(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240820
SPC AC 240820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The extended period will be characterized by low predictability. On
Friday (day 4), a mid-level trough is forecast to move from the OH
Valley to the central/southern Appalachians. A cold front will
focus thunderstorms over the eastern U.S. and a risk for damaging
gusts will likely accompany the most intense thunderstorms. The
spatial uncertainty and magnitude of the wind-damage risk preclude
an areal highlight at this time. By this weekend into early next
week, a mid-level trough will develop over parts of the West while a
ridge is projected to be centered over the southern Appalachians.
Models currently indicate the potential for severe thunderstorms to
be lowest on Saturday (day 5) with some increasing potential by
Sunday through Tuesday for parts of the central-northern Great
Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest.
..Smith.. 05/24/2022
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