Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 28, 2013
Updated: Tue May 28 08:48:03 UTC 2013
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Joplin, MO...Ponca City, OK...Weatherford, OK...
Fri, May 31, 2013 - Sat, Jun 01, 2013
Mon, Jun 03, 2013 - Tue, Jun 04, 2013
Sat, Jun 01, 2013 - Sun, Jun 02, 2013
Tue, Jun 04, 2013 - Wed, Jun 05, 2013
Sun, Jun 02, 2013 - Mon, Jun 03, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 280847
SPC AC 280847
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
AN EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER
AIR PATTERN ENSUING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER TX/NRN MEXICO. THE PROSPECTS FOR
CONCENTRATED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY /DAY 4/.
A BROAD BELT OF STRONG WLY MID-UPPER FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE CNTRL
U.S. TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVER PARTS OF OK/KS --WARRANTING A 30 PERCENT AREA FOR FRIDAY /DAY
4/-- AND INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERAL INTENSE STORMS. A
SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND FARTHER NE INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST BUT
DETAILS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE/COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBLE THREAT ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. BY SATURDAY /DAY 5/...SOME SEVERE THREAT
MAY EXIST FROM THE S-CNTRL U.S. NEWD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
BEYOND SATURDAY /DAY 5/...A MORE BENIGN LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN
WILL SEEMINGLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE 30 PERCENT SEVERE
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