<=0.25_850mb
[PR]:Front_>=0.1_and_MPV_<=0.25_700mb
[PR]:Front_>=0.1_and_MPV_<=0.25_900-650mb
Fire
[MN]:2m_Temp
[PR]:2m_Temp_>=60F
[MAX]:2m_DewPoint
[MIN]:2m_DewPoint
[MDXN]:2m_DewPoint
[MN]:2m_DewPoint
[PR]:2m_DewPoint_<=15F
[PR]:2m_DewPoint_<=25F
[PR]:2m_DewPoint_<=35F
[PR]:2m_DewPoint_<=45F
[MIN]:2m_RH
[MNSD]:2m_RH
[PR]:RH_<=10%
[PR]:RH_<=15%
[PR]:RH_<=20%
[PR]:RH_<=25%
[PR]:RH_<=30%
[PR]:Tot_3hr_Pcpn_<=0.01in
[PR]:Tot_3hr_Pcpn_<=0.05in
[PR]:Tot_3hr_Pcpn_<=0.10in
[PR]:Tot_12hr_Pcpn_<=0.01in
[PR]:Tot_12hr_Pcpn_<=0.10in
[MAX]:10m_Wind_Speed
[MN]:10m_Wind_Speed
[PR]:10m_Wind_Speed_>=10mph
[PR]:10m_Wind_Speed_>=20mph
[PR]:10m_Wind_Speed_>=30mph
[MAX]:Fosberg_Fire_Wx_Index
[MDXN]:Fosberg_Fire_Wx_Index
[MN]:Fosberg_Fire_Wx_Index
[PR]:Fosberg_Fire_Wx_Index_>=50
[PR]:Fosberg_Fire_Wx_Index_>=60
[PR]:Fosberg_Fire_Wx_Index_>=70
[MDXN]:Haines_Index
[PR]:Haines_Index_>=5
[PR]:WSPD>=20&RH<=15
[PR]:WSPD>=15&RH<=15&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=15&RH<=20&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=15&RH<=25&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=15&RH<=30&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=20&RH<=10&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=20&RH<=15&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=20&RH<=20&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=20&RH<=30&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=20&RH<=35&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=30&RH<=10&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=30&RH<=15&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
[PR]:WSPD>=30&RH<=20&Temp>=60&P12I<=0.01
Aviation
[MAX]:Convective_Cloud_Top(CCT)
[MD]:Convective_Cloud_Top(CCT)
[MN]:Convective_Cloud_Top(CCT)
[PR]:Probability_CCT_<=31KFT
[PR]:Probability_CCT_31-37KFT
[PR]:Probability_CCT_>37KFT
[CPR]:Conditional_Prob_CCT_<=31KFT
[CPR]:Conditional_Prob_CCT_31-37KFT
[CPR]:Conditional_Prob_CCT_>37KFT
Links
SPC Home
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SPC SREF Overview
SREF Plumes Page
SPC SREF Online Case Studies
SPC Operational Forecasts
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EMC GEFS
EMC Model Forecasts
FRAME
SPEED
img/sec
DIR
Rock
DWELL
Dwell
sec
STEP
On/Off