Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 29, 2014
Updated: Thu May 29 08:52:03 UTC 2014
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Sun, Jun 01, 2014 - Mon, Jun 02, 2014
Wed, Jun 04, 2014 - Thu, Jun 05, 2014
Mon, Jun 02, 2014 - Tue, Jun 03, 2014
Thu, Jun 05, 2014 - Fri, Jun 06, 2014
Tue, Jun 03, 2014 - Wed, Jun 04, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290850
SPC AC 290850
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
THE ECMWF AND GFS MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN STATES...SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A
BROAD CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ON MONDAY/DAY 5...THE GFS
DEVELOPS ZONAL FLOW IN THE NCNTRL STATES WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
DIFFER...BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY/DAY 6...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE
MARKEDLY DIFFERENT. THE ECMWF APPEARS MORE REASONABLE...DRIVING A
COLD FRONT SEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY WHERE
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEYOND DAY 6...MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR
THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL STATES. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF AN OUTLOOK AREA.
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