|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 6, 2011|
|Updated: Sat Aug 6 08:01:03 UTC 2011|
|D4||Tue, Aug 09, 2011 - Wed, Aug 10, 2011
||D7||Fri, Aug 12, 2011 - Sat, Aug 13, 2011
|D5||Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - Thu, Aug 11, 2011
||D8||Sat, Aug 13, 2011 - Sun, Aug 14, 2011
|D6||Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - Fri, Aug 12, 2011
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060800
SPC AC 060800
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2011
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH PRIMARY ZONE OF WLYS FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC DAY 4-5. A SERIES
OF IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WNWLY FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. GREATER SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN
VICINITY OF THE DEEPER BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
ESEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER...AREAS
OF SEVERE STORM CONCENTRATION WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE FACTORS SUCH
AS LOCATION AND EFFECTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND ONGOING
CONVECTION. GIVEN THESE MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES...PREFER TO WAIT
UNTIL NEXT DAY 3 ISSUANCE BEFORE INTRODUCING AN ENHANCED COVERAGE
SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA.
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT