Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 12, 2013
Updated: Tue Nov 12 09:27:03 UTC 2013
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 12, 2013
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Fri, Nov 15, 2013 - Sat, Nov 16, 2013 D7Mon, Nov 18, 2013 - Tue, Nov 19, 2013
D5Sat, Nov 16, 2013 - Sun, Nov 17, 2013 D8Tue, Nov 19, 2013 - Wed, Nov 20, 2013
D6Sun, Nov 17, 2013 - Mon, Nov 18, 2013 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 120925
   SPC AC 120925

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0325 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013

   VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
   GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND INLAND MOISTURE
   RETURN WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN THE
   RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
   WEEKEND.  THEREAFTER...THIS POTENTIAL BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCLEAR
   DUE TO MODEL DISPARITY AND LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES
   CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN MULTIPLE DISTINCT
   MID/UPPER FLOW BELTS EVOLVING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA INTO NEXT WEEK. 
   STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS A REASONABLE ENOUGH POSSIBILITY
   BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY /DAYS 7 AND 8/...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...THAT A REGIONAL-TYPE
   SEVERE WEATHER EVENT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
   SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES INTO AREAS EAST OF THE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  BUT...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING
   PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE...AND MORE PRECISE LOCATION...TO DELINEATE
   AN AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME.

   ..KERR.. 11/12/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: November 12, 2013
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities