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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 25, 2022
Updated: Sat Jun 25 08:46:02 UTC 2022
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Tue, Jun 28, 2022 - Wed, Jun 29, 2022 D7Fri, Jul 01, 2022 - Sat, Jul 02, 2022
D5Wed, Jun 29, 2022 - Thu, Jun 30, 2022 D8Sat, Jul 02, 2022 - Sun, Jul 03, 2022
D6Thu, Jun 30, 2022 - Fri, Jul 01, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 250844
   SPC AC 250844

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

   Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

   Perhaps most notable during this period, models indicate that a deep
   mid-level low, emerging from the northeastern Canadian Arctic
   latitudes, will gradually turn southeastward and eastward across the
   Hudson Bay vicinity.  As this occurs, it appears that mid-level flow
   will trend broadly cyclonic across the Upper Midwest/upper Great
   Lakes region through the Northeast late next week through the
   weekend, in the wake of low amplitude ridging building across the
   region by mid week.  Otherwise, a general split flow regime may
   linger upstream, around persistent mid-level ridging across the
   western Canadian Provinces and mid-level troughing to the south,
   generally offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast.  At the same time,
   mid-level ridging may be maintained across much of the central and
   southern tier of the U.S., near and east of the Rockies.

   In association with this regime, it appears that a plume of warm and
   capping elevated mixed-layer air will advect east of the northern
   Rockies toward the Upper Midwest during the early to middle portion
   of next week, before becoming cut off and suppressed.  This likely
   will precede the remnants of an initially vigorous short wave
   impulse migrating inland of the Pacific Northwest coast, before
   weakening within a confluent regime across the Canadian/northern
   U.S. Rockies. Still, models suggest that this impulse might be
   accompanied by weak to  modest cyclogenesis across the southern
   Canadian Prairies and adjacent northern U.S. Great Plains, which
   seems to offer the best potential for organized thunderstorm
   development (in terms of shear and forcing for ascent) during this
   period.  At this point, the extent of destabilization and degree of
   inhibition remain unclear, as low-level moisture return from the
   lower latitudes might remain rather modest.

   ..Kerr.. 06/25/2022


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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