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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 10, 2011
Updated: Wed Aug 10 08:18:03 UTC 2011
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 10, 2011
D4Sat, Aug 13, 2011 - Sun, Aug 14, 2011 D7Tue, Aug 16, 2011 - Wed, Aug 17, 2011
D5Sun, Aug 14, 2011 - Mon, Aug 15, 2011 D8Wed, Aug 17, 2011 - Thu, Aug 18, 2011
D6Mon, Aug 15, 2011 - Tue, Aug 16, 2011 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 100817
   SPC AC 100817
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2011
   
   VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   
   MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
   ERN STATES BY DAY 4 /SATURDAY/ AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO
   SWRN BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION FROM THE
   MID MS THROUGH TN AND OH VALLEYS.
   
   DAY 4 /SATURDAY/ PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE SOMEWHERE FROM
   THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS AS MOISTURE
   IS ADVECTED EWD AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH COINCIDENT
   WITH STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT. LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD ONGOING
   CONVECTION OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION INCREASES UNCERTAINTY
   REGARDING WHERE THE BEST DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL AND RESULTING
   CORRIDORS OF HIGHER SEVERE COVERAGE WILL BE.
   
   DAY 5 / SUNDAY/ SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE FROM ERN
   PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITHIN BELT
   OF STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. GIVEN
   LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD ONGOING STORMS...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
   EXISTS TO DELINEATE WHERE A GREATER COVERAGE SEVERE EVENT WILL OCCUR
   
   AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..DIAL.. 08/10/2011
   
   ..DIAL.. 08/10/2011

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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