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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 23, 2019
Updated: Sat Mar 23 08:44:02 UTC 2019
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Tue, Mar 26, 2019 - Wed, Mar 27, 2019 D7Fri, Mar 29, 2019 - Sat, Mar 30, 2019
D5Wed, Mar 27, 2019 - Thu, Mar 28, 2019 D8Sat, Mar 30, 2019 - Sun, Mar 31, 2019
D6Thu, Mar 28, 2019 - Fri, Mar 29, 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 230842
   SPC AC 230842

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

   Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

   Upper-level ridging will likely traverse the Plains on D4/Tuesday,
   ahead of an upper trough expected to move into the Plains on
   D6/Thursday or D7/Friday. Moisture return is anticipated ahead of
   this upper trough, setting the stage for potential severe
   thunderstorms once the trough moves into the Plains. Run-to-run and
   model-to-model variability is less in the most recent runs than
   previous runs, but still exhibits enough variance with the evolution
   of the upper trough (particularly in its speed and strength) to
   limit forecast confidence. Given the limited forecast confidence, no
   areas will be delineated with this outlook. However, this severe
   potential bears watching closely and outlook areas may be needed in
   subsequent forecasts if forecast confidence increases.

   ..Mosier.. 03/23/2019


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: March 23, 2019
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