|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 22, 2012|
|Updated: Wed Aug 22 08:50:04 UTC 2012|
|D4||Sat, Aug 25, 2012 - Sun, Aug 26, 2012
||D7||Tue, Aug 28, 2012 - Wed, Aug 29, 2012
|D5||Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - Mon, Aug 27, 2012
||D8||Wed, Aug 29, 2012 - Thu, Aug 30, 2012
|D6||Mon, Aug 27, 2012 - Tue, Aug 28, 2012
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 220849
SPC AC 220849
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2012
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
RELATIVELY QUIESCENT PATTERN FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE COVERAGE IN MOST
OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS S-CNTRL CANADA ON D4...WITH A BELT OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS LARGELY DIVORCED FROM A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING
SEWD IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THEREAFTER...CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE HAS
NOW TRENDED TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AS A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH DIGS OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST.
PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE FROM TC ISAAC WITH ANY POSSIBLE
CONUS LANDFALL. BUT AS NOTED BY NHC/HPC...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE OVER THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PERIOD.
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