Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 171651

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1151 AM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018

   Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   Given that the observed LAX-DAG pressure gradient is coming in
   weaker than guidance has suggested as well as weak/weakening 850/700
   mb flow, the elevated region has been removed. Only very localized
   15+ mph sustained winds and gusts are expected for the remainder of
   the period.

   ..Wendt.. 10/17/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper low over the Southwest early this morning will move slowly
   northeastward across the Great Basin through late tonight. Surface
   high pressure centered over the northern/central Rockies will weaken
   some today, although a slightly enhanced surface pressure gradient
   should be present over southern CA around both the beginning and end
   of the period.

   ...Portions of Southern CA...
   A small elevated area has been maintained with no changes for mainly
   the mountains/foothills of Ventura and Los Angeles counties in
   southern CA. The forecast surface pressure gradient from LAX-TPH and
   LAX-DAG should be strong enough to support at least some offshore
   flow for a few hours this morning and again late tonight, with
   sustained northeasterly winds around 15-20 mph, and a few higher
   gusts to 25-30 mph possible. A dry airmass will remain over this
   region, and RH values of 10-20% will be common during the
   afternoon/evening. Generally poor overnight RH recovery is expected.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 171837

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0137 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No changes to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous
   discussion for further details.

   ..Wendt.. 10/17/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper low centered over UT early Thursday morning will devolve
   into an open trough as it becomes embedded in the mid/upper-level
   westerlies across the northern/central Plains. Some gusty winds may
   occur in conjunction with lowered RH values for mainly the
   mountains/passes of southern CA as weak high pressure over the
   Rockies supports a modest diurnal increase in the surface pressure
   gradient across this region both Thursday morning and early Friday
   morning. However, the lack of meaningful low to mid-level flow and
   the marginal forecast pressure gradient both suggest elevated fire
   weather conditions will probably remain too brief/isolated to
   justify an elevated area for Day 2/Thursday.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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