|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 10, 2011|
|Updated: Wed Aug 10 08:18:03 UTC 2011|
|D4||Sat, Aug 13, 2011 - Sun, Aug 14, 2011
||D7||Tue, Aug 16, 2011 - Wed, Aug 17, 2011
|D5||Sun, Aug 14, 2011 - Mon, Aug 15, 2011
||D8||Wed, Aug 17, 2011 - Thu, Aug 18, 2011
|D6||Mon, Aug 15, 2011 - Tue, Aug 16, 2011
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 100817
SPC AC 100817
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2011
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
ERN STATES BY DAY 4 /SATURDAY/ AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO
SWRN BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION FROM THE
MID MS THROUGH TN AND OH VALLEYS.
DAY 4 /SATURDAY/ PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE SOMEWHERE FROM
THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS AS MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED EWD AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH COINCIDENT
WITH STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT. LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION INCREASES UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHERE THE BEST DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL AND RESULTING
CORRIDORS OF HIGHER SEVERE COVERAGE WILL BE.
DAY 5 / SUNDAY/ SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE FROM ERN
PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITHIN BELT
OF STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. GIVEN
LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD ONGOING STORMS...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO DELINEATE WHERE A GREATER COVERAGE SEVERE EVENT WILL OCCUR
AT THIS TIME.
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT