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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 5, 2015
Updated: Sun Apr 5 09:00:03 UTC 2015
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 5, 2015
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 5, 2015
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 156,183 11,045,431 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Overland Park, KS...
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 5, 2015
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 151,606 12,972,472 Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...Little Rock, AR...Overland Park, KS...
15 % 184,318 28,785,219 Chicago, IL...Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Milwaukee, WI...
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 5, 2015
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 5, 2015
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 5, 2015
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Wed, Apr 08, 2015 - Thu, Apr 09, 2015 D7Sat, Apr 11, 2015 - Sun, Apr 12, 2015
D5Thu, Apr 09, 2015 - Fri, Apr 10, 2015 D8Sun, Apr 12, 2015 - Mon, Apr 13, 2015
D6Fri, Apr 10, 2015 - Sat, Apr 11, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 050858
   SPC AC 050858

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CDT SUN APR 05 2015

   VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   APPRECIABLE SPREAD -- EVEN MORE THAN 24 HOURS PRIOR -- IS EVIDENT
   AMONGST THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS THIS FORECAST...WITH THE GFS
   SHIFTING THE WRN TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS FASTER AND WITH MORE OF A
   POSITIVE TILT...WHILE THE UKMET AND PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF DEPICT A
   SLOWER AND MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT PROGRESSION.  AS A RESULT
   OF THESE DIFFERENCES -- AND THE ASSOCIATED VARIANCES IN SURFACE
   FEATURE LOCATIONS IN THE DAY 4-5 TIME FRAME...SPECIFICS OF THE
   SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/LOCATION REMAIN
   DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN.

   DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN UPPER
   LOW/TROUGH...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THIS FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO
   SEVERE RISK FOR DAY 4 /WED 4-8/ ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN OK/ERN KS/MO.
    ALL MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND
   AT LEAST HINTS OF A SUBTLE/EMBEDDED WAVE CROSSING THE REGION NEAR
   PEAK HEATING.  ATTM...EXPECT RESULTING UVV TO BE SUFFICIENT ATOP THE
   EWD-MIXING DRYLINE TO PERMIT CAP WEAKENING SUFFICIENT TO YIELD
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WITH A
   VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TOPPED BY STEEP LAPSE
   RATES...AND A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING FLOW THAT VEERS
   SUBSTANTIALLY AND INCREASES STEADILY WITH HEIGHT...SHEAR WILL FAVOR
   LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND ATTENDANT RISK FOR VERY LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
   STORM COVERAGE...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 15% PROBABILITY AREA ATTM --
   DESPITE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORM THAT
   DOES DEVELOP.

   THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS -- BUT WITH GREATER
   UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF TIMING AND AREA -- EXISTS DAY 5 /THU 4-9/. 
   DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE KS/NEB/IA VICINITY AND ADVANCE
   OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL FACILITATE
   A BROAD ZONE OF STORM INITIATION...GIVEN THE MOIST/FAVORABLY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED.  WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AS COMPARED TO
   DAY 4 GIVEN PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN MID-LEVEL JET STREAK INTO THE
   CENTRAL STATES...SUPERCELL STORMS AND ASSOCIATED RISK FOR VERY LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.

   MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE DAY 6 AND BEYOND...AND GIVEN THE
   INCREASING SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THEM...LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS
   WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
   THE PERIOD.  THUS...LOW PREDICTABILITY PRECLUDES ATTEMPTS TO
   HIGHLIGHT THREAT AREAS BEYOND DAY 5.

   ..GOSS.. 04/05/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: April 05, 2015
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