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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 6, 2011
Updated: Sat Aug 6 08:01:03 UTC 2011
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 6, 2011
D4Tue, Aug 09, 2011 - Wed, Aug 10, 2011 D7Fri, Aug 12, 2011 - Sat, Aug 13, 2011
D5Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - Thu, Aug 11, 2011 D8Sat, Aug 13, 2011 - Sun, Aug 14, 2011
D6Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - Fri, Aug 12, 2011 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 060800
   SPC AC 060800
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2011
   
   VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   
   MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW
   AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH PRIMARY ZONE OF WLYS FROM THE
   PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC DAY 4-5. A SERIES
   OF IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WNWLY FLOW PATTERN
   ALOFT. GREATER SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN
   VICINITY OF THE DEEPER BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
   ESEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER...AREAS
   OF SEVERE STORM CONCENTRATION WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE FACTORS SUCH
   AS LOCATION AND EFFECTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND ONGOING
   CONVECTION. GIVEN THESE MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES...PREFER TO WAIT
   UNTIL NEXT DAY 3 ISSUANCE BEFORE INTRODUCING AN ENHANCED COVERAGE
   SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA.
   
   ..DIAL.. 08/06/2011

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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