(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 150846
SPC AC 150846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance indicates that a closed low will form within
an amplifying short wave trough digging southeast of the southern
Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by early Friday. It appears
probable that this will become cut off from the westerlies, with the
center of the modestly broad circulation lingering near or southwest
of the Four Corners into early Sunday, as low-amplitude ridging
passes by to the north, near the western through central
Canadian/U.S. border area. Sunday into Monday, models suggest that
it may come under the influence of strengthening westerly mean flow,
transitioning to an open wave and accelerating northeastward into
the central Great Plains, before continuing to migrate around the
northeastern periphery of building mid-level ridging centered over
the subtropics.
Models continue to indicate that this is unlikely to become
accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the
southern Rockies. And low-level moisture return in the wake of
weakening cold surface ridging across the northwest Gulf Coast
region may remain modest to weak. While modestly steep lapse rates
may contribute to isolated to widely scattered strong diurnal
thunderstorm development near surface troughing to the lee of the
Front Range, Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains Friday
through Sunday, the overall severe weather potential still appears
generally low.
..Kerr.. 10/15/2024
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