(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 160552
SPC AC 160552
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, large-scale upper troughs are
forecast to amplify across the northeastern CONUS, thus keeping
stable conditions in place for most locations. Once exception may be
along the coastal Carolinas and Georgia on Sat/D5, where mid 60s F
dewpoints are forecast to briefly spread north ahead of a cold front
associated with the first major trough amplification across the
Great Lakes. Forecast soundings reveal very small MUCAPE values,
thus severe weather appears unlikely. However, strong mean westerly
winds could result in locally gusty winds with any convection
related to the frontal passage.
Elsewhere, cool temperatures aloft are forecast to persist across
the Southwest, with a weak upper low drifting across northern Baja
CA. This will likely result in scattered daytime storms near the
Mogollon Rim from Sat/D5 into Mon/D7. Weak shear will preclude any
severe threat, but steep lapse rates aloft may support small hail.
..Jewell.. 10/16/2018
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