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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 6, 2023
Updated: Mon Feb 6 10:01:02 UTC 2023
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Thu, Feb 09, 2023 - Fri, Feb 10, 2023 D7Sun, Feb 12, 2023 - Mon, Feb 13, 2023
D5Fri, Feb 10, 2023 - Sat, Feb 11, 2023 D8Mon, Feb 13, 2023 - Tue, Feb 14, 2023
D6Sat, Feb 11, 2023 - Sun, Feb 12, 2023 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 060958
   SPC AC 060958

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023

   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

   ...Day 4/Thursday...
   While instability details are uncertain, some severe potential could
   persist into the coastal Southeast on Thursday, possibly including
   portions of southern Alabama, northern Florida into Georgia. This
   would be near/ahead of the cold front and residual upstream
   convection in the presence of strong vertical shear. The scenario
   does appear to warrant 15% severe probabilities at this juncture.

   ...Day 5/Friday...
   As a secondary/prominent upper trough approaches the region, some
   severe storm potential may exist from parts of Florida in the
   Carolinas, and possibly other parts of the Mid-Atlantic as a
   modestly moist air mass develops northward ahead of a cold front. 

   ...Days 6-7 Saturday/Sunday...
   Little if any severe-weather potential is currently expected.

   ...Day 8/Monday...
   Related to a low-latitude upper-level trough, very early indications
   are that the severe potential could begin to increase by around
   Monday across the southern tier of the CONUS, initially across parts
   of Texas.

   ..Guyer.. 02/06/2023


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: February 06, 2023
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