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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 27, 2014
Updated: Tue May 27 08:57:03 UTC 2014
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 27, 2014
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Fri, May 30, 2014 - Sat, May 31, 2014 D7Mon, Jun 02, 2014 - Tue, Jun 03, 2014
D5Sat, May 31, 2014 - Sun, Jun 01, 2014 D8Tue, Jun 03, 2014 - Wed, Jun 04, 2014
D6Sun, Jun 01, 2014 - Mon, Jun 02, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 270855
   SPC AC 270855

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

   VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
   UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND MOVE THIS
   FEATURE SLOWLY EWD ON FRIDAY/DAY 4. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE NRN PLAINS ON THE BACK
   SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL
   PLAINS ON SATURDAY/DAY 5 AS SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
   FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MT EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHERE
   THE MODELS FORECAST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH THE ECMWF
   DEVELOPING NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG A TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   ACROSS MUCH OF MN. IF THIS SOLUTION WHERE TO VERIFY...THEN A
   SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.
   HOWEVER...THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE ON SATURDAY SUGGESTING THIS
   POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN. ON SUNDAY/DAY 6...THE MODELS MOVE AN
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH SOUTHWEST
   MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS. SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS COULD AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY/DAY 7...CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
   ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. THIS MAKES PREDICTABILITY LOW FOR THE
   SEVERE THREAT POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. ATTM...WILL NOT ADD A SEVERE
   THREAT AREA IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY FOR SATURDAY/DAY 5 DUE TO
   DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

   ..BROYLES.. 05/27/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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