ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 230619
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...
...Synopsis...
Early morning water-vapor imagery reveals an upper-level trough
translating eastward across northern Mexico towards the southern
High Plains. A lee trough currently in place along the High Plains
will consolidate through the day as the wave moves into the southern
Plains region. Strong westerly flow off the southern Rockies will
help mix a dryline eastward into west TX and introduce a broad swath
of dry and windy conditions across a region with dry fuels.
Additionally, lift and mid-level moisture associated with the main
upper-level trough will support the potential for a few dry
thunderstorms over portions of New Mexico.
...Southern High Plains and Four Corners...
Recent guidance continues to show a high probability for widespread
winds between 20-25 mph and relative humidity values in the single
digits to low teens in a post-dryline air mass across east NM and
west/southwest TX this afternoon. Mid-level winds will likely be
strongest over the Trans-Pecos region of southwest TX on the
southern/southwestern periphery of the main upper-level wave. Deep
boundary-layer mixing above 700 mb and a uni-directional wind
profile should facilitate efficient downward transport of 30-40 mph
winds by late afternoon.
Further to the northwest into central NM and northeast AZ, transient
and more localized critical conditions are possible. However,
scattered overnight precipitation (mainly across northeast AZ), as
well as lower confidence in mid-level wind support, have lowered
confidence in the potential for widespread/persistent critical
conditions.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Evening soundings across the Southwest show sufficient mid-level
moisture in place to support a few thunderstorms across central AZ
within the main upper-level trough. This moisture, along with cooler
temperatures aloft, are forecast to shift eastward into NM over the
next 24 hours. Despite very dry boundary-layer conditions, forecast
soundings suggest enough instability, along with weak synoptic lift
and localized orographic ascent, will be in place to support
isolated dry thunderstorms this afternoon over a region with dry
fuels.
..Moore.. 04/23/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 230658
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level wave is forecast to strengthen off the CA/OR coast
early this weekend. An associated upper-level jet will begin to nose
into the Great Basin by Saturday afternoon, which should support a
broad region of modest surface pressure falls across the
inter-mountain West. As a result, increasing pressure-gradient winds
across a region with dry fuels will lead to heightened fire weather
concerns.
...Great Basin and Southwest...
Surface winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph across a broad
swath from the southern Great Basin into portions of eastern NM.
Limited moisture return in the wake of Friday's system will help
relative humidity values remain in the 10-15% range across much of
the region. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with the approaching
wave will generally remain on the southern periphery of the Great
Basin from southern NV into northern AZ/southern UT. Forecast
soundings suggest boundary-layer mixing may be sufficient to allow
for wind gusts up to 35 mph across this region, though cloud cover
could limit mixing potential and the coverage of stronger winds.
Ensemble guidance supports this idea to some degree with pockets of
higher probabilities for sustained 20+ mph winds within this
corridor. This suggests that while areas of critical conditions are
possible, widespread elevated conditions appear more likely at this
time. Further to the east across NM, modest lee troughing and poor
mid/upper-level wind support should yield only elevated conditions.
..Moore.. 04/23/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
