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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Dec 25, 2010
Updated: Sat Dec 25 09:28:03 UTC 2010
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 25, 2010
D4Tue, Dec 28, 2010 - Wed, Dec 29, 2010 D7Fri, Dec 31, 2010 - Sat, Jan 01, 2011
D5Wed, Dec 29, 2010 - Thu, Dec 30, 2010 D8Sat, Jan 01, 2011 - Sun, Jan 02, 2011
D6Thu, Dec 30, 2010 - Fri, Dec 31, 2010 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.

PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).


 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 250927
   SPC AC 250927
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2010
   
   VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   AFTER A QUIET EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK VIA A RELATIVELY LOW
   AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN...00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE ARE
   IN AMPLE GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN...HIGHLIGHTED
   BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN-CENTRAL STATES UPPER TROUGH BY
   AROUND DAYS 6-7. INITIALLY...GIVEN A PROGGED LOW AMPLITUDE/SOUTHERN
   STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT AROUND DAY 5/WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST TX/LOWER MS VALLEY.
   HOWEVER...RETURN OF QUALITY MOISTURE IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
   SYSTEM...AND A 30 PERCENT CALIBER SEVERE RISK SEEMS UNLIKELY.
   
   THEREAFTER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
   OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EARLY
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST AROUND DAY 7/NEW
   YEARS EVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS
   VALLEY. HOWEVER...OVERALL PREDICTABILITY IS LIMITED AT THIS
   JUNCTURE...AND A SEVERE RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY WARRANTED.
   
   ..GUYER.. 12/25/2010

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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