(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 140843
SPC AC 140843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential will remain low during the Day 4-8 period. Several
upper shortwave trough migrating through larger-scale flow will
maintain general broad, upper troughing over the CONUS. At the
surface, a cold front will drop southeast across the Gulf of Mexico
on Day 4/Sat. Thunderstorms will be possible across FL on Saturday
and into Day 5/Sun, but heavy rain will be more of a concern than
severe potential given elevated convection and training
precipitation. High pressure will settle behind the cold front and
persist for much of the period east of the Rockies. This will cut
off any Gulf return flow, and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture
will result in stable conditions.
..Leitman.. 04/14/2021
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