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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 20, 2024
Updated: Sat Apr 20 09:01:02 UTC 2024
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Tue, Apr 23, 2024 - Wed, Apr 24, 2024 D7Fri, Apr 26, 2024 - Sat, Apr 27, 2024
D5Wed, Apr 24, 2024 - Thu, Apr 25, 2024 D8Sat, Apr 27, 2024 - Sun, Apr 28, 2024
D6Thu, Apr 25, 2024 - Fri, Apr 26, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 200859
   SPC AC 200859

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

   Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

   ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
   An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the
   Intermountain West on Tuesday into the Rockies on Wednesday. At the
   surface, a large high pressure area is forecast to move across the
   southeastern U.S. In the wake of the high, moisture return will
   likely take place across the southern and central Plains on
   Wednesday and Wednesday night. It appears that elevated
   thunderstorms may develop on the northern edge of the moist sector
   as the low-level jet strengthens. These storms could be associated
   with a severe threat, having a potential for large hail and damaging
   wind gusts. However, predictability remains low concerning any
   specific scenario, mainly due to the presence of the upper-level

   ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
   By Thursday, the models have a moist airmass in place across most of
   the southern and central Plains. The upper-level ridge is forecast
   to move eastward into the Mississippi Valley, as an upper-level
   trough moves into the Desert Southwest. As this feature approaches
   the central U.S., isolated to scattered strong to severe
   thunderstorms will be possible to the east of a dryline from
   northwest Texas northward into west-central Kansas. The primary
   threats would be isolated large hail and wind damage, although an
   isolated tornado threat would also be possible.

   On Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
   central Plains. Model forecasts suggest that a moist and unstable
   airmass will be in place from the southern and central Plains
   extending into the Upper Midwest. This would be the favored area for
   scattered severe storms Friday afternoon and evening. On Saturday,
   some model solutions suggest a large-scale upper-level trough will
   develop over the southwestern U.S., with southwest mid-level flow
   remaining in place over much of the south-central U.S. Although
   spread among the solutions is somewhat large by Saturday, the models
   suggest a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across parts
   of the south-central states. Storms that develop within this airmass
   would have potential to be severe. However, predictability at this
   range remains too low to outlook a threat area.

   ..Broyles.. 04/20/2024


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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