(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 130856
SPC AC 130856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Little change to the upper pattern should occur through at least the
middle of next week, with a large-scale upper ridge remaining over
much of the western/central CONUS, and an upper trough over the
eastern states. Organized severe thunderstorm potential also appears
relatively low, as modest mid-level winds should generally limit
deep-layer shear. From Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, the
best potential for occasionally strong convection should focus along
and south of a front that is forecast to slowly sag southward across
parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Southeast.
Modest mid-level northwesterly winds may exist between the upper
ridge and trough across portions of these regions. Still, deep-layer
shear appears too weak to support more than an isolated threat for
marginally severe thunderstorms each afternoon.
The potential for the upper ridge to be suppressed by a weak
mid-level perturbation from Day 7/Friday into next weekend remains
unclear. If this evolution occurs and an upper trough can develop
across parts of the north-central states towards the Great Lakes
vicinity, then some severe risk may ultimately develop across parts
of the central/eastern CONUS in this time frame. However, organized
severe thunderstorm chances still appear rather low, as a fair
amount of uncertainty remains regarding the possible upper ridge
breakdown.
..Gleason.. 08/13/2022
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