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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 4, 2015
Updated: Sat Apr 4 09:00:03 UTC 2015
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 4, 2015
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 4, 2015
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 4, 2015
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 110,877 9,066,286 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Overland Park, KS...
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 4, 2015
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 140,025 11,090,595 Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Springfield, IL...
15 % 111,674 21,474,605 Chicago, IL...Dallas, TX...Kansas City, MO...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 4, 2015
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 4, 2015
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Tue, Apr 07, 2015 - Wed, Apr 08, 2015 D7Fri, Apr 10, 2015 - Sat, Apr 11, 2015
D5Wed, Apr 08, 2015 - Thu, Apr 09, 2015 D8Sat, Apr 11, 2015 - Sun, Apr 12, 2015
D6Thu, Apr 09, 2015 - Fri, Apr 10, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 040858
   SPC AC 040858

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CDT SAT APR 04 2015

   VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   LATEST RUNS OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS EXHIBIT DECENT AGREEMENT INTO
   THE DAY 6 /THU. 4-9/ TIME PERIOD...PROJECTING THE WRN U.S. TROUGH TO
   BECOME PROGRESSIVE AND TRAVERSE THE ROCKIES THROUGH DAY 5 BEFORE
   SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS DAY 6.  FROM LATE IN THE DAY 6 PERIOD
   ONWARD...SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASES SUCH THAT LOW
   FORECAST CONFIDENCE PREVAILS DAYS 7 AND 8.

   SEVERE-WEATHER RISK APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD --
   BUT A GRADUAL RAMP-UP IN RISK EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH DAY 6
   APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S. AS THE WRN TROUGH APPROACHES -- AND
   EVENTUALLY REACHES -- THE CENTRAL CONUS.  THOUGH AIRMASS ACROSS THE
   OK/ERN KS/MO/AR/N TX VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON DAY 4 /TUE.
   4-7/ WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE...WEAK RIDGING PERSISTING
   ALOFT -- AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK SUBSIDENCE -- SHOULD PERMIT CAPPING AT
   THE BOTTOM OF THE EML LAYER TO PERSIST IN MOST AREAS.  THIS SUGGESTS
   THAT STORM INITIATION /AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK/ SHOULD REMAIN
   RELATIVELY ISOLATED.

   SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
   THE AFTERNOON ON DAY 5 /WED. 4-8/...AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN AHEAD
   OF THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.  WHILE EJECTION OF ANY APPRECIABLE
   LEAD WAVE IS NOT EVIDENT ATTM...A LESS SUBSIDENT/MORE NEUTRAL
   BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE UVV SUGGESTS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CAP
   BREACHES/STORM INITIATION -- PRIMARILY ACROSS THE ERN KS/MO/OK
   VICINITY.  WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR
   EXPECTED...ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS...AND ASSOCIATED RISK
   FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

   WHILE ONGOING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT DAY 5 AND INTO EARLY DAY 6
   LIKELY...ASCERTAINING DEGREE AND LOCATION OF SEVERE RISK DAY 6
   PRESENTS SOME DIFFICULTY ATTM.  WITH THAT SAID...THE ADVANCE OF THE
   WRN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UVV INTO THE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PERMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION -- FOCUSED INVOF THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE ADVANCING
   ACROSS ERN KS/CENTRAL OK NEAR PEAK HEATING.  WITH SUBSTANTIAL
   INSTABILITY LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AND A FAVORABLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT...A FAIRLY BROAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING ZONE OF RISK FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES IS EVIDENT
   -- EXTENDING FROM IL SWWD ACROSS MO/AR INTO SERN KS/ERN OK AND
   POSSIBLY INTO N CENTRAL/NERN TX.

   ..GOSS.. 04/04/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: April 04, 2015
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