Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 12, 2013
Updated: Tue Nov 12 09:27:03 UTC 2013
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Fri, Nov 15, 2013 - Sat, Nov 16, 2013
Mon, Nov 18, 2013 - Tue, Nov 19, 2013
Sat, Nov 16, 2013 - Sun, Nov 17, 2013
Tue, Nov 19, 2013 - Wed, Nov 20, 2013
Sun, Nov 17, 2013 - Mon, Nov 18, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 120925
SPC AC 120925
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND INLAND MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN THE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...THIS POTENTIAL BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCLEAR
DUE TO MODEL DISPARITY AND LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES
CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN MULTIPLE DISTINCT
MID/UPPER FLOW BELTS EVOLVING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA INTO NEXT WEEK.
STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS A REASONABLE ENOUGH POSSIBILITY
BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY /DAYS 7 AND 8/...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...THAT A REGIONAL-TYPE
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES INTO AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BUT...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE...AND MORE PRECISE LOCATION...TO DELINEATE
AN AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME.
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT