Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 2, 2014
Updated: Mon Jun 2 09:01:03 UTC 2014
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Thu, Jun 05, 2014 - Fri, Jun 06, 2014
Sun, Jun 08, 2014 - Mon, Jun 09, 2014
Fri, Jun 06, 2014 - Sat, Jun 07, 2014
Mon, Jun 09, 2014 - Tue, Jun 10, 2014
Sat, Jun 07, 2014 - Sun, Jun 08, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020900
SPC AC 020900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2014
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 4-8 PERIOD...BUT SOLUTIONS BECOME
INCREASINGLY DISPERSIVE BY DAYS 6-7. SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DAYS 4-6 IN VICINITY MEANDERING BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD PERSIST FROM
THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY /DAY 4/ FROM A PORTION OF SRN VA
SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND FARTHER WEST INTO THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY
AND CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AREA IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN
LIKELIHOOD OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...WILL MAINTAIN LOW PREDICTABILITY
FOR NOW BUT A SLIGHT RISK WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED FOR
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS IN THE DAY 3 UPDATE.
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM PORTIONS OF KS AND
OK INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION DAYS 5-6. WEAK IMPULSES WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AND INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ONCE CONSISTENCY
AMONG THE MODELS IS ASCERTAINED...THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
INCLUDED IN A RISK AREA IN LATER UPDATES.
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