|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 9, 2011|
|Updated: Tue Aug 9 08:48:03 UTC 2011|
|D4||Fri, Aug 12, 2011 - Sat, Aug 13, 2011
||D7||Mon, Aug 15, 2011 - Tue, Aug 16, 2011
|D5||Sat, Aug 13, 2011 - Sun, Aug 14, 2011
||D8||Tue, Aug 16, 2011 - Wed, Aug 17, 2011
|D6||Sun, Aug 14, 2011 - Mon, Aug 15, 2011
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 090847
SPC AC 090847
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT TUE AUG 09 2011
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY BY DAY 5
CONTINUING INTO DAY 6 TRANSITIONING TO MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ERN
STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.
DAY 4 /FRIDAY/- SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY. SELY TRAJECTORIES FROM
RETREATING RIDGE OVER THE OH VALLEY MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE THE RICHER MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
THE MOISTER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH IN
VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS WHERE STORMS MAY BE IN PROGRESS AT START OF THE PERIOD. WHILE
A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP FROM THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AND FARTHER
SOUTH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AS SHEAR INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EFFECTS OF ONGOING STORMS AND
EVOLUTION OF THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PRECLUDE INTRODUCING A
GREATER COVERAGE RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
DAY 5 /SATURDAY/- THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE OH AND
TN VALLEYS DAY 5 WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT...BUT GIVEN SIMILAR
CONCERNS AS MENTIONED FOR DAY 4...CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TO PLACE A
GREATER COVERAGE EVENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME.
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