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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 16, 2018
Updated: Tue Oct 16 05:54:03 UTC 2018
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Fri, Oct 19, 2018 - Sat, Oct 20, 2018 D7Mon, Oct 22, 2018 - Tue, Oct 23, 2018
D5Sat, Oct 20, 2018 - Sun, Oct 21, 2018 D8Tue, Oct 23, 2018 - Wed, Oct 24, 2018
D6Sun, Oct 21, 2018 - Mon, Oct 22, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 160552
   SPC AC 160552

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1252 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

   Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

   For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, large-scale upper troughs are
   forecast to amplify across the northeastern CONUS, thus keeping
   stable conditions in place for most locations. Once exception may be
   along the coastal Carolinas and Georgia on Sat/D5, where mid 60s F
   dewpoints are forecast to briefly spread north ahead of a cold front
   associated with the first major trough amplification across the
   Great Lakes. Forecast soundings reveal very small MUCAPE values,
   thus severe weather appears unlikely. However, strong mean westerly
   winds could result in locally gusty winds with any convection
   related to the frontal passage.

   Elsewhere, cool temperatures aloft are forecast to persist across
   the Southwest, with a weak upper low drifting across northern Baja
   CA. This will likely result in scattered daytime storms near the
   Mogollon Rim from Sat/D5 into Mon/D7. Weak shear will preclude any
   severe threat, but steep lapse rates aloft may support small hail.

   ..Jewell.. 10/16/2018


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: October 16, 2018
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