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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 22, 2019
Updated: Fri Nov 22 09:36:03 UTC 2019
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Mon, Nov 25, 2019 - Tue, Nov 26, 2019 D7Thu, Nov 28, 2019 - Fri, Nov 29, 2019
D5Tue, Nov 26, 2019 - Wed, Nov 27, 2019 D8Fri, Nov 29, 2019 - Sat, Nov 30, 2019
D6Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - Thu, Nov 28, 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 220934
   SPC AC 220934

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

   Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Monday (day 4) model consensus is that partially modified Gulf air
   will begin returning through eastern TX and the lower MS Valley, but
   the resulting instability will likely be insufficient for a severe
   threat.

   Tuesday (day 5) Within a broad cyclonic upper flow regime, a
   shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it emerges over the
   southern and central Plains. This feature will induce a lee cyclone
   that will move through OK and the middle MS Valley during the day
   before reaching the Great Lakes late Tuesday night. Moisture return
   and destabilization ahead of the trailing cold front might become
   sufficient for a severe threat within the strongly sheared
   environment from east TX into the lower MS Valley. The ECMWF
   shortwave trough is a bit slower and slightly deeper than the GFS
   indicating somewhat greater severe potential. However, ensemble 500
   mb spreads increase substantially during this period, suggesting low
   predictability for now.

   ..Dial.. 11/22/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: November 22, 2019
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