(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230842
SPC AC 230842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Upper-level ridging will likely traverse the Plains on D4/Tuesday,
ahead of an upper trough expected to move into the Plains on
D6/Thursday or D7/Friday. Moisture return is anticipated ahead of
this upper trough, setting the stage for potential severe
thunderstorms once the trough moves into the Plains. Run-to-run and
model-to-model variability is less in the most recent runs than
previous runs, but still exhibits enough variance with the evolution
of the upper trough (particularly in its speed and strength) to
limit forecast confidence. Given the limited forecast confidence, no
areas will be delineated with this outlook. However, this severe
potential bears watching closely and outlook areas may be needed in
subsequent forecasts if forecast confidence increases.
..Mosier.. 03/23/2019
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