(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 170734
SPC AC 170734
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
Medium-range models suggest large-scale ridging will dominate the
CONUS until this weekend when a significant short-wave trough may
dig southeast across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley region. If
models are correct and the ridge builds over the Rockies, a
substantial cold front should be shunted across the Plains-Mid MS/OH
Valley which would likely serve as the focus for convection.
Northwest deep-layer flow along the eastern plume of steeper lapse
rates would seem supportive of robust convection. However, too much
uncertainty currently exists to introduce 15%.
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