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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 24, 2013
Updated: Fri May 24 08:45:03 UTC 2013
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 24, 2013
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Mon, May 27, 2013 - Tue, May 28, 2013 D7Thu, May 30, 2013 - Fri, May 31, 2013
D5Tue, May 28, 2013 - Wed, May 29, 2013 D8Fri, May 31, 2013 - Sat, Jun 01, 2013
D6Wed, May 29, 2013 - Thu, May 30, 2013 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 240844
   SPC AC 240844

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

   VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING WRN U.S.
   TROUGHING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY /DAY 6/ BUT DIFFER QUITE
   SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.
   EPISODIC STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
   EJECTING SMALLER-SCALE SPEED MAXIMA AHEAD OF THE LARGER-SCALE WRN
   U.S. TROUGH ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY /DAY 4-5/.  ISOLD SEVERE
   STORMS APPEAR MOST PROBABLE TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
   NRN PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY /DAY 4/ AND THEN PERHAPS OVER A MORE
   EXPANSIVE AREA ON TUESDAY /DAY 5/...ADDITIONALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS
   OF THE SRN PLAINS.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAGNITUDE/COVERAGE OF SEVERE
   IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA.

   BY WEDNESDAY /DAY 6/...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE QUALITY OF LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD INTO THE CNTRL
   PLAINS/MID MO VALLEYS DESPITE MODEL VARIABILITY.
   HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE EVOLUTION
   OF AN E PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE WRN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
   VARIABILITY RANGING FROM AN OPEN TROUGH TO A SLOWER CLOSED LOW
   SOLUTION OVER THE SWRN U.S.  AS A RESULT...SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY
   FOR SEVERE EXISTS BY WEDNESDAY /DAY 6/ OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS
   GIVEN MODEL PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN
   U.S. TROUGH EVENTUALLY INFLUENCING CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
   CNTRL U.S.

   ..SMITH.. 05/24/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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