Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 2, 2015
Updated: Thu Apr 2 09:02:02 UTC 2015
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Apr 05, 2015 - Mon, Apr 06, 2015
D7
Wed, Apr 08, 2015 - Thu, Apr 09, 2015
D5
Mon, Apr 06, 2015 - Tue, Apr 07, 2015
D8
Thu, Apr 09, 2015 - Fri, Apr 10, 2015
D6
Tue, Apr 07, 2015 - Wed, Apr 08, 2015
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020900
SPC AC 020900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT AT
THIS TIME...WITH THE UPPER PATTERN PROGGED TO FEATURE A WRN U.S.
TROUGH AND A DOWNSTREAM ZONE OF VERY WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC WSWLY FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. THROUGH MOST/ALL OF THE PERIOD.
WITH EWD RETREAT OF A SURFACE HIGH INTO THE ATLANTIC EXPECTED EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AND PERSISTENT CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGHING/CYCLOGENESIS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE WSWLYS ALOFT ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE...RETURN OF INCREASINGLY RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. IS EXPECTED WITH TIME.
GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THETA E BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS...DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MODERATE CAPE
EACH AFTERNOON BEYOND DAY 5 ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS AND
EWD TOWARD/ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AREA. IN ADDITION...WITH FAST WSWLY
FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR WOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...AND
THUS IN AN OVERALL SENSE -- CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
SHOULD EXIST EACH DAY. HOWEVER -- GIVEN THE WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF OBVIOUS TROUGHING EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH DAY 6-7...GENERALLY WEAK ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING
ISSUES WILL LIKELY HINDER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO SOME DEGREE IN
MANY AREAS. THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS ATTM LIKELY TO BE
CONFINED TO SPATIALLY SMALLER/HARD-TO-PREDICT AREAS...AND THUS WILL
REFRAIN FROM DELINEATING ANY 15% AREAS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED...ISSUANCE OF
RISK AREAS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN SHORTER-TERM OUTLOOKS NEARER
THE EVENTS.
..GOSS.. 04/02/2015
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