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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 9, 2023
Updated: Fri Jun 9 08:51:03 UTC 2023
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Mon, Jun 12, 2023 - Tue, Jun 13, 2023 D7Thu, Jun 15, 2023 - Fri, Jun 16, 2023
D5Tue, Jun 13, 2023 - Wed, Jun 14, 2023 D8Fri, Jun 16, 2023 - Sat, Jun 17, 2023
D6Wed, Jun 14, 2023 - Thu, Jun 15, 2023 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 090849
   SPC AC 090849

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 AM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023

   Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

   Particularly in the northern mid-latitudes, models suggest that
   mid/upper flow may remain more progressive across the Pacific into
   western North America than east of the Mississippi Valley into the
   Atlantic during this period.  Within the latter regime, it appears
   that a couple of significant quasi-stationary to slow moving
   mid-level lows will be maintained, including only a gradual
   redevelopment of the trailing low east-northeast of the Great Lakes
   through the coming work week.

   Farther west, a weakening mid-level low over the southern Great
   Basin at the outset of the period is forecast to continuing
   weakening farther inland.  However, models suggest that a lingering
   belt of seasonably strong mid-level flow may propagate around the
   crest of mean mid-level ridging across and east of the southern
   Rockies, while flow strengthens similarly on the southern periphery
   of mean mid-level troughing across the Southeast.  Associated
   strengthening of deep-layer shear along a quasi-stationary frontal
   zone may become conducive to the evolution of organized 
   thunderstorm clusters on a daily basis.  However, the location and
   extent of any associated severe weather hazards likely will remain
   largely governed by sub-synoptic/mesoscale developments with poor
   predictability in the extended time frame.

   ..Kerr.. 06/09/2023


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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