Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 261603

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1103 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019

   Valid 261700Z - 271200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   The forecast remains on track, with no changes made.

   ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019/

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level ridging will prevail over much of the central CONUS with
   troughs over the West/East Coasts today. An upper-level shortwave
   trough will rotate along the periphery of the ridge over the
   northern Rockies with enhanced mid-level flow of 45-60 knots over
   the Great Basin. Lee troughing will extend southward from eastern
   Montana into eastern Wyoming/Colorado resulting in warm/dry/breezy
   conditions across eastern Colorado.

   Elevated conditions are possible across southeast Colorado with
   southwest winds 15-20 mph and RH values of 10-20% likely during the
   afternoon. However, uncertainty regarding fuels, especially after
   recent rainfall, precludes from introducing an elevated area across
   southeast Colorado. Southerly winds of 15-25 mph with RH values of
   8-20% are likely to develop across the southern Great Basin and into
   northern Arizona, but fuels are not critical in this region.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 261939

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0239 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   Much of the forecast remains on track. Portions of far southern
   South Carolina into south-central Georgia and extreme northern
   Florida continue to be monitored for the potential of an elevated
   delineation. Latest model guidance continues to indicate up to 15
   mph surface northeasterly winds and 15-30% RH for this region on
   Wednesday afternoon. In addition, the latest accumulation of
   precipitation was relatively light across portions of the area, with
   .01-.10 inches observed in south-central Georgia, to over .25 inches
   farther north. Nonetheless, more precipitation is possible prior to
   Wednesday morning. The density and accumulation of forecast
   precipitation will greatly influence the possibility of an elevated
   delineation issuance in future outlooks, as confidence in how
   forecast rainfall will impact the receptiveness of fine fuels
   remains too low at this time.

   Meanwhile, 15+ mph southwesterly winds and 15-25% RH are still
   expected across much of the southern Great Basin/Four Corners area
   during the late afternoon hours. However, the relatively marginal
   receptiveness of fuels to fire spread preclude an elevated
   delineation at this time.

   ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019/

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level ridging will continue over much of the central CONUS
   with a shortwave trough flattening the top of the ridge along the
   US/Canadian border and troughs over both coasts on Wednesday. A
   shortwave trough will move over the Southeast leading to dry
   north-northeasterly flow across portions of the Carolinas, Georgia,
   and northern Florida. 

   Northeasterly surface winds of 8-15 mph with RH values of 15-30% are
   likely to develop Wednesday afternoon stretching southwestward from
   central South Carolina into northern Florida. However, rainfall
   Monday evening/night and forecast rainfall today across much of this
   area may mitigate the fire threat. ERCs are above the 80th
   percentile across this area, and if the forecast precipitation does
   not materialize today, an elevated area may be added similar to the
   40% probability of critical conditions on the current Day 3-8
   outlook.

   Dry/windy conditions will also develop across portions of the Great
   Basin and Southwest as a mid-level jet overspreads the region with
   elevated conditions possible across portions of southeast
   Arizona/southern New Mexico.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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