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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 7, 2011
Updated: Sun Aug 7 08:00:03 UTC 2011
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 7, 2011
D4Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - Thu, Aug 11, 2011 D7Sat, Aug 13, 2011 - Sun, Aug 14, 2011
D5Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - Fri, Aug 12, 2011 D8Sun, Aug 14, 2011 - Mon, Aug 15, 2011
D6Fri, Aug 12, 2011 - Sat, Aug 13, 2011 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 070758
   SPC AC 070758
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011
   
   VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   
   SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY OVER THE ERN U.S. AND PATTERN
   WILL TRANSITION BACK TO AN ELONGATED RIDGE OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE
   COUNTRY WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN HALF. SEVERAL IMPULSES
   WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS BELT OF STRONGER FLOW...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
   WILL BE MODULATED BY TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AS WELL AS EFFECTS OF
   ONGOING CONVECTION AND ATTENDANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH LOWER
   OVERALL PREDICTABILITY. THE MOST ACTIVE CORRIDOR FOR SEVERE STORMS
   WILL LIKELY EXIST IN VICINITY OF NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM
   THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DAY 4 AND INTO THE NRN
   PLAINS BY DAY 5 AS MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NWD AHEAD OF ANOTHER
   PROGRESSIVE TROUGH.
   
   ..DIAL.. 08/07/2011

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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