(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030817
SPC AC 030817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2020
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A seemingly slow-to-evolve upper-air pattern is forecast during the
extended period. A mid-level low will move very little during the
early part of the period and likely remain over CA. To the east, a
mid-level ridge over the southern Great Plains and MS Valley is
forecast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
Monday-Wednesday across portions of this broader area. Mesoscale
details concerning timing/placement of storms, some of which may be
strong to severe, are too uncertain at this time. By late in the
extended period, it appears the cut-off mid-level low will gradually
move east into the Desert Southwest/southern Rockies. A risk for
severe will likely materialize ahead of this feature over the
southern Great Plains, but confidence is low regarding timing and
possible placement of a severe area.
..Smith.. 04/03/2020
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