Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 24, 2013
Updated: Fri May 24 08:45:03 UTC 2013
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Mon, May 27, 2013 - Tue, May 28, 2013
Thu, May 30, 2013 - Fri, May 31, 2013
Tue, May 28, 2013 - Wed, May 29, 2013
Fri, May 31, 2013 - Sat, Jun 01, 2013
Wed, May 29, 2013 - Thu, May 30, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240844
SPC AC 240844
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
VALID 271200Z - 011200Z
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING WRN U.S.
TROUGHING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY /DAY 6/ BUT DIFFER QUITE
SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.
EPISODIC STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
EJECTING SMALLER-SCALE SPEED MAXIMA AHEAD OF THE LARGER-SCALE WRN
U.S. TROUGH ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY /DAY 4-5/. ISOLD SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR MOST PROBABLE TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY /DAY 4/ AND THEN PERHAPS OVER A MORE
EXPANSIVE AREA ON TUESDAY /DAY 5/...ADDITIONALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF THE SRN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE MAGNITUDE/COVERAGE OF SEVERE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY /DAY 6/...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE QUALITY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS/MID MO VALLEYS DESPITE MODEL VARIABILITY.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE EVOLUTION
OF AN E PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE WRN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
VARIABILITY RANGING FROM AN OPEN TROUGH TO A SLOWER CLOSED LOW
SOLUTION OVER THE SWRN U.S. AS A RESULT...SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY
FOR SEVERE EXISTS BY WEDNESDAY /DAY 6/ OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS
GIVEN MODEL PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN
U.S. TROUGH EVENTUALLY INFLUENCING CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT