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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 17, 2019
Updated: Wed Jul 17 07:36:02 UTC 2019
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
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D4Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - Sun, Jul 21, 2019 D7Tue, Jul 23, 2019 - Wed, Jul 24, 2019
D5Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - Mon, Jul 22, 2019 D8Wed, Jul 24, 2019 - Thu, Jul 25, 2019
D6Mon, Jul 22, 2019 - Tue, Jul 23, 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 170734
   SPC AC 170734

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0234 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

   Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

   Medium-range models suggest large-scale ridging will dominate the
   CONUS until this weekend when a significant short-wave trough may
   dig southeast across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley region. If
   models are correct and the ridge builds over the Rockies, a
   substantial cold front should be shunted across the Plains-Mid MS/OH
   Valley which would likely serve as the focus for convection.
   Northwest deep-layer flow along the eastern plume of steeper lapse
   rates would seem supportive of robust convection. However, too much
   uncertainty currently exists to introduce 15%.

   ..Darrow.. 07/17/2019


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: July 17, 2019
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