Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 6, 2014
Updated: Fri Jun 6 08:27:04 UTC 2014
Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Jun 09, 2014 - Tue, Jun 10, 2014
D7
Thu, Jun 12, 2014 - Fri, Jun 13, 2014
D5
Tue, Jun 10, 2014 - Wed, Jun 11, 2014
D8
Fri, Jun 13, 2014 - Sat, Jun 14, 2014
D6
Wed, Jun 11, 2014 - Thu, Jun 12, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060826
SPC AC 060826
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY/DAY 4 FROM CENTRAL/SRN TX NEWD TO THE TN VALLEY AND
TUESDAY/DAY 5 INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-SOUTH AS THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
PARTS OF THIS REGION DAY 4-5 BUT GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
LACK OF STRONGER FORCING WILL LEAVE THE THREAT RELATIVELY UNFOCUSED.
FINER-SCALE DETAILS OF ANY SFC FEATURES WHICH MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THIS REGION ARE ALSO UNCERTAIN DUE TO EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IN THE FRI-SUN/DAY 1-3 PERIOD.
ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN THE
WAKE OF THE EWD PROGRESSING TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHEN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ONSHORE AND AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR PARTS OF THE PLAINS
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
..LEITMAN.. 06/06/2014
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