|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 26, 2011|
|Updated: Tue Jul 26 08:01:02 UTC 2011|
|D4||Fri, Jul 29, 2011 - Sat, Jul 30, 2011
||D7||Mon, Aug 01, 2011 - Tue, Aug 02, 2011
|D5||Sat, Jul 30, 2011 - Sun, Jul 31, 2011
||D8||Tue, Aug 02, 2011 - Wed, Aug 03, 2011
|D6||Sun, Jul 31, 2011 - Mon, Aug 01, 2011
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260800
SPC AC 260800
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011
VALID 291200Z - 031200Z
SPEED MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN WLYS AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NERN STATES. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS IN AN AREA FROM PA/NY INTO NEW ENGLAND.
...SAT AND SUN...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NWD AND SHIFT WLY/S INTO SRN CANADA WITH
MAINLY PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED AROUND FRINGES OF UPPER
...MON AND TUE...
THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BE FLATTENED ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND THE WLY/S DROP SWD...AS A
RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA.
HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE MOTION AND STRENGTH OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE MREF
OR GFS. IN ANY EVENT...THIS FRONT MAY BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED THAN
MOST FRONTS THIS PAST MONTH...AND THERE COULD BE SOME ORGANIZED
AREAS OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE AND LOCATION TO CONSIDER A SEVERE
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