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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 17, 2019
Updated: Thu Jan 17 08:54:02 UTC 2019
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Sun, Jan 20, 2019 - Mon, Jan 21, 2019 D7Wed, Jan 23, 2019 - Thu, Jan 24, 2019
D5Mon, Jan 21, 2019 - Tue, Jan 22, 2019 D8Thu, Jan 24, 2019 - Fri, Jan 25, 2019
D6Tue, Jan 22, 2019 - Wed, Jan 23, 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 170852
   SPC AC 170852

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

   Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

   On Sunday/D4, an amplified upper trough will quickly eject
   northeastward across the Mid Atlantic, with a surface low deepening
   as it develops into the Canadian Maritimes. Early day thunderstorms
   are possible around the Outer Banks of NC, but instability and
   threat duration will be quite small.

   Dry air with high pressure will build across the middle and eastern
   parts of the CONUS behind this system, and in advance of the next
   shortwave trough which will affect the Southeast on Tue/D6 into
   Wed/D7. This system will have very little moisture to work with in
   terms of instability, and any severe threat along the Gulf Coast
   appears low at this time. A reinforcing surge of dry air will then
   result in low thunderstorm chances across the CONUS through the
   Thu/D8 period.

   ..Jewell.. 01/17/2019


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: January 17, 2019
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