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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 23, 2024
Updated: Tue Jul 23 08:48:02 UTC 2024
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Fri, Jul 26, 2024 - Sat, Jul 27, 2024 D7Mon, Jul 29, 2024 - Tue, Jul 30, 2024
D5Sat, Jul 27, 2024 - Sun, Jul 28, 2024 D8Tue, Jul 30, 2024 - Wed, Jul 31, 2024
D6Sun, Jul 28, 2024 - Mon, Jul 29, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 230846
   SPC AC 230846

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

   Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

   Upper ridging will spread across parts of the Plains and eastern
   states, while the subtropical high develops westward over the
   southern tier of the U.S. during the Day 4-8/Fri-Tue period. This
   will suppress severe thunderstorm potential for much of the CONUS.
   The exception will be a potentially more active period for parts of
   the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest due to a series of upper
   shortwave troughs migrating across the Canadian Prairies and parts
   of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through the forecast period. 

   Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes and periodic surface low
   development over the northern High Plains will maintain a baroclinic
   zone over the Upper Midwest. As a result, southerly low-level flow
   will keep a seasonally moist airmass in place across the eastern
   Dakotas and Mid-MO Valley east to the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Some
   severe thunderstorm potential could develop around Day 4 Fri as the
   first upper shortwave trough moves across the Canadian Prairies.
   However, stronger vertical shear and large scale ascent will be
   focused north of the international border. Another weaker, but
   further south shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains
   vicinity on Day 6/Sun before a somewhat stronger wave migrates
   through westerly flow toward Day 8/Tue. 

   While various forecast guidance generally depicts this more
   progressive northern stream pattern, details in timing of each wave,
   as well as differences in the strength of the central U.S. upper
   ridge/subtropical high vary greatly. As a result, confidence is too
   low to include 15 percent probabilities at this time.

   ..Leitman.. 07/23/2024


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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