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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 24, 2022
Updated: Tue May 24 08:22:02 UTC 2022
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Fri, May 27, 2022 - Sat, May 28, 2022 D7Mon, May 30, 2022 - Tue, May 31, 2022
D5Sat, May 28, 2022 - Sun, May 29, 2022 D8Tue, May 31, 2022 - Wed, Jun 01, 2022
D6Sun, May 29, 2022 - Mon, May 30, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 240820
   SPC AC 240820

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0320 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

   Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   The extended period will be characterized by low predictability.  On
   Friday (day 4), a mid-level trough is forecast to move from the OH
   Valley to the central/southern Appalachians.  A cold front will
   focus thunderstorms over the eastern U.S. and a risk for damaging
   gusts will likely accompany the most intense thunderstorms.  The
   spatial uncertainty and magnitude of the wind-damage risk preclude
   an areal highlight at this time.  By this weekend into early next
   week, a mid-level trough will develop over parts of the West while a
   ridge is projected to be centered over the southern Appalachians. 
   Models currently indicate the potential for severe thunderstorms to
   be lowest on Saturday (day 5) with some increasing potential by
   Sunday through Tuesday for parts of the central-northern Great
   Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest.

   ..Smith.. 05/24/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: May 24, 2022
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