ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 171651
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018
Valid 171700Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Given that the observed LAX-DAG pressure gradient is coming in
weaker than guidance has suggested as well as weak/weakening 850/700
mb flow, the elevated region has been removed. Only very localized
15+ mph sustained winds and gusts are expected for the remainder of
the period.
..Wendt.. 10/17/2018
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018/
...Synopsis...
An upper low over the Southwest early this morning will move slowly
northeastward across the Great Basin through late tonight. Surface
high pressure centered over the northern/central Rockies will weaken
some today, although a slightly enhanced surface pressure gradient
should be present over southern CA around both the beginning and end
of the period.
...Portions of Southern CA...
A small elevated area has been maintained with no changes for mainly
the mountains/foothills of Ventura and Los Angeles counties in
southern CA. The forecast surface pressure gradient from LAX-TPH and
LAX-DAG should be strong enough to support at least some offshore
flow for a few hours this morning and again late tonight, with
sustained northeasterly winds around 15-20 mph, and a few higher
gusts to 25-30 mph possible. A dry airmass will remain over this
region, and RH values of 10-20% will be common during the
afternoon/evening. Generally poor overnight RH recovery is expected.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 171837
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous
discussion for further details.
..Wendt.. 10/17/2018
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018/
...Synopsis...
An upper low centered over UT early Thursday morning will devolve
into an open trough as it becomes embedded in the mid/upper-level
westerlies across the northern/central Plains. Some gusty winds may
occur in conjunction with lowered RH values for mainly the
mountains/passes of southern CA as weak high pressure over the
Rockies supports a modest diurnal increase in the surface pressure
gradient across this region both Thursday morning and early Friday
morning. However, the lack of meaningful low to mid-level flow and
the marginal forecast pressure gradient both suggest elevated fire
weather conditions will probably remain too brief/isolated to
justify an elevated area for Day 2/Thursday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
