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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 21, 2023
Updated: Thu Sep 21 09:02:03 UTC 2023
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Sun, Sep 24, 2023 - Mon, Sep 25, 2023 D7Wed, Sep 27, 2023 - Thu, Sep 28, 2023
D5Mon, Sep 25, 2023 - Tue, Sep 26, 2023 D8Thu, Sep 28, 2023 - Fri, Sep 29, 2023
D6Tue, Sep 26, 2023 - Wed, Sep 27, 2023 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 210900
   SPC AC 210900

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

   Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

   ...D4/Sunday: Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region...
   An occluding cyclone is forecast to weaken over the northern Plains
   on Sunday, with any threat for organized severe storms likely to be
   confined to parts of the southern Plains and ArkLaTex region,
   along/south of a cold front. Extended-range guidance generally
   suggests that a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move
   from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains on Sunday, though
   considerable spread remains regarding the track and intensity of
   this feature, and also regarding the cold-frontal position by Sunday
   afternoon. The shortwave trough may be favorably timed to support
   vigorous storm development Sunday afternoon/evening near and south
   of the cold front, with some severe threat potentially evolving
   across some portion of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region.

   ...D5/Monday - D8/Thursday...
   A few strong storms may be possible early next week across parts of
   TX, though weakening deep-layer flow/shear should keep any severe
   threat relatively isolated. Another mid/upper-level trough may
   induce cyclogenesis across some portion of the High Plains by mid
   week, though initial moisture return will tend to be somewhat
   limited, and predictability remains low regarding any notable
   increase in severe potential in association with this system.

   ..Dean.. 09/21/2023


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: September 21, 2023
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