(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 170852
SPC AC 170852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Sunday/D4, an amplified upper trough will quickly eject
northeastward across the Mid Atlantic, with a surface low deepening
as it develops into the Canadian Maritimes. Early day thunderstorms
are possible around the Outer Banks of NC, but instability and
threat duration will be quite small.
Dry air with high pressure will build across the middle and eastern
parts of the CONUS behind this system, and in advance of the next
shortwave trough which will affect the Southeast on Tue/D6 into
Wed/D7. This system will have very little moisture to work with in
terms of instability, and any severe threat along the Gulf Coast
appears low at this time. A reinforcing surge of dry air will then
result in low thunderstorm chances across the CONUS through the
Thu/D8 period.
..Jewell.. 01/17/2019
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