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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 26, 2011
Updated: Tue Jul 26 08:01:02 UTC 2011
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 26, 2011
D4Fri, Jul 29, 2011 - Sat, Jul 30, 2011 D7Mon, Aug 01, 2011 - Tue, Aug 02, 2011
D5Sat, Jul 30, 2011 - Sun, Jul 31, 2011 D8Tue, Aug 02, 2011 - Wed, Aug 03, 2011
D6Sun, Jul 31, 2011 - Mon, Aug 01, 2011 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 260800
   SPC AC 260800
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011
   
   VALID 291200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...FRI...
   SPEED MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN WLYS AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH
   WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NERN STATES. DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORMS IN AN AREA FROM PA/NY INTO NEW ENGLAND.
   
   ...SAT AND SUN...
   UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NWD AND SHIFT WLY/S INTO SRN CANADA WITH
   MAINLY PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED AROUND FRINGES OF UPPER
   RIDGE.
   
   ...MON AND TUE...
   THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
   BE FLATTENED ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND THE WLY/S DROP SWD...AS A
   RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA.
   HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE MOTION AND STRENGTH OF
   THIS TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE MREF
   OR GFS. IN ANY EVENT...THIS FRONT MAY BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED THAN
   MOST FRONTS THIS PAST MONTH...AND THERE COULD BE SOME ORGANIZED
   AREAS OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH
   UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE AND LOCATION TO CONSIDER A SEVERE 
   OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ..IMY.. 07/26/2011

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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