(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060958
SPC AC 060958
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Thursday...
While instability details are uncertain, some severe potential could
persist into the coastal Southeast on Thursday, possibly including
portions of southern Alabama, northern Florida into Georgia. This
would be near/ahead of the cold front and residual upstream
convection in the presence of strong vertical shear. The scenario
does appear to warrant 15% severe probabilities at this juncture.
...Day 5/Friday...
As a secondary/prominent upper trough approaches the region, some
severe storm potential may exist from parts of Florida in the
Carolinas, and possibly other parts of the Mid-Atlantic as a
modestly moist air mass develops northward ahead of a cold front.
...Days 6-7 Saturday/Sunday...
Little if any severe-weather potential is currently expected.
...Day 8/Monday...
Related to a low-latitude upper-level trough, very early indications
are that the severe potential could begin to increase by around
Monday across the southern tier of the CONUS, initially across parts
of Texas.
..Guyer.. 02/06/2023
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