Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Dec 25, 2010
Updated: Sat Dec 25 09:28:03 UTC 2010
|D4||Tue, Dec 28, 2010 - Wed, Dec 29, 2010
||D7||Fri, Dec 31, 2010 - Sat, Jan 01, 2011
|D5||Wed, Dec 29, 2010 - Thu, Dec 30, 2010
||D8||Sat, Jan 01, 2011 - Sun, Jan 02, 2011
|D6||Thu, Dec 30, 2010 - Fri, Dec 31, 2010
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather
area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability
for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be
possible based on some model scenarios.
However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt
due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe
storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250927
SPC AC 250927
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2010
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
AFTER A QUIET EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK VIA A RELATIVELY LOW
AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN...00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE ARE
IN AMPLE GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN...HIGHLIGHTED
BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN-CENTRAL STATES UPPER TROUGH BY
AROUND DAYS 6-7. INITIALLY...GIVEN A PROGGED LOW AMPLITUDE/SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AROUND DAY 5/WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST TX/LOWER MS VALLEY.
HOWEVER...RETURN OF QUALITY MOISTURE IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND A 30 PERCENT CALIBER SEVERE RISK SEEMS UNLIKELY.
THEREAFTER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST AROUND DAY 7/NEW
YEARS EVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY. HOWEVER...OVERALL PREDICTABILITY IS LIMITED AT THIS
JUNCTURE...AND A SEVERE RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY WARRANTED.
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