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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 13, 2022
Updated: Sat Aug 13 08:58:03 UTC 2022
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Tue, Aug 16, 2022 - Wed, Aug 17, 2022 D7Fri, Aug 19, 2022 - Sat, Aug 20, 2022
D5Wed, Aug 17, 2022 - Thu, Aug 18, 2022 D8Sat, Aug 20, 2022 - Sun, Aug 21, 2022
D6Thu, Aug 18, 2022 - Fri, Aug 19, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 130856
   SPC AC 130856

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022

   Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Little change to the upper pattern should occur through at least the
   middle of next week, with a large-scale upper ridge remaining over
   much of the western/central CONUS, and an upper trough over the
   eastern states. Organized severe thunderstorm potential also appears
   relatively low, as modest mid-level winds should generally limit
   deep-layer shear. From Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, the
   best potential for occasionally strong convection should focus along
   and south of a front that is forecast to slowly sag southward across
   parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Southeast.
   Modest mid-level northwesterly winds may exist between the upper
   ridge and trough across portions of these regions. Still, deep-layer
   shear appears too weak to support more than an isolated threat for
   marginally severe thunderstorms each afternoon.

   The potential for the upper ridge to be suppressed by a weak
   mid-level perturbation from Day 7/Friday into next weekend remains
   unclear. If this evolution occurs and an upper trough can develop
   across parts of the north-central states towards the Great Lakes
   vicinity, then some severe risk may ultimately develop across parts
   of the central/eastern CONUS in this time frame. However, organized
   severe thunderstorm chances still appear rather low, as a fair
   amount of uncertainty remains regarding the possible upper ridge
   breakdown.

   ..Gleason.. 08/13/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: August 13, 2022
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