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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 28, 2013
Updated: Tue May 28 08:48:03 UTC 2013
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 28, 2013
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D4 47,297 2,370,600 Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Joplin, MO...Ponca City, OK...Weatherford, OK...
D4Fri, May 31, 2013 - Sat, Jun 01, 2013 D7Mon, Jun 03, 2013 - Tue, Jun 04, 2013
D5Sat, Jun 01, 2013 - Sun, Jun 02, 2013 D8Tue, Jun 04, 2013 - Wed, Jun 05, 2013
D6Sun, Jun 02, 2013 - Mon, Jun 03, 2013 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 280847
   SPC AC 280847

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

   VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   AN EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL WEAKEN
   DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER
   AIR PATTERN ENSUING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
   BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER TX/NRN MEXICO.  THE PROSPECTS FOR
   CONCENTRATED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
   THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY /DAY 4/. 
   A BROAD BELT OF STRONG WLY MID-UPPER FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE CNTRL
   U.S. TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
   OVER PARTS OF OK/KS --WARRANTING A 30 PERCENT AREA FOR FRIDAY /DAY
   4/-- AND INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERAL INTENSE STORMS.  A
   SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND FARTHER NE INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST BUT
   DETAILS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE/COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBLE THREAT ARE
   UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  BY SATURDAY /DAY 5/...SOME SEVERE THREAT
   MAY EXIST FROM THE S-CNTRL U.S. NEWD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. 
   BEYOND SATURDAY /DAY 5/...A MORE BENIGN LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN
   WILL SEEMINGLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE 30 PERCENT SEVERE
   PROBABILITY AREAS.

   ..SMITH.. 05/28/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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