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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 14, 2021
Updated: Wed Apr 14 08:45:03 UTC 2021
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Sat, Apr 17, 2021 - Sun, Apr 18, 2021 D7Tue, Apr 20, 2021 - Wed, Apr 21, 2021
D5Sun, Apr 18, 2021 - Mon, Apr 19, 2021 D8Wed, Apr 21, 2021 - Thu, Apr 22, 2021
D6Mon, Apr 19, 2021 - Tue, Apr 20, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 140843
   SPC AC 140843

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

   Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

   Severe potential will remain low during the Day 4-8 period. Several
   upper shortwave trough migrating through larger-scale flow will
   maintain general broad, upper troughing over the CONUS. At the
   surface, a cold front will drop southeast across the Gulf of Mexico
   on Day 4/Sat. Thunderstorms will be possible across FL on Saturday
   and into Day 5/Sun, but heavy rain will be more of a concern than
   severe potential given elevated convection and training
   precipitation. High pressure will settle behind the cold front and
   persist for much of the period east of the Rockies. This will cut
   off any Gulf return flow, and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture
   will result in stable conditions.

   ..Leitman.. 04/14/2021


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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