ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 261603
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
Valid 261700Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, with no changes made.
..Squitieri.. 03/26/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will prevail over much of the central CONUS with
troughs over the West/East Coasts today. An upper-level shortwave
trough will rotate along the periphery of the ridge over the
northern Rockies with enhanced mid-level flow of 45-60 knots over
the Great Basin. Lee troughing will extend southward from eastern
Montana into eastern Wyoming/Colorado resulting in warm/dry/breezy
conditions across eastern Colorado.
Elevated conditions are possible across southeast Colorado with
southwest winds 15-20 mph and RH values of 10-20% likely during the
afternoon. However, uncertainty regarding fuels, especially after
recent rainfall, precludes from introducing an elevated area across
southeast Colorado. Southerly winds of 15-25 mph with RH values of
8-20% are likely to develop across the southern Great Basin and into
northern Arizona, but fuels are not critical in this region.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 261939
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Much of the forecast remains on track. Portions of far southern
South Carolina into south-central Georgia and extreme northern
Florida continue to be monitored for the potential of an elevated
delineation. Latest model guidance continues to indicate up to 15
mph surface northeasterly winds and 15-30% RH for this region on
Wednesday afternoon. In addition, the latest accumulation of
precipitation was relatively light across portions of the area, with
.01-.10 inches observed in south-central Georgia, to over .25 inches
farther north. Nonetheless, more precipitation is possible prior to
Wednesday morning. The density and accumulation of forecast
precipitation will greatly influence the possibility of an elevated
delineation issuance in future outlooks, as confidence in how
forecast rainfall will impact the receptiveness of fine fuels
remains too low at this time.
Meanwhile, 15+ mph southwesterly winds and 15-25% RH are still
expected across much of the southern Great Basin/Four Corners area
during the late afternoon hours. However, the relatively marginal
receptiveness of fuels to fire spread preclude an elevated
delineation at this time.
..Squitieri.. 03/26/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue over much of the central CONUS
with a shortwave trough flattening the top of the ridge along the
US/Canadian border and troughs over both coasts on Wednesday. A
shortwave trough will move over the Southeast leading to dry
north-northeasterly flow across portions of the Carolinas, Georgia,
and northern Florida.
Northeasterly surface winds of 8-15 mph with RH values of 15-30% are
likely to develop Wednesday afternoon stretching southwestward from
central South Carolina into northern Florida. However, rainfall
Monday evening/night and forecast rainfall today across much of this
area may mitigate the fire threat. ERCs are above the 80th
percentile across this area, and if the forecast precipitation does
not materialize today, an elevated area may be added similar to the
40% probability of critical conditions on the current Day 3-8
outlook.
Dry/windy conditions will also develop across portions of the Great
Basin and Southwest as a mid-level jet overspreads the region with
elevated conditions possible across portions of southeast
Arizona/southern New Mexico.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
